CFB bowl season (Part 1): Best bets for the postseason's opening day

Almost two weeks after the college football world's great debate about who should be in the playoff, we get back to conflict on the field and, more importantly, betting on it. Of course, we're still two more weeks from the big games, but six bowls on a winter Saturday will suffice.

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Georgia Southern vs. Ohio (+3.5, 48.5)

Bowl season starts with a common handicapping conundrum - do we follow roster-related steam or fade it?

Only in college football's postseason do we see a team as a considerable underdog when it would have been more than a touchdown favorite if the game had been played in November. In this case, the reason is that Ohio's longtime starting quarterback, Kurtis Rourke, is transferring for his final season. That expectation led the Myrtle Beach Bowl to open as a pick'em. Add a handful of other offensive contributors entering the portal, and now the line has crept over a field goal.

The Bobcats would have been favorites, not because of their offense - their metrics were comparable to Georgia Southern - but due to their defensive advantage. They ranked around the top 10 in various EPA/play categories and had the same standard down success rate (SDSR) as Alabama.

Senior Parker Navarro - a spring transfer from UCF - might be able to run the Bobcats' offense against the Eagles' defense, among the worst in the country during their four-game losing streak to end the season. This suggests a lean to fading the line move in the postseason opener.

Pick: Ohio (+3.5)

New Orleans Bowl

Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State (-2.5, 58.5)

Like the game above, this one opened at pick'em but is coming our way - toward market-based projection. In their final regular-season finales, Louisiana beat Louisiana-Monroe comfortably, while Jacksonville State lost by three at New Mexico State. This may be why this spread lands midway between projection and open, but those are vastly different opponents.

Neither team has massive roster issues, but Jacksonville State, like its promotion cousin James Madison, fought to get into a bowl game and boasts the better defense. Even with the slight perceived advantage for the Ragin' Cajuns playing in their home state, the Gamecocks have competed in tougher road environments and should cap a big season with a win.

Pick: Jacksonville State (-2.5)

Cure Bowl

Miami (OH) vs. Appalachian State (-6.5, 44.5)

This line has crept upward over concern at quarterback for the MAC champions. Aveon Smith - the backup to injured star Brett Gabbert - entered the portal after Miami's conference title game win. However, you wouldn't be betting on the RedHawks because of their quarterback play. You back them because they're well-coached, with a highly-ranked defense and good special teams.

Appalachian State's defense struggles to defend the run, setting up for tailback Rashad Amos to take pressure off inexperienced quarterback Henry Hesson. That'll allow Miami to hang around in a game with a higher point spread than there should be.

Pick: Miami (+6.5)

New Mexico Bowl

Fresno State vs. New Mexico State (-3.5, 51.5)

New Mexico State had been proving doubters wrong all season, right up until the point where they visited undefeated Liberty for the Conference USA championship. There's no shame in losing that game, as oddsmakers still felt good enough about the Aggies to make them the favorite in their home state.

After an 8-1 start, Fresno State dragged its way to the finish line. The program went from high hopes for a Mountain West championship to a trip to Albuquerque following three straight losses to close things out. Head coach Jeff Tedford has also stepped away due to health reasons.

A year after the Bulldogs got up for a Pac-12 team in Los Angeles, inspired by longtime quarterback Jake Haener's career finale, don't expect Fresno State to have the same enthusiasm this time around. Let's follow the market in backing the Aggies for a convincing win.

Pick: New Mexico State (-3.5)

L.A. Bowl

Boise State vs UCLA (-4.5, 48.5)

What's UCLA's interest in playing in a third-tier bowl game without even getting to go on a trip? With a handful of defensive transfers and opt-outs, their most explosive quarterback prospect hitting the portal, and their star defensive coordinator leaving for crosstown rival USC, signs point to the Bruins moving on to next season.

There was immediate interest in betting on Boise State as the line dropped close to a pick'em. But then there was a surprise when Broncos quarterback Taylen Green transferred to Arkansas, leaving Boise State with little to work with under center. UCLA's defense ranked second in the country in EPA/play, but missing personnel and D'Anton Lynn could undermine those metrics against the Broncos' star tailback Ashton Jeanty.

Offensively, the Bruins are back to Ethan Garbers at quarterback, who couldn't wrestle away the starting role from Dante Moore, weeks after a full-strength UCLA squad showed disinterest in the regular-season finale by getting pummelled versus California.

Pick: Boise State (+4.5)

Independence Bowl

California vs. Texas Tech (-3, 57.5)

Cal's win over UCLA came a day after Texas Tech got annihilated in Black Friday prime time against Texas. So, a game that would be over a field goal had it been played before those two results is now -3.

Both teams have a handful of opt-outs of varying importance, but it's more likely the Red Raiders have the talent depth from Joey Maguire's recent recruiting classes to make up for it. Texas Tech also has quarterback Behren Morton at full health.

The Red Raiders have slightly better metrics than the Golden Bears on offense and defense, which is why they're favored. But they're also the more battle-tested team with a 5-2 record in the Big 12 before the Texas game.

Pick: Texas Tech (-3)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.