CFB championship week betting preview: Texas, Georgia compete for SEC title

One of the wackier college football regular seasons is officially in the books. Conference realignment and the expanded playoff created more intrigue in the final weeks. There's still much to be determined during conference championship weekend, including the top four seeds and first-round byes in the 12-team playoff. We broke down the four major conference championships below.

No. 16 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Arizona State (-2, O/U 59.5)

The stakes in the Big 12 title game are simple: The winner punches a ticket to the College Football Playoff, and the loser is out. It's been a chaotic year in the lowly Big 12, but a champion must be crowned.

Case for Iowa State

• Iowa State's two November losses almost sank the ship. However, muddled results across the Big 12 and a three-game winning streak to end the season catapulted the Cyclones into the championship contest.
• The Cyclones' defense has been dominant all season, allowing the fewest points (19.6 per game) and the fewest passing yards (156.9) in the Big 12.
• Arizona State's passing attack is subpar. Iowa State should prevent the Sun Devils from moving the ball through the air.

Case for Arizona State

• Arizona State rallied off five consecutive wins to earn a championship appearance.
• The Sun Devils don't have the passing game to defeat Iowa State, but they dominate the trenches as a run-heavy team on offense and shut down opposing run games on defense.
• They have the Big 12's fourth-best rushing attack (195 yards per contest) and allow the second-fewest rushing yards per contest (116).
• Iowa State has a proficient pass defense but can't consistently stop the run. It allows the conference's third-most rushing yards per game (173).

Key trends

• Arizona State is tied for the best ATS record in the country at 10-2.
• Iowa State is 7-5 ATS.
• Arizona State is 3-0 ATS against ranked opponents, while Iowa State is 1-0.
• The Sun Devils are 7-0 ATS as favorites.
• Iowa State is 1-4 ATS at a neutral site under Matt Campbell.
• Four of Arizona State's last five games have gone over.
• Over 80% of bets and over 90% of the handle (money wagered) is on Arizona State to cover.

Pick: Arizona State -2

The Big 12 has been so bad this season that despite being considered a power conference, the winner likely won't earn a first-round bye. However, they will earn the No. 12 seed in the College Football Playoff. Arizona State has an advantage at the line of scrimmage on both sides. It should run all over Iowa State en route to a conference championship.

No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 2 Texas (-2.5, O/U 49.5)

The winner of this contest is in the playoff and will likely be a top-two seed. The loser won't earn a first-round bye but will still be in the dance.

Case for Georgia

• Georgia avoided a massive upset and a do-or-die situation in the SEC championship when it erased a 17-point deficit and defeated Georgia Tech in an eight-overtime classic last weekend.
• We've seen the Texas-Georgia matchup before when the Bulldogs dominated the Longhorns on the road in October.
• Georgia completely naturalized Texas' offense, leading to Arch Manning briefly replacing Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers.
• The Bulldogs' defensive line had an overwhelming advantage against Texas' offensive line, as the Longhorns struggled to establish a run game.
• Georgia had seven sacks against Texas.

Case for Texas

• While Texas' offense struggled against Georgia, the Longhorns have seen the Bulldogs' game plan.
• Georgia hasn't looked like world-beaters since its bout with Texas, losing to Ole Miss and barely escaping Georgia Tech.
• Quarterback Carson Beck's inconsistency has hurt Georgia. He threw three interceptions and zero touchdowns against Texas. The Longhorns' offense must do enough to take advantage this time.

Key trends

• Georgia is an abysmal 3-9 ATS, while Texas is 7-5.
• However, the Longhorns are 3-5 ATS against SEC squads.
• Texas is 1-0 ATS at a neutral site, while Georgia is 1-1.
• The only time Georgia was an underdog this year was at Texas (four points) and won outright.
• Georgia's last three games have gone over the total, but Texas' last three have gone under.
• Kirby Smart is 2-4 straight up in the SEC championship game.
• Over 70% of the bets and handle are on Texas to cover.
• Over 70% of the bets and handle are on the over.

