CFB Week 8 betting preview and picks: Can Texas stay perfect vs. Georgia?

Odds and data via theScore Bet and ESPN Bet

It's been a wild few weeks in college football as massive upsets have shifted the College Football Playoff landscape. This week, we're focusing on marquee matchups with enormous playoff implications, presenting a case for each side, trends, and a pick.

Nebraska @ No. 16 Indiana (-6.5, 50.5)

Indiana is off to its best start since 1967 in head coach Curt Cignetti’s first season. Nebraska would be undefeated without an overtime loss to Illinois. Both teams have aspirations to sneak into the Playoff as a long shot.

Case for Nebraska

• Nebraska has a tenacious defense that allows the second-fewest points (11) and third-fewest rushing yards (84) per game in the Big Ten.
• The Cornhuskers match up well against a potent Indiana offense that leads the conference in points (47.5) and yards (515) per game.
• However, those numbers are slightly flawed due to Indiana's easy schedule. The Hoosiers' Big Ten wins are against Purdue, Maryland, and Northwestern - who have one conference win combined.

Case for Indiana

• Although it hasn't played any decent competition, Indiana has dominated every opponent and leads the conference in point differential (32.7 per game).
• Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke completes 74% of his passes and rarely turns the ball over.
• Nebraska lost to Illinois at home and only scored 14 points in its last win over Rutgers.

Trends/Insights

• Indiana is 5-1 ATS, and Nebraska is 4-1-1 ATS.
• Indiana head coach Curt Cignetti is 10-6 as a home favorite over the last three seasons (his previous two seasons were at James Madison).
• Nebraska has received 56% of the bets and 52% of the handle.

Best bet - Nebraska +6.5

Indiana has its first non-elementary test. Cignetti is a phenomenal coach and has revived the Hoosiers in his first season, but they aren't as good as their record indicates. Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola is susceptible to turnovers as a true freshman, but the Cornhuskers' defensive physicality should stymie Indiana's offense.

No. 7 Alabama @ No. 11 Tennessee (+3, O/U 56.5)

Alabama has dominated this matchup over the last two decades, but the Crimson Tide have looked pedestrian in recent weeks with a mediocre defense. This should be a high-scoring affair between two electric offenses with huge playoff implications.

Case for Tennessee

• After an incredible win over Georgia, Alabama has looked vulnerable the last two weeks in an upset loss to Vanderbilt and a near loss to South Carolina.
• The Crimson Tide have surrendered 92 points in their last five halves.
• Tennessee averages 42 points per game, the SEC's second-highest mark.
• Alabama allows too many explosive plays with an inexperienced defense. The Tide allows the conference's fourth-most yards (342) and third-most rushing yards (129) per game. Tennessee has the SEC's top rushing attack, collecting 246 yards per game.

Case for Alabama

• Alabama's offense can keep pace with anyone, scoring 41.7 points per game, the SEC's third-most. The Tide have a host of playmakers Jalen Milroe relies on. Milroe can't turn the ball over for Alabama to win on the road. He has three interceptions in the last two games, but Tennessee's defense doesn't force many turnovers.
• Tennessee's defense allows the SEC's fourth-fewest passing yards (170) and second-fewest rushing yards (79) per game.
• However, Tennessee's offense has struggled the last two weeks after a strong start. The Volunteers lost to Arkansas two weeks ago and narrowly defeated Florida last week. That's due to poor quarterback play from Nico Iamaleava, an ultra-talented freshman who often makes ill-advised decisions. He's completed less than 60% of his passes in the last two weeks and has one interception and no touchdowns.

Trends/Insights

• Alabama has won 16 of its last 17 matchups against Tennessee. The Vols' only win in that span was a 52-49 home win in 2022.
• Since Josh Heupel was hired, Tennesse is 1-4 ATS as a home underdog. Its only cover was in its 2022 win over Alabama.
• Kalen DeBoer was 3-7 ATS as a road favorite at Washington.
• Bettors are fading Alabama after two rough weeks, with 73% of the best and 82% of the money on Tennessee to cover.

