CFB Week 5 betting preview: Key matchups, nuggets, and insights

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

Conference showdowns take center stage for the rest of the season, and Week 5 has some incredible meetings in store. Let's dive into them and provide betting nuggets and insights.

No. 20 Oklahoma State @ No. 23 Kansas State (-4.5, O/U 55.5)

Oklahoma State failed its first Big 12 test in a narrow loss to Utah. Now, it has another matchup against a conference contender on the road. Kansas State is battle-tested through three weeks but suffered a brutal 38-9 loss to BYU last weekend. The Wildcats' chances of winning the Big 12 and qualifying for the College Football Playoff will take a major hit with another loss to Oklahoma State.

Kansas State should have a fiery response after its embarrassing loss, which could pose a problem for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys expected to rely on their running game entering the season, but they haven't found much success on the ground. They ran for 48 yards last week, while Utah rushed for 249 yards. Kansas State will cover if it can establish the run and limit Oklahoma State's rushing attack.

No. 15 Louisville @ No. 16 Notre Dame (-5.5, O/U 45.5)

Notre Dame has looked like a national title contender at times, and other times it doesn't even appear to be a top-50 team, like when it lost outright to Northern Illinois as a 28.5-point favorite or struggled to outlast Miami (Ohio) in the first half.

But it also has a win over Texas A&M and a 66-7 drumming against Purdue. Quarterback Riley Leonard is at the heart of Notre Dame's inconsistency. The Duke transfer hasn't brought his magic from Durham to South Bend. He's a limited passer who often makes poor decisions. That ultimately led to an inexcusable loss for Notre Dame, which must win out to ensure it has a chance at the postseason.

Louisville is Notre Dame's last challenging test until it closes out the season at USC. The Cardinals have the talent to contend in the ACC, but it hasn't played any decent competition through three games.

No. 2 Georgia @ No. 4 Alabama (+2, O/U 48.5)

Buckle up, college football fans. This has the chance to be the game of the season between two of the sport's marquee programs in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

Georgia is out for revenge after Alabama's victory over the Bulldogs in the SEC title game knocked Georgia out of the College Football Playoff and prevented it from competing for a third straight national championship.

Alabama hasn't missed a beat in Kalen DeBoer's first season since replacing Nick Saban. The Crimson Tide haven't played any worthy competition but have dominated their opponents, including Wisconsin in Madison.

Jalen Milroe's inconsistency as a passer is a concern. His running ability poses problems for opposing defenses, but he's not a natural thrower.

After dominating a good Clemson squad in Week 1, Georgia looked beatable in its last matchup, a 13-12 win over Kentucky. Quarterback Carson Beck struggled to move the ball, but the Bulldogs had two weeks to make corrections after last week's bye. They avoided a potentially disastrous early season upset but lost their place as the nation's No. 1 ranked team.

Georgia has the second-best odds to win the national championship, while Alabama has the fourth-best. Ohio State and Texas have the best and third-best odds, respectively.

With the new 12-team playoff system, this game won't disqualify the loser from competing in the College Football Playoff. However, it'll likely impact who's crowned the SEC champion in December. Unsurprisingly, the top-five matchup is the most-bet game of the weekend.

No. 19 Illinois @ No. 9 Penn State (-19, O/U 47.5)

Illinois avoided the fraud label when it beat a talented Nebraska unit Friday night. But playing at Nebraska isn't the same as playing at Happy Valley against a top-10 team under the lights.

Penn State has won 14 straight games against Big Ten opponents excluding Ohio State and Michigan. The Nittany Lions have mostly looked like a playoff team. While Illinois is its first true test, quarterback Drew Allar has made strides in his second year and has reliable weapons around him. Plus, Penn State's defense has smothered opponents.

Penn State is one of three schools ranked in the top nine in total offense and defense. It's rare to see a spread as large as 19 between two top-20 teams, but that's the difference between the Big Ten's top tier and its middle one.

Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer is off to an impressive start, totaling 862 passing yards, 10 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Illinois can compete if he takes care of the ball against the Nittany Lions' daunting defense.

Week 5 betting nuggets

• Texas is an absurd 39-point home favorite against fellow SEC opponent Mississippi State, the biggest spread of the slate. The Bulldogs are 1-3 and the worst SEC team playing against the top-ranked team in the country. Regardless, it's rare to see a spread that large between conference opponents.
• South Alabama @ LSU has the largest total on Saturday at 65.5.
• Air Force @ Wyoming has the lowest total at 34.5.
• Miami (-19.5) against Virginia Tech is the most-bet spread of the slate with 98% of bets and 99% of money wagered on Miami to cover.
• UTSA @ East Carolina over 56.5 has attracted 99% of the money, the most lopsided total of the slate.
• Bettors are split on Alabama-Georgia, with 51% of the money wagered on the spread on Georgia to cover -2, but 73% of moneyline bets are on Alabama +110.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.