CFB Week 11 betting preview: Alabama, LSU meet in must-win matchup

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The first College Football Playoff reveal didn't produce many shocking results, but there's still a month left in the regular season. We broke down the selection committee's rankings here.

Week 11 features two consequential matchups between marquee programs. Let's analyze our three best games of the weekend.

No. 3 Georgia @ No. 16 Ole Miss (+2.5, O/U 54.5)

Georgia sits atop the SEC standings with two top-20 matchups approaching, starting with Ole Miss this Saturday. For the Rebels, a win would move them back into the playoff picture, but they'd be effectively eliminated from the playoff with their third loss.

Case for Georgia

• Bulldogs quarterback Carson Beck's been a mess recently, throwing eight picks in the last three games. However, Ole Miss' defense allows the fifth-most passing yards per game (234).
• Ole Miss has a strong run defense, but Georgia relies heavily on Beck's arm. The Bulldogs have the SEC's third-best passing attack and second-worst rushing attack.
• Georgia should move the ball through the air to keep pace with Ole Miss' offense.

Case for Ole Miss

• Ole Miss leads the SEC in scoring offense, total offense, and passing offense.
• Georgia's defense, which held Texas to 15 points in October, will have its hands full.
• However, before the Rebels' 63-point performance against Arkansas last weekend, they'd failed to score 30 in four straight games.

Trends/Insights

• Ole Miss is 6-3 ATS while Georgia is 2-6 ATS.
• Georgia is 20-13 ATS as a road favorite under Kirby Smart but 0-2 this season.
• Ole Miss is 4-2 ATS as a home underdog under Lane Kiffin.
• Bettors are backing Georgia: 81% of the bets and 79% of the handle is on Georgia to cover.

Best bet - Georgia -2.5

Ole Miss has the offensive firepower to outlast Georgia's defense, but Georgia's defense can consult the blueprint that Kentucky and LSU followed to limit the Rebels. If Beck can play a clean game - which is a massive "if" - I'd lean toward Georgia winning by a field goal.

No. 11 Alabama @ No. 15 LSU (+3, O/U 58.5)

This is a do-or-die matchup for both teams: The winner stays alive in the College Football Playoff race while the loser's playoff bid ends. Both teams are coming off byes.

Case for Alabama

• Alabama's defensive strength is limiting opposing pass-heavy offenses, and it's particularly good at creating turnovers. In Kalen DeBoer's first season, the Tide have forced 11 interceptions, tied for second in the SEC.
• LSU relies heavily on its passing attack. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier has dropped back to pass at least 50 times in two of the last three games. Although he has a strong arm, he's been inconsistent, throwing seven picks in his previous four starts.

Case for LSU

• LSU has one of the SEC's worst defenses, but Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe is a big reason why the Tide are 2-2 in their last four. He's an inaccurate passer and erratic decision-maker, throwing four picks in his last three games.
• The Tigers have the SEC's fourth-best total offense (460 yards per game) and second-best passing offense (337 yards per game).

Trends/Insights

• Alabama is 4-4 ATS while LSU is 3-5.
• LSU is 1-0 ATS as a home underdog and Alabama is 1-2 ATS as a road favorite.
• Four of LSU's last five games have gone under the total.
• Alabama won 11 of its last 13 contests against LSU and five of its last six road games against the Tigers.
• Alabama's spread has garnered 55% of the bets and handle.

Best bet - Alabama -3

It's hard to trust Milroe right now, but he has a good matchup against LSU's porous defense. If he plays mistake-free football, Alabama's improving defense should force Nussmeier into turnovers and limit LSU's offense.

No. 9 BYU @ Utah (+3.5, O/U 40.5)

In the initial College Football Playoff reveal, BYU was a 9-seed, signaling that it must remain undefeated and win the Big 12 to earn a bid. BYU's had an easy schedule thus far, and Utah is the next foe in its path. The Utes, meanwhile, haven't lived up to preseason expectations after another Cam Rising injury derailed their campaign.

Case for BYU

• Sure, BYU hasn't faced any challenging opponents, but it hasn't lost and will be favored in every game for the rest of the season.
• BYU has the Big 12's second-best scoring offense and third-best scoring defense.
• The Cougars are under immense pressure as they look to avoid an upset en route to a Big 12 title, but they're significantly more talented than a broken Utah squad.

Case for Utah

• Utah is coming off a bye, and the line indicates it'll be a close contest.
• That's about the only argument to make for Utah, which scored 14 or fewer points in three of the last four weeks.

Trends/Insights

• BYU is 7-1 ATS, the nation's second-best mark.
• BYU is 4-0 ATS on the road and 1-0 ATS as a road favorite.
• Utah is 1-3 ATS at home.
• This line opened at -5 and shrunk to -3.5, but bettors are all over BYU with 71% of the bets and 76% of the handle on the Cougars to cover.
• Almost 90% of the money wagered and 77% of the bets are on the over in a low total game.

Best bet - BYU -3.5

This could be a trap line, but BYU has been a cover machine, handily defeating lesser opponents all season. I can't see Utah spoiling the Cougars' perfect record.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.