CFB Week 12 betting preview: Can Indiana keep it close against Ohio State?

We already previewed Notre Dame vs. Army, but there are more high-stakes games this weekend that'll surely impact the playoff picture. Let's dive in.

No. 5 Indiana @ No. 2 Ohio State (-13.5, O/U 51.5)

Although this game is being billed as a massive one for Indiana, it's actually not - sorry to be the bearer of bad news. ESPN's playoff predictor gives Indiana a 99% chance of making the playoff if it beats Ohio State. If it loses? Well, those chances drop all the way to 95%. Whether that's fair or not is a conversation for another day. This is a good test for Indiana but unless it gets demolished, the Hoosiers are going dancing.

Case for Indiana

• Indiana is one of three remaining undefeated teams (10-0). It has the highest-scoring offense (43.9 points per game) and third-best scoring defense (13.8 points per game).
• Hoosiers quarterback Kurtis Rourke has been incredible, tossing over 2,400 yards and 21 touchdowns to four interceptions.
• However, Indiana's benefited from the easiest strength of schedule among all Big Ten and SEC teams.

Case for Ohio State

• While Indiana's offense has impressed, it hasn't faced a defense anywhere near as ferocious as Ohio State, which allows the fewest points (10.3) and yards per game (250) in the Big Ten.
• Ohio State's offense has been inconsistent, and losing center Seth McLaughlin for the season isn't ideal. However, the Buckeyes still have the Big Ten's second-highest scoring offense (37.8 points per game).
• The Hoosiers' defensive line stops opposing rushing attacks, but isn't as strong guarding weapons on the outside.
• QB Will Howard and his explosive playmakers will make life difficult for Indiana's defense.

Key trends

• Indiana is 8-2 ATS while Ohio State's 5-5.
• Ohio State is 22-14-1 ATS at home under Ryan Day.
• Indiana is off to its best start in program history but ranks outside the top 100 in strength of schedule.
• Bettors trust the Hoosiers despite their leisurely schedule: 78% of bets and 82% of handle (money wagered) are on Indiana to keep it within the spread.

Best bet - Ohio State -13.5

Indiana hasn't proved it can compete with any decent team. Despite the magical run, it's hard to back the Hoosiers against one of the nation's most talented groups. Indiana is in the playoff win or lose, so it's not a desperation spot.

No. 16 Colorado @ Kansas (+3, O/U 59.5)

Kansas' (4-6) only purpose left this season is to play spoiler to its Big 12 foes, like when it upset undefeated BYU last week. Its next opportunity is at home against Colorado, which is searching for a Big 12 championship and College Football Playoff appearance.

Case for Colorado

• Colorado's won four straight and seven of its last eight.
• The offense has averaged 39.5 points over the last four games, led by projected first-round pick Shedeur Sanders.
• The Buffaloes' once-maligned defense has been almost as impressive, limiting opponents to 22.7 points per game.

Case for Kansas

• Kansas' defense, which held BYU to 13 points, carried it to an upset over the Cougars. But the Jayhawks' rushing attack has sparked its late-season resurgence.
• The Jayhawks average 200 rushing yards per game, the Big 12's third-best mark.
• The key for Kansas is controlling the clock by effectively running the ball, ensuring Colorado's offense earns limited possessions.

Key trends

• Colorado is a perfect 7-0 ATS against Big 12 opponents.
• The Buffs are 4-1 ATS in away games.
• Kansas covered its last four games and is 3-0 ATS against ranked teams.
• Colorado's spread has slightly more bets but Kansas' spread has almost 60% of the money.
• Almost 100% of the money and slightly under 90% of bets are on the over.

Best bet - Kansas +3

The Big 12 is a lousy but chaotic conference. Kansas played spoiler last week and will assume the role again by relentlessly running the ball.

No. 14 BYU @ No. 21 Arizona State (-3, O/U 48.5)

There are massive playoff implications in this matchup between two Big 12 teams picked to finish toward the bottom of the conference in preseason polls.

Case for BYU

• BYU was 9-0 and firmly in the playoff picture before it lost to Kansas last weekend. Now it must run the table and win the Big 12 to earn a bid.
• The Cougars have the Big 12's best total defense and second-best scoring defense.
• Arizona State's mediocre passing offense will struggle against BYU. The Sun Devils average under 400 yards per game, the Big 12's 10th-best offense.

Case for Arizona State

• While BYU's defense has been lights out, its offense struggles to produce. It hasn't scored more than 24 points in its last two outings.
• Arizona State's rushing defense is one of the conference's best. The key for the Sun Devils will be to keep the game low scoring. They'll win if they can limit BYU's explosive plays while breaking free for a couple of their own.

Key trends

• Both groups have been great against the number: Arizona State is 8-2 ATS and BYU is 7-3.
• BYU is 4-0 ATS as an underdog and 3-0 as a road underdog.
• Arizona State is 5-0 ATS at home and 4-0 as a home favorite.
• Almost 70% of the bets and 74% of the handle is on Arizona State to cover as a favorite.

Best bet - BYU +3

BYU suffered a heartbreaking loss last weekend, but its season is far from over. This is a desperate spot for the Cougars, who've proved their defense can travel.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.