CFB New Year's Day best bets: A fresh start to kick off the new year

You've rung in the new year with food and beverage, so maybe you're not ready for the big games just yet. The trio of matchups simultaneously played on New Year's Day hold a unique place in the heart of longtime college football fans, given the position you might find yourself each Jan. 1. Maybe wiping the slate clean at the start of a new year makes these contests feel like something more than they are, but who doesn't want to start the year a winner?

ReliaQuest Bowl

Wisconsin vs. No. 13 LSU (-10, 55.5)

Historians will look back and wonder aloud, "How did Wisconsin get a New Year's Day bowl game in 2023?"

The Badgers' season began with the high expectations of a team with an estimated market rating of 78/100. But Wisconsin disappointed on a seemingly weekly basis, closing the year rated merely above average despite a schedule lacking teeth beyond a night game in Madison with Ohio State.

LSU spent much of the campaign doing whatever it could to get Jayden Daniels the Heisman, but he's not playing in Tampa Bay. That news sent the line into single digits. However, there's hope that star receivers Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas will suit up, and the Tigers have one of the most highly-thought-of backup quarterbacks in the country. Garrett Nussmeier competed against Daniels in training camp for the starter role.

Even though they faced some grim offenses in the bottom half of the Big Ten, the Badgers' defense ranked just 38th nationally in EPA/play - a considerable drop from the unit being the program's calling card over the last few years.

Wisconsin's unlikely to slow LSU. And with tailback Braelon Allen and center Tanor Bortolini opting out and a handful of other players on offense in the transfer portal, the Badgers likely won't keep up with the Tigers, even with LSU's porous defense.

Pick: LSU (-10)

Citrus Bowl

Iowa vs. No. 21 Tennessee (-6, 35.5)

Tennessee will be without a handful of members in its secondary, but against Iowa, who cares?

The Volunteers have also seen starting quarterback Joe Milton opt out. However, Tennessee's rumored to have connected freshman Nico Iamaleava with a NIL deal for north of a million dollars, so the team won't have many objections to starting the "Nico Era" in Orlando.

It's Iowa, so Iamaleava's youth could manifest in turnovers for the Hawkeyes. But in games against elite competition this season, Iowa lost by a combined 57-0 to Michigan and Penn State. The Volunteers' defense ranks higher than any other Hawkeyes opponent this campaign, and Tennessee placed fifth nationally in EPA/play against the run - Iowa's only hope for producing yardage.

After a handful of comfortable matchups for Iowa in winning four bowl games in the last five seasons, Tennessee's speed and athleticism will hit differently. Plus, the Hawkeyes' offense - dead last in most metrics nationally - has never been worse.

Pick: Tennessee (-6)

Fiesta Bowl

No. 23 Liberty vs. No. 8 Oregon (-16.5, 67.5)

Liberty's undefeated record got them into the Fiesta Bowl, but the Flames aren't on the same level as Oregon, and the point spread reflects that. An opening line of -14 might have been a conservative approach with uncertainty about whether Bo Nix would play. All signs point to the Heisman finalist being in, so the line shot up to as high as +18 before money came back on Liberty. Full disclosure - I was one of those willing to back the Flames at a number over my projection.

Liberty's best opponent this season was either New Mexico State or Jacksonville State. The Flames handled both comfortably and played just one game all campaign in which they didn't win by double digits, so what else could one ask of them?

Oregon's offensive EPA/play ranked second nationally, but Liberty was right behind them in third. The Ducks' defense is the difference in why this line is over two touchdowns, but - as noted ahead of the Pac-12 championship - Oregon often faced teams who recently had their season virtually ended by Washington. Since defense can be a measurement of effort, and we know Liberty's focused on a rare showcase, look for the Flames to linger long enough to stay inside two scores of Oregon in a high-scoring contest.

Pick: Liberty (wait/shop for +17, bet +16 if it doesn't come back)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.