Pick: Georgia +2.5

Georgia's defensive line left a lasting impression the last time we saw these programs share a field. The Bulldogs' defense has advantages everywhere and is good enough to stifle Ewers and Texas' offense again.

No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 1 Oregon (-3.5, O/U 49.5)

Oregon's perfect record is on the line in the Big Ten championship game against Penn State, which jumped Ohio State in the standings and earned a trip to the conference championship after the Buckeyes' embarrassing upset loss to Michigan.

Case for Penn State

• Although Oregon's the lone undefeated team in the country, the Ducks' easy schedule doesn't make them overly daunting.
• Penn State's offense, particularly its passing game, has been rolling as quarterback Drew Allar plays clean football. He's thrown six touchdowns and no interceptions in the last four contests.
• Tyler Warren, the nation's best tight end, has been unstoppable in recent weeks. Oregon won't have an answer for him.

Case for Oregon

• Oregon has passed every test, including a one-point win over Ohio State in October.
• While the Ducks haven't had the toughest schedule, they've mostly annihilated mediocre opponents.
• Penn State lost to Ohio State, while Oregon narrowly escaped with a win.
• The Ducks have a top-five rushing and passing attack in the Big Ten.
• They've held opponents to 16.2 points per game, the conference's fourth-best mark.

Key trends

• Oregon and Penn State are both 6-6 ATS, but Oregon is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.
• Oregon is 2-0 ATS against ranked opponents, while Penn State is 0-2.
• Six of Oregon's last eight games have gone under the total.
• Penn State is 1-6 ATS in its last seven contests as underdogs.
• James Franklin's only Big Ten championship appearance came in 2016 when Penn State beat Wisconsin to win the title.
• Bettors don't believe in Penn State: 86% of bets and 90% of the handle is on Oregon to cover.

Pick: Penn State +3.5

Oregon hasn't faced a quality opponent in well over a month. It's hard to know just how good these Ducks truly are. Penn State's offense is clicking, and the spread is as low as it is for a reason, so I'm rolling with the Nittany Lions.

No. 17 Clemson vs. No. 8 SMU (-2.5, O/U 55.5)

Syracuse's upset win over Miami last Saturday kicked the Hurricanes out of the ACC championship game and College Football Playoff. It also allowed Clemson an opportunity to punch its ticket to the dance. The winner of this contest automatically heads to the playoff.

Case for Clemson

• This is a matchup of strength versus strength, as Clemson boasts the ACC's best rushing attack and SMU has the top rushing defense.
• Clemson will likely have to trust quarterback Cade Klubnik to play a turnover-free game and make plays with his arm. SMU has an average pass defense, while Clemson averages the ACC's fourth-most passing yards (275).
• While the Tigers have lost two of their last five, including a rivalry game against South Carolina last week, they've played a tough schedule, while SMU has faced cupcake opponents.

Case for SMU

• SMU has the ACC's second-best scoring offense and best scoring defense, holding opponents to fewer than 20 points per game.
• However, that's slightly skewed because SMU played a weak schedule, leading to its 11-1 record.
• The Mustangs still have the talent to compete with Clemson, which has a very suspect run defense. SMU will win if it establishes the run.

Key Trends

• SMU is 8-4 ATS.
• Clemson is 5-7 ATS but has covered just one of its last six contests.
• Four of Clemson's last five games have gone under the total.
• Clemson has only been an underdog once this season - it lost and failed to cover against Georgia in the season opener.
• SMU is 6-4 ATS as a favorite.
• Almost 80% of bets are on SMU to cover, but only 56% of the handle is on the Mustangs.

Pick: Clemson +2.5

Clemson's difficult nonconference schedule will be advantageous at a neutral site. SMU had an easy nonconference schedule and a relatively easy ACC schedule. Dabo Swinney has coached in plenty of big games and should have his squad ready.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.