College Football Playoff: Best bets for the Sugar Bowl

We've already dug into the Rose Bowl, a matchup that - from a point spread perspective - is somehow supposed to be tighter than New Year's Day's nightcap. While not unfamiliar with the championship stage, Texas and Washington feel like the two newbies compared to Alabama and Michigan. But make no mistake, whether it's pointing out the possibility the Longhorns and Huskies might have been primed for a big season last August or seeing them do work this campaign, both can win back-to-back Monday games in January.

Sugar Bowl

No. 3 Texas vs. No. 2 Washington (+4, 63.5)

The line for the Sugar Bowl opened higher than our projection, so I bet it at +4.5. Nothing in the last month of the season changed my perspective, and we've seen signs that the Huskies could take enough money to see the line drop to where we might be right in thinking a field goal is the difference between these two.

It's an offense-versus-defense battle, which your old man will tell you is to the favor of the Longhorns since "defense wins championships, son." However, football has shifted in the last decade or so. Give me the quarterback with a connection to deadly weapons who can do damage deep down the field. By now, you know Heisman runner-up Michael Penix's resume. Tailback Dillon Johnson's emergence has made for a deadly second element - one that Texas' run defense can slow as we look at how the metrics compare:

The Longhorns had the shorter shot to make it to the College Football Playoff. Only Georgia, Michigan, LSU, Alabama, Ohio State, and Penn State entered the season with a higher estimated market rating (EMR). With a win at Alabama and a run to the Big 12 championship, it's unsurprising that Texas' rating has remained strong.

Washington didn't win games by as many points as the betting market would've liked, but all that did was create value to back it against Oregon. The Huskies are battle-tested, spending much of the back half of the season getting the best shot from conference foes, still believing they had a chance to go to Las Vegas. Now Washington is healthy, with Penix's target trio of Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, and Jalen McMillan ready to go. A deep passing game appears to be the best way to beat Texas' defense.

The Longhorns won't go down without a fight. In fact, we won't bet against them going down at all per se. It's just that Washington's been underestimated all campaign. The EMR that made them a 9-point underdog to Oregon was the same 74/100 rating it had before the season. Beating the Ducks on the field gave the Huskies a modest boost, maybe into the high 70s, but I'm willing to believe Kalen DeBoer has at least a team that's the equal of Steve Sarkisian's Longhorns, making this line too high.

Pick: Washington (+4)

Anytime touchdowns

Adonai Mitchell (-106)

If it's a big game, it's Mitchell all day. During an injury-plagued stint at Georgia, Mitchell scored in each of the Bulldogs' four CFP contests. With more looks for Mitchell this season, that trend has transferred with him to Austin, where he has 10 touchdowns.

Jaydon Blue (+210)

It's been a committee approach in the Longhorns' tailback room since Jonathon Brooks was lost for the campaign. Keilan Robinson got a carry on the first drive in the Big 12 title game but did little else until he scored two touchdowns late. Freshman CJ Baxter had the most carries, but he's priced as high as -190 to score. That leaves sophomore Blue, who's recorded 10 carries in each of the last two games and has a better payout for what seems closer to anyone's guess on who gets the goal line looks.

Ja'Lynn Polk (+148)

Before missing the end of the regular season, Polk scored eight touchdowns in six of the 10 games he played. Odunze is more likely to score - and is priced that way - but there's a better than 50-50 chance that Polk finds the end zone, too.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.