College Football Playoff shakeup: Could Alabama be left out?
The most pressing question heading into the penultimate College Football Playoff rankings reveal Tuesday night was who would earn the final spot in the field between Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss, and South Carolina.
After Alabama's Iron Bowl win over Auburn on Saturday night, oddsmakers at theScore Bet and ESPN Bet listed the Crimson Tide at -115 to make the playoff. Bettors pounced, forcing the line to lengthen to -240 before Tuesday's official reveal.
Alabama's resume - which features a 3-1 record over current top-25 teams, a 6-1 mark against clubs above .500 and a top-20 strength of schedule rank - ultimately gave the Tide the nod over Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina.
But Alabama hasn't officially punched its ticket to the dance. Conference championship weekend could shuffle the rankings. Below are the current seeds and rankings. Remember, the seeding is different than the ranking because the five highest-ranked conference champions earn an automatic bid and the top four conference champs earn a top-four seed and a bye.
| Seed | Ranking | Team | Odds to win national title |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Oregon | +350 |
| 2 | 2 | Texas | +425 |
| 3 | 8 | SMU | +2500 |
| 4 | 10 | Boise State | +10000 |
| 5 | 3 | Penn State | +1100 |
| 6 | 4 | Notre Dame | +750 |
| 7 | 5 | Georgia | +500 |
| 8 | 7 | Tennessee | +1800 |
| 9 | 6 | Ohio State | +425 |
| 10 | 9 | Indiana | +4000 |
| 11 | 11 | Alabama | +1400 |
| 12 | 15 | Arizona State | +7500 |
Arizona State is in if it wins the Big 12 championship Saturday. If it loses to Iowa State, the Cyclones are in. The same principle applies to Boise State: If UNLV defeats the program in the Mountain West championship this weekend, then UNLV earns a spot.
Alabama's spot is in flux if SMU loses to Clemson in the ACC championship. Clemson would earn the automatic bid and the final at-large bid would come down to Alabama or SMU.
Odds to make the CFP
| Team | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Alabama | -390 | +270 |
| SMU | -500 | +340 |
Alabama and SMU are both in if the latter defeats Clemson on Saturday, which is why both teams are big favorites to make the playoff. But SMU is only a 2.5-point favorite over Clemson, so it's far from guaranteed.
But who would the committee favor between Alabama and SMU if Clemson wins? SMU is ranked ahead of Alabama, but would that change if SMU suffers another loss? And would the committee penalize SMU for being forced to play in its conference championship while Alabama doesn't have to play an extra game?
The Mustangs' implied probability of making the playoffs is 83%, while the Crimson Tide's is 79%. Alabama's significantly harder strength of schedule and higher-quality wins could put them ahead of a two-loss SMU squad. Still, it's hard to know exactly how the committee views a situation like this in the inaugural season of the expanded playoff.
Committee chairman Warde Manuel responded "potentially, yes" when asked on Tuesday's selection show if SMU could fall below Alabama depending on this weekend's result.
Alabama will certainly root hard for SMU to defeat Clemson on Saturday so both programs hear their name called on Sunday's selection show.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.