CFB Week 7 betting preview: Can the Buckeyes win and cover in Oregon?

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

There were some wild results in Week 6. Four top-11 teams lost to unranked opponents on the same day for the first time since 2007. But, with the new 12-team College Football Playoff, one loss doesn't mean it's over.

Let's dive into the big matchups and betting nuggets for Week 7's incredible slate.

No. 1 Texas vs. No. 18 Oklahoma (+14.5, O/U 49.5)

The case for Texas

Texas is answering every test in a dominant fashion and thumped Michigan in Ann Arbor.

With the seventh-best scoring offense, Texas is averaging 45 points per game and didn't miss a beat after Arch Manning replaced the injured Quinn Ewers, who will resume his role as starter against Oklahoma. The Heisman candidate looked like the nation's most impressive quarterback before his injury sidelined him, throwing for over 500 yards and six touchdowns in Texas' first two games.

Oklahoma, meanwhile, struggled to score against Tennessee's elite defense in its lone loss. That doesn't bode well for its chances against Texas, whose defense allows the nation's third-fewest yards per game (228) and second-fewest passing yards (121).

The case for Oklahoma

Oklahoma's early-season offensive struggles came with Jackson Arnold at quarterback. The Sooners benched Arnold in favor of Michael Hawkins in their loss to Tennessee, and Hawkins started the following week in a win over Auburn.

It's unlikely Oklahoma returns to Arnold coming off a bye, meaning the true freshman should earn the start in the Red River Rivalry. The Sooners typically rely on an explosive offense and suspect defense, but this year is different. Their top-20 scoring defense carried them to a 4-1 start.

Notes/Lean

Hawkins is an upgrade over Arnold, but playing a rival and the No. 1 team in the country in his second career start is a tall task for a true freshman. While a two-touchdown spread might seem like a lot at a neutral site, Texas has the firepower to run up the score.

Oklahoma has won five of the last six matchups in this annual rivalry. The last time Texas was a double-digit favorite over Oklahoma was 2005, when the Longhorns defeated the Sooners 45-12.

No. 2 Ohio State @ No. 3 Oregon (+3, O/U 53.5)

The case for Ohio State

Ohio State laying a field goal on the road says everything about how oddsmakers view these teams. The Buckeyes have the most talented roster in the country and have shown that through five games, overpowering weak non-conference opponents and decimating Big Ten foes Michigan State and Iowa.

They also have the country's best scoring defense (allowing 6.8 points per game) and fourth-best scoring offense (46 points per game).

But they haven't faced an opponent as talented as Oregon.

Oregon's balanced offensive attack was effective last year. However, its rushing attack is now struggling with a weaker offensive line, averaging 164 rushing yards per game compared to 184 last season. While quarterback Dillon Gabriel has exceptional arm talent, he threw three picks in the last two games.

The case for Oregon

Oregon suffered a scare against Boise State but has otherwise cruised to its 5-0 mark. That being said, the only case for the Ducks is that they're playing at home in front of a raucous atmosphere.

After Oregon allowed 221 rushing yards against Boise State, Ohio State should be able to successfully run the ball behind a physical offensive line. No defense in the country can stop the Buckeyes' offense, so the Ducks' only chance is to try to keep pace offensively.

Notes/Lean

Oregon has never been a home underdog in the Dan Lanning era and has only been an underdog three times since he arrived. It has never covered a spread as an underdog.

Expect Ohio State to control the clock with an efficient running game, take the crowd out of the game, and win the turnover battle en route to a comfortable win. Unsurprisingly, this is the most bet game of the weekend, and 85% of the money is wagered on Ohio State to cover.

No. 9 Ole Miss @ No. 13 LSU (+3.5, 63.5)

The case for Ole Miss

Ole Miss bounced back from an upset loss to Kentucky with a road win over South Carolina last weekend.

The Rebels have the SEC's best offense, which is led by quarterback Jaxson Dart. They're first in total yards per game (576), passing yards per game (372), and total points (264). Meanwhile, LSU has the SEC's worst passing defense (allowing 236 passing yards per game) and allows the fourth-most points (21 per game). Ole Miss will score at will.

The case for LSU

Despite its porous defense, LSU boasts a passing offense (337 yards per game) that is comparable to Ole Miss. But, aside from narrowly escaping South Carolina, the Tigers have no impressive wins.

It's hard to make a case for LSU, which ranks second to last in rushing yards per game in the SEC (131). Ole Miss has the conference's best run defense, allowing just 63 rushing yards per game. All the pressure will be on LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier to create explosive plays in the air.

Notes/Lean

Ole Miss's high-powered offense leads to high totals, but the Rebels rarely surpass the total. Their unders are 5-1, while LSU unders are 3-2. When two elite passing offenses clash, a 63.5 total - the third highest of Saturday's slate - is reasonable.

If LSU can't rely on its rushing attack and can't stop Ole Miss' offense, it's hard to see an upset being pulled off at home.

No. 4 Penn State @ USC (+5.5, 50.5)

The case for Penn State

USC's offense took a clear and predictable step back when Miller Moss replaced Caleb Williams under center. The Trojans' offense ranks toward the middle of the pack in the Big Ten, and Moss threw four picks in the last three games, two of which were losses to Michigan and Minnesota.

Penn State's defense is allowing the second-fewest points (57 per game) and yards (233 per game) in the Big Ten. The Nittany Lions rely on an explosive running game (217 rushing yards per game), while USC has the Big Ten's second-worst rushing defense, allowing 158 rushing yards per contest.

The case for USC

There are still concerns about quarterback Drew Allar in big games. He was iffy against Illinois - 135 yards on 21 attempts and no touchdowns - and was horrible in Penn State's two losses last season. USC has a solid pass defense, so the Trojans must force the Nittany Lions to throw consistently.

Penn State had to bus to Harrisburg because it couldn't fly out of State College before flying across the country to a different time zone. USC is also coming off an upset loss to Minnesota. It's a prime bounce-back spot for the Trojans.

Notes/Lean

Penn State has the best ATS record (9-2) on the road among power conference teams since 2022. It's 9-0 ATS as a road favorite during that span. USC, meanwhile, is 3-5 ATS after a loss under Lincoln Riley.

James Franklin has been one of the nation's best ATS coaches during his Penn State tenure, posting a 73-56-3 (55%) ATS record.

However, between Penn State's travel, USC's disappointing loss last week, and Allar shrinking in big games, expect the Trojans to keep it close at home and potentially pull off an upset.

Week 7 betting nuggets

• Georgia is a 34-point home favorite over SEC foe Mississippi State, the largest spread of the slate.
• UNLV (-19) @ Utah State has a 65.5 total on Friday night, the highest of the weekend. Utah State has had three games with a total of at least 60; one has gone over the total.
• Minnesota (-5) @ UCLA has a total of 40, the lowest of the weekend. UCLA unders are 4-1.
• UAB @ Army (-25.5) is the most lopsided spread of the weekend with 79% of bets and 98% of the money on Army to cover. Army is 5-0 ATS.
• Oregon State @ Nevada is the most lopsided total of the slate with 99% of the money on over 48.5 points.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.