CFB Week 11 best bets: Hidden mismatches in the Saturday 7

A 4-3 record each week might seem boring, but a five-week winning streak at least gives credence to our claim that we'd get rolling after the season's first month, where we accumulated information and bad beats in seemingly equal measure. The knowledge of the teams has allowed for the outweighing of things like last week's Rutgers +18.5 fiasco to stay winning.

Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (-14, 57.5)

South Carolina faced a step down in competition against Jacksonville State, but the other Gamecocks - ranking 87th in EPA/play on offense but eighth in EPA/play defensively - are better than most think.

Even though it's back to SEC play, South Carolina gets an even worse team this week. Vanderbilt is in the 120s in EPA/play on both sides of the ball and has one lone cover on the season when Georgia phoned in a win in Nashville. The big underdog got Spencer Rattler and Co.'s attention last week, so Shane Beamer will have South Carolina ready for its last chance at an easy win this season.

Pick: South Carolina (-14)

Indiana @ Illinois (-6.5, 43.5)

Before the season, the line for this game would've been nearly three touchdowns in favor of Illinois. Downgrading the Illini for a 2-4 start and generously committing to Indiana's preseason rating (despite its best win coming in overtime against lowly Akron) would drop that line to -14. Now Indiana pulls off one upset, and this game is down under a touchdown. I can't get there, especially since the Illini are one bad quarter away from a three-game win streak and still have a shot at the Big Ten championship game.

Pick: Illinois (-6.5)

Appalachian State @ Georgia State (-2, 61.5)

It felt like Georgia State couldn't get James Madison off the field last week because every time you looked, the Dukes had the ball, but it was because the No. 2 run defense in the country forced three-and-outs and punts on repeat. That won't be the case this week, as the Panthers go from a staunch run defense to facing Appalachian State's 131st-ranked unit. Georgia State lost a strength-on-strength matchup but is now giving under a field goal at home with its strength against the Mountaineers' weakness.

Pick: Georgia State (-2)

No. 15 Oklahoma State @ Central Florida (+2.5, 65.5)

Oklahoma State goes from the hunters - underdogs in four of its five straight wins - to the hunted after winning the final edition of Bedlam. Traveling for just the second time since Sept. 23, the Cowboys go into "The Bounce House" and will need to go score-for-score with a healthy John Rhys Plumlee and RJ Harvey, who'll run rampant against Oklahoma State's run defense. After leaving it all on the field last week, it'll be a tough task for the Cowboys in a game where Central Florida would've been the favorite at most any other point this season.

Pick: Central Florida (+2.5)

Auburn @ Arkansas (-2.5, 48.5)

All it took for Arkansas to revamp its offense and save the season was the removal of offensive coordinator Dan Enos. Going from three points against Mississippi State to 39 at Florida was an unfathomable flip, but it helps that the Razorbacks got back star tailback Rocket Sanders.

That win showed heart, which suggests the Hogs are interested in a bowl appearance. That's something they can earn with three more wins, all home games. Speaking of Razorback Stadium, they return home for their first game since the embarrassing loss to the Bulldogs.

Auburn's back-to-back wins against Vanderbilt and Mississippi State aren't enough to bump its rating up to a point where the Tigers should be getting less than a field goal.

Pick: Arkansas (-2.5)

Washington State @ California (PK, 59.5)

After a 4-0 start, the season has officially fallen apart for Washington State, as signified by a home loss to Stanford in which the Cougars scored only seven points in their fifth straight loss. California also has a losing streak, but there's nothing on the Golden Bears' resume nearly as ugly, with losses to Oregon State, Utah, USC, and Oregon.

The stats look comparable between these two teams, but the Bears have something to rely on offensively - tailback Jaydn Ott - in a game that'll feel like a huge step down in competition.

Pick: California (PK)

Arizona State @ UCLA (-17, 44)

Losing 55-3 is never going to be a bad beat, but we definitely didn't sign up for three quarters without Arizona State starting quarterback Trenton Bourguet at Utah. We already knew that the Sun Devils don't work with anyone other than Bourguet, so luckily, he's back this week.

We did sign up for UCLA to get exposed by Arizona last week, and that's what we got. The Bruins have their own quarterback issues, with Ethan Garbers and Dante Moore suffering injuries in Tucson.

This line is high due to a metrics disparity dragged down on the ASU side because of a rough start to the season and last week's blowout. However, you can punch holes in UCLA's resume, which, in hindsight, features little more than a blowout win at Stanford.

Pick: Arizona State (+17)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.