Playoff chances plummet for Notre Dame, Michigan after brutal Week 2 losses

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Huge favorites are never immune to upsets on any given Saturday. No. 8 Penn State survived a scare from Bowling Green last week, winning by seven as 35.5-point favorites. No. 7 Oregon defeated Boise State by three as 17.5-point favorites.

However, No. 5 Notre Dame wasn't as lucky, losing to Northern Illinois as a 28.5-point favorite in the most embarrassing loss of the weekend.

The Fighting Irish succumbed to the ultimate letdown spot after defeating a ranked Texas A&M squad on the road in Week 1. Although the loss isn't disqualifying with the expanded 12-team playoff, there's added pressure for Notre Dame to win out to fulfill its national title aspirations.

Once considered a virtual lock to qualify for the CFP, the Fighting Irish's odds dropped from -300 and a 75% implied probability for an at-large bid last week to +360 and a 25% chance. They can't automatically qualify with a conference championship as an independent school.

Notre Dame also went from +1600 (6% implied probability) to win the national title last week to +10000 (1%). But did oddsmakers overreact?

The Fighting Irish only have two ranked opponents remaining on their schedule: a tough Louisville team on Sept. 28 and USC on the road to close the season. Notre Dame would earn a trip to the playoff if it runs the table and finishes 11-1. The Fighting Irish deserve a greater than 25% chance to make the playoff given they'll be a favorite in at least nine of their remaining 10 games.

Granted, Notre Dame must perform better to even be in the conversation. The Fighting Irish struggled to move the ball against Northern Illinois, with transfer quarterback Riley Leonard throwing two interceptions. And head coach Marcus Freeman has to ensure his team doesn't lay any more eggs against inferior competition. But there's still reason for optimism in South Bend, Indiana, with 10 games to go.

No. 10 Michigan's loss wasn't an upset, but it's how the Wolverines lost to No. 3 Texas.

The Wolverines didn't just lose as 6.5-point home underdogs to a legitimate championship-contending group, they got pummeled by the Longhorns 31-12.

The honeymoon period is now over for the defending national champs. Michigan fans dispersed from the Big House before the fourth quarter in the Wolverines' first regular-season loss since Oct. 30, 2021, and their first home defeat with fans in attendance since 2019.

This is Michigan's new reality. The Wolverines no longer rule college football without Jim Harbaugh on the throne. To be fair, this was expected. They weren't the favorites to win the Big Ten this season with uncertainty surrounding their offense.

That uncertainty is gone. It's certain that Michigan's offense, specifically its quarterback play, is atrocious. Davis Warren's incompetence as a passer is more evident every time he drops back to throw. It's hard to imagine Alex Orji, whom Warren beat out for the starting job, would be much better.

Texas has a strong defense, but Michigan's offense didn't exactly thrive against Fresno State in Week 1. The Wolverines have many opportunities to prove they belong in the playoff picture, but it's hard to overcome egregious quarterback play. Plus, their schedule features USC, Oregon, and Ohio State. They'll be eliminated from the playoff if they lose two of those games.

That's why Michigan jumped from -120 to make the playoff before the season to +600 after its loss to Texas, giving the team a 14% chance of qualifying. The Wolverines also moved from +850 to +1200 to win the Big Ten. It's quickly become a rebuilding season for Michigan.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.