CFB bowl season (Part 7): Cotton Bowl highlights a quartet of familiar games

We know the names of these ones.

Sure, they all have a sponsor attached to them, but if you close your eyes just for a second, you can hear the names of Friday's quartet and remember back to when it mattered to play in these storied bowl games.

Gator Bowl

Kentucky vs. No. 22 Clemson (-4, 44.5)

Since the infamous "Tyler from Spartanburg" incident (imagine this being a headline), Clemson beat Notre Dame handily, two other bowl teams, and in-state rival South Carolina to close the season. Yet, the line for this game has dropped since it opened at a flat -7.

Money coming in on Kentucky might be out of respect for Mark Stoops, who may have been passed over for the head job at Texas A&M, which has prevented a potential mass exodus from Lexington. Meanwhile, Dabo Swinney has seen players opt out from all three levels of the Tigers' defense.

As we saw on Wednesday, the more dramatic the line adjustment due to roster issues, the better the bet, but there isn't enough here for me to want to follow Wildcat backers at a short number.

Instead, with Cade Klubnik having played well down the stretch and veteran Devin Leary boasting a 9-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio in five games since a rough start, this is one of the better quarterback matchups of the mid-tier bowls. Plus, the Wildcats' defense hasn't been as good as in years past, and the aforementioned Clemson absences make the Tigers more susceptible than the metrics suggest. So we'll play a rare total in bowl season.

Pick: Over 44.5

Sun Bowl

No. 19 Oregon State vs. No. 16 Notre Dame (-6.5, 41.5)

Oregon State and Notre Dame are both ravaged by opt-outs and transfers ahead of this game. With Jonathan Smith off to East Lansing, the Beavers' exodus was expected, which is why the Irish opened so high. Notre Dame's roster purge came afterward, resulting in the line dropping under a touchdown.

It's impossible to know what to expect from this game, but if you skimmed the best players off of both teams - Oregon State isn't known historically for having depth, and Notre Dame is, well, Notre Dame - who has the better leftover talent? For example, the Beavers' 2022 recruiting class was 53rd nationally, while the Irish were seventh. Whose talent for next year would you prefer to be backing? Especially with Notre Dame's infrastructure still in place, while Oregon State's is in disarray.

Pick: Notre Dame (-6.5)

Liberty Bowl

Memphis vs. Iowa State (-10.5, 57.5)

It's entirely possible Iowa State will blow out Memphis in Memphis, but I have no idea how the market has gotten to this number for a Matt Campbell-led Cyclones team that you'd love to back as an underdog but rarely comes through as a big favorite.

A 42-35 win to close the regular season at Kansas State seems impressive on paper, and maybe that's sent Iowa State's rating through its ceiling, but that game was played in a foot of snow where every time the Cyclones had a decent play, they broke it for a big score: 402 of their 488 yards came on six touchdown plays.

Iowa State has the better defense, but even if you include that snowy outlier, the Cyclones were 62nd in the country by EPA/play compared to Memphis at sixth.

The Tigers closed the season with five wins in six games, losing only to SMU - arguably the best Group of 5 team this season. In its lone matchup against a Power 5 opponent this season, Memphis hung around with Missouri, losing by seven.

Pick: Memphis (+10.5)

Cotton Bowl

No. 9 Missouri vs. No. 7 Ohio State (-3.5, 48.5)

The line for the first of the New Year's Six has been a ride.

Something of a surprise after opening Ohio State -6.5, Kyle McCord transferred to Syracuse, and the line dropped to -3. Full disclosure: I bet the Buckeyes at that point, thinking it couldn't get any lower since even with a handful of opt-outs, Ohio State's roster is loaded with talent (fourth in 247Sports' 2022 recruiting rankings). Then the line dropped so low that, for two solid weeks, Missouri was a field goal favorite.

In recent days, the line has returned to the Buckeyes as favorites, partly due to a handful of players who were previously assumed to opt out announcing that they'll play in the Cotton Bowl. And as of this writing, Marvin Harrison Jr. still hasn't officially opted out.

Let's say that Harrison can't risk it and ultimately ops out - there's still too much left on the Buckeyes' roster for me to believe that a line that would've been over a touchdown should be down to a field goal.

The strategy is to wait and see if Buckeye Nation gets the news they dream of. If they do, they'll still be a good bet under a touchdown, and if Harrison doesn't play, -3 or better will become available again.

Pick: Ohio State (Wait for -3, or play -6.5 or better if Harrison plays)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.