CFB betting: Big 12, ACC, Big Ten title games

In the SEC and Pac-12, we've got de facto quarterfinal games, with both teams in the championship having a chance to get into the College Football Playoff.

Just one team in each of the other three Power 5 conference title games has those high aspirations. Michigan, Florida State, and Texas face challenges of varying difficulty Saturday, with the Wolverines the only team not having to follow a potential win with vigorous debate points for the last spot in the CFP.

Big 12: No. 19 Oklahoma State vs. No. 7 Texas (-15, 54.5)

Saturday, 12 p.m. EST

The only reason for this line clearing two touchdowns is the expectation that the Longhorns run up the score for style points to impress the CFP committee.

Texas was rated just behind Alabama, Ohio State, and Michigan before the season, so its contention for a national title was expected. Oklahoma State was among a third tier of Big 12 teams, which looked generous after losses to South Alabama and a struggling Iowa State. But in the loss to the Cyclones, they found Ollie Gordon.

Gordon ran for 1,471 yards in nine games and should be given the Doak Walker Award for the nation's best running back. He'll need to continue his good form against one of the country's best rushing defenses. Texas lost its top runner, Jonathon Brooks, to a torn ACL, but the Burnt Orange have a deep, colorful group of replacements, including Jaydon Blue and Savion Red.

For those with tickets on Texas to make the CFP at +300, you're probably good to hold those in the hopes a path clears later in the day. However, even if the Longhorns take a big lead, the Cowboys have shown resilience, coming from double-digit deficits to win outright against Houston and BYU. The Cowboys won't pull that off against the Longhorns, but the pressure is all on Texas. That might help keep Mike Gundy's group close in a game where the spread is fair based on both current and preseason team power ratings.

Pick: Oklahoma State (+15)

ACC: No.15 Louisville vs. No. 4 Florida State (-1.5, 47.5)

Saturday, 8 p.m. EST

The market expects Texas to try to pour it on late but believes Florida State's chances of winning the ACC title game are close to 50-50. The Seminoles would have to make the case that they're just as capable without star quarterback Jordan Travis as they were with him. For bettors, we have to decide whether it even comes to that debate.

In our lone look at the Seminoles with Tate Rodemaker taking the snaps, they survived "The Swamp," relying on defense and their run game to edge Florida 24-15 with just 134 passing yards via 12 completions on 25 attempts. Can they do that against Louisville, who got sent a message after losing the Governor's Cup?

The Cardinals' run defense ranks 17th in the country in EPA/play, compared to the Gators' ranking of 79th. Louisville was on the same level as Notre Dame, North Carolina, and Oregon State in offensive standard down success rate, while Florida had to start its backup quarterback against FSU.

If you listened carefully, CFP committee chair Boo Corrigan repeatedly said FSU was "a different team without Jordan Travis," even while ranking it in a semifinal spot. That's setting up a scenario for the committee to leave the Seminoles on the sideline if Texas wins convincingly. However, with their 70th-ranked run defense, Florida State might not be the better team on either side of the ball in Charlotte, meaning there won't be a debate to have.

Pick: Louisville moneyline (+105)

Big Ten: No. 2 Michigan vs. No. 18 Iowa (+22, 34.5)

Saturday, 8 p.m. EST

Let's put it this way - Iowa's first-half team total in the Big Ten championship is 0.5, shaded to the under at -120. This tells you the core question in Indianapolis is whether the Hawkeyes can score at all against the Wolverines. Most everyone has been left confused about how Iowa got here since its offense has led to some of the lowest game totals in football history down the stretch.

Two years ago, Michigan ran up the score late, with three of its six total touchdowns coming in the fourth quarter. This year, the Wolverines don't have the same explosiveness. More importantly, Iowa's defense was just good in 2021, but this year, its SDSR is top five in the country while ranking first in preventing explosiveness.

This point spread got as high as Michigan -23.5, in line with my projection of -23. Iowa money has come in to bring it down a hair. That suggests either Iowa will score more than expected or the Wolverines will score less. We'll bet on the latter, knowing all Michigan needs is to win and move on to the CFP. It should be able to accomplish that with conservative decision-making - kicking field goals and a running clock.

Pick: Under 34.5

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.