College Football Playoff: Best bets for the Rose Bowl

Ohhhh right. There's still a matter of crowning a national champion. After 39 bowl games to bet on, it can be easy to forget that the College Football Playoff semifinals are still to be played - a true "saving the best for last" situation. First up, the Granddaddy of 'em all.

In school sports, it often seems like this year's team isn't as good as teams of years past. After all, the previous stars have gone on to bigger and better things, the head coach looks older than you remember, and we still haven't seen the extent of what the new guys can do. It's easy to look at Alabama and Michigan and wonder where the Bryce Youngs and Aidan Hutchinsons have gone while considering how old we've all gotten watching Nick Saban and Jim Harbaugh (in his ninth season at Michigan!). But that's the key to the handicap for the Rose Bowl - the first of two CFP semis.

Rose Bowl

No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan (-1.5, 44.5)

While Alabama and Michigan will eventually have current players make an impact in the NFL, the respective coaching staffs are where we should look before betting on a game that hasn't seen the line shift more than a minor toggle between -1.5 and -2. That shouldn't be a surprise, given how these teams were rated to end the season.

Two big reactions happened when this matchup was announced. One was caught on camera when many Wolverines gasped at the initial sight of Alabama's logo instead of Florida State's. The other instinct was from bettors to take the points or a plus-money price on the Crimson Tide to win outright. Both have had a month to create a second impression.

The metrics favor Michigan when comparing the two programs in standard down success rate (SDSR) and EPA/play:

This type of metric mismatch usually suggests a larger point spread on a neutral field. By comparison, Penn State had a much better defensive rating than Alabama this season and an almost identical offensive rating, and Michigan closed -4.5 on the road at Happy Valley in Week 11.

Why is Alabama getting considerably more credit? In short - probably because of Saban. The Crimson Tide are getting credit for closing the campaign strong. But much of that came from beating Georgia, a matchup against former Saban assistant Kirby Smart, and the lone trouble spot for the Bulldogs in the last three seasons.

Maybe Alabama is getting credit because the Wolverines played a ridiculously easy schedule for the first two months of the season, and things haven't always been pretty for the program. But Michigan closed with wins over the Big Ten's best four teams. Analysts will talk about Jalen Milroe's dual-threat element being something the Wolverines haven't dealt with this year, but Jayden Daniels took apart the Tide's defense and even Auburn's Payton Thorne had success on the ground in a game Bama should have lost. With a month to prepare and get healthy, J.J. McCarthy can use his legs too.

Alabama's worst EPA metrics come in the categories of rush offense and rush defense, which suggests that the team isn't as dominant in the trenches as it used to be. Admittedly, Michigan has come up short in the CFP semifinals the last two seasons with bigger names on the offensive and defensive lines, and Alabama will be more of a challenge than the Wolverines thought they might have gotten against Florida State. Still, Michigan will take another step forward to winning its first national championship since the 1997 season.

Pick: Michigan moneyline (-125)

Anytime touchdowns

Roman Wilson (+190)

The Alabama defensive backs are strongest on the outside with Kool-Aid McKinstry and Terrion Arnold, but that sets up nicely for the Wolverines' leading wide receiver, Roman Wilson. He's comfortable running routes in the slot, having scored 11 times this season.

Amari Niblack (+390)

Speaking of high-scorers, Amari Niblack only has 19 catches on the campaign, but four have been touchdowns. That's nothing new for the Tide, who have a history of turning to tight ends at the goal line in the postseason. Jahleel Billingsley, Cameron Latu, and Irv Smith all scored in bowl games after being moderately used during the season.

J.J. McCarthy (+420)

If we suspect run success from the Wolverines, calling a bootleg near the goal line with McCarthy might be a good idea. He's also likely to see more designed runs between the tackles than usual. The option for a quarterback sneak to score also exists.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.