CFB betting preview: Key matchups, nuggets, insights for Week 1
The most anticipated college football season in modern history has arrived. The campaign technically kicked off last Saturday with Week 0, but a loaded Week 1 slate of ranked matchups and nonconference showdowns commences Saturday.
We'll have big-game previews and betting nuggets every week until the new-look, 12-team playoff is determined.
Big game previews
No. 14 Clemson vs. No. 1 Georgia (-13.5, 48.5), Saturday 12 p.m. ET
Clemson was a three-point favorite against Georgia in their neutral-site season opener in 2021, the last matchup between the programs. Three years later, Georgia is a 13.5-point favorite at a neutral site, signaling that the teams have gone in opposite directions.
Clemson's 30-10 record over the last three seasons is impressive on the surface, but it's a fall from grace considering the Tigers went 39-3 with one national title the three seasons prior. Although they should improve on their disappointing 9-4 campaign in 2023, they just aren't the perennial championship contenders they once were.
Georgia is 42-2 over the last three seasons, including back-to-back national titles. The Bulldogs are once again the title favorites after reloading with premier defensive talent and returning Heisman contender Carson Beck, the early favorite to go first overall in the upcoming NFL draft.
Maybe Clemson can win a weakened ACC - it leapfrogged Florida State as the favorite following the Seminoles' opening-weekend loss to unranked Georgia Tech - but it can't compete with the SEC elites.
No. 8 Penn State @ West Virginia (+8, O/U 51.5), 12 p.m. ET
Between the expanded playoff, a loaded roster, and a manageable schedule, this is Penn State's best chance at winning a national title. The Nittany Lions' ceiling depends on quarterback Drew Allar, who entered State College as a lauded prospect but was inconsistent in his first season.
West Virginia isn't much of a threat; Penn State dismantled the Mountaineers in last year's opener. With a 6.5 win total, West Virginia's expected to regress after a nine-win season. Even at home, the Mountaineers can't compete with Penn State's physicality in the trenches.
No. 19 Miami @ Florida (+2.5, O/U 54), Saturday 3:30 p.m. ET
Miami enters the 2024 season with lofty expectations. Even though the Hurricanes have won 10 games just once since 2004, oddsmakers assigned them a 45% chance of reaching double-digit wins.
This is the Hurricanes' best roster in years, featuring a promising defense and reliable weapons. And they finally have a quarterback fans are excited about in Cam Ward. Coupled with an absurdly easy schedule, Miami's primed for a playoff-caliber season that opens at The Swamp in a cross-state rivalry.
Florida hasn't finished above .500 since 2020, a sharp decline from the glory days of Gators football. This year shouldn't buck the trend, and head coach Billy Napier's job is already in jeopardy. They're only a slight Week 1 underdog because of home-field advantage, but plenty of Miami fans will make the trip to Gainesville. If Miami's going to live up to expectations, it'll start with a Week 1 nonconference road win.
No. 7 Notre Dame @ No. 20 Texas A&M (-3, O/U 46.5), Saturday 7:30 p.m. ET
After consecutive eight-plus-win seasons at Duke, head coach Mike Elko and quarterback Riley Leonard left Durham for greener pastures. Now they'll face off in a nonconference matchup to open the season.
Elko is tasked with returning Texas A&M to glory - a much tougher assignment than making Duke relevant. Meanwhile, Leonard takes over Notre Dame's offense with high expectations against elevated competition.
A 3-point spread in favor of the home team tells us oddsmakers rate these playoff-hopeful groups evenly. With 12 teams qualifying, one opening-week loss won't disqualify either squad.
No. 23 USC vs. No. 13 LSU (-4, O/U 64), Sunday 7:30 p.m. ET
USC has a loaded nonconference schedule in its first year in the Big Ten. Before the Trojans get a taste of a Big Ten opponent, they travel to Las Vegas for a neutral-site showdown with LSU.
Lincoln Riley has a strong track record of developing quarterbacks, but the inexperienced Miller Moss simply has massive shoes to fill following Caleb Williams' departure.
Although Brian Kelly is 20-7 in two seasons at LSU, the new playoff format gives the Tigers a better chance to compete for a national title. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier sat behind Heisman winner Jayden Daniels last season.
A year ago, this would have been an all-time quarterback matchup between the eventual top two picks in the NFL draft. Now it's a test for their replacements to prove their worth.
Week 1 Nuggets
- No. 2 Ohio State opened as a 50.5-point favorite over Akron. That's the Buckeyes' largest point spread over an opponent since they were a 52-point favorite against Rutgers in 2019 (they didn't cover in a 56-21 win) and their biggest spread over a nonconference opponent since they were 51-point favorites over Florida A&M in 2013 (OSU won 76-0). As of Wednesday, however, that line fell to 48.5.
- Underdogs of 50 or more points are 44-29-1 against the spread since 2003.
- Iowa's total in its season opener against Illinois State is 41, the highest since Week 3 of last season. The under is 29-12 in Iowa's last three seasons and 11-6 when listed at 40 or more. However, Iowa has a new offensive coordinator, and quarterback Cade McNamara has returned from an ACL injury.
- Notre Dame is 8-2-1 against the spread versus ranked teams and 6-3 against the spread on the road under head coach Marcus Freeman.
- The last time Clemson closed as a 13-point underdog or larger was Week 4 of 2012.
- Bettors love Georgia in its opener. The Bulldogs' spread has received the most bets and the second-highest handle (money wagered) for Week 1.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.