Best bet - Alabama -3

After Alabama and Tennessee suffered brutal upset losses in Week 6, many expected each group to dominate the following week. That wasn't the case, as they escaped upsets to inferior opponents in Week 7. Perhaps last week was a lookahead spot with a massive matchup pending. The contest's loser will have two losses on their resume and an uphill battle to qualify for the College Football Playoff.

Alabama's defense could struggle against a running game as explosive as Tennessee's. However, whichever quarterback can make more plays in the fourth quarter will decide the game. Milroe can be erratic, but he's proven himself in big moments and is more trustworthy than Tennessee's freshman signal-caller.

No. 24 Michigan @ No. 22 Illinois (+3.5, 43.5)

Michigan is certainly not the team it was last year, but it still can contend in the Big Ten. Illinois is off to an unexpectedly great start and has a chance to win its first ranked-versus-ranked game at home since 1991 against the defending national champs.

Case for Michigan

• Michigan is on its third quarterback. Jack Tuttle replaced Alex Orji (Orji replaced Davis Warren) in the Wolverines' loss to Washington. Tuttle is a better thrower than Warren and Orji, but that's not saying much.
• The Wolverines depend on a rushing attack fueled by Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards. Illinois allows the Big Ten's fourth-most rushing yards per game (150).
• Michigan's strength is stopping the run, so Illinois must air it out consistently.

Case for Illinois

• Although Michigan's undergoing a rebuilding year, Sherrone Moore's first season isn't going well.
• Luke Altmyer has been impressive for Illinois, especially as a decision-maker. He rarely turns the ball over, throwing a conference-leading 14 touchdowns and only one interception.
• Illinois has had some thrilling finishes, with two of its last three games going into overtime.

Trends/Insights

• Illinois is 4-1-1 ATS, while Michigan is 1-5 ATS.
• Illinois is 15-8 ATS as an underdog under Bret Bielema.
• Less than 50% of the bets are on Michigan, but 74% of the handle (money wagered) is on the Wolverines.

Best bet - Michigan -3.5

Illinois held Penn State's offense in check, then allowed 49 points to Purdue. It's hard to know which Illinois group will show up every week. If Michigan loses again, it's effectively eliminated from the playoff. The Wolverines' defense and run game will propel them to victory after a bye week.

No. 5 Georgia @ No. 1 Texas (-5, O/U 56.5)

This has the potential to be the game of the year. Texas, the SEC newcomers, has cruised to a 6-0 start but has its toughest test against a group that's dominated the conference in recent seasons.

Case for Georgia

• It's not that there's no case for Georgia, but Texas is better at virtually every position group. The Bulldogs' defense ranks toward the middle of the conference, a complete departure from its standing as the SEC's best defense the last three seasons.
• The Bulldogs average the SEC's fourth-fewest rushing yards, and quarterback Carson Beck hasn't lived up to preseason expectations as a Heisman favorite. He's thrown multiple interceptions in two of the last three games.

Case for Texas

• Texas leads the conference in points per game (43) and is second in yards per contest (495). The team has NFL-level talent on both sides of the ball.
• Quinn Ewers wasn't perfect in his first game returning from injury, but Texas still decimated Oklahoma 34-3, just as it's done against every other opponent on its schedule.
• Georgia's lone loss was to Alabama. It trailed 21-0 in the first quarter before mounting a thrilling comeback that ultimately fell short. What's more concerning is the Bulldogs struggled against Kentucky and barely beat an abysmal Mississippi State squad last weekend.

Trends/Insights

• Kirby Smart is 7-4 ATS as an underdog at Georgia.
• Since 2020, Georgia has only been an underdog twice. It went 1-1 ATS.
• The last time Georgia lost a game to a school other than Alabama was Nov. 7, 2020 (Florida). It's 51-3 since then, with all three losses coming to the Crimson Tide.
• Texas is 14-7-1 ATS as a home favorite under Steve Sarkisian.
• Texas has attracted 63% of the bets and 64% of the handle.

Best bet - Texas -5

Georgia's chances of making the playoff would take a huge hit with a loss on Saturday. Granted, the Bulldogs' losses would have come against top-10 teams. Georgia's offense won't keep pace without a reliable running game and with a struggling Beck.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.