CFP 1st-round betting preview: Which underdogs can keep things close?

The much-anticipated 12-team College Football Playoff is here. As the top four seeds rest and await their opponent, the remaining eight teams will fight for a spot in the quarterfinals. The higher seed earned home-field advantage for the opening round, while the rest of the rounds will be played on a neutral field.

Indiana and Notre Dame kick off the playoffs Friday night, and the other three games are on Saturday. Let's get to the action.

No. 10 Indiana @ No. 7 Notre Dame (-7.5, O/U 51.5)

Notre Dame reeled off 10 straight wins to qualify for the playoff after losing to Northern Illinois in Week 2. Indiana also has only lost once but lacks impressive wins.

Case for Indiana

• Quarterback Kurtis Rourke tossed for over 2,800 yards this season and rarely turned the ball over.
• The Hoosiers have the nation's sixth-best scoring defense, allowing 14 points per game.
• They also have the second-best scoring offense, averaging 43.3 points.

Case for Notre Dame

• Indiana is near the top of the nation in numerous statistical categories, but those numbers are skewed by weak competition. It had the easiest schedule among power conference playoff teams.
• Notre Dame has the nation's third-best scoring defense, allowing 13 points per game.
• The Fighting Irish have a balanced offensive attack, and quarterback Riley Leonard has played clean football during their winning streak. They have the nation's third-best scoring offense, averaging 39.8 points.

Key trends

• Notre Dame is 9-2-1 against the spread (ATS), while Indiana is 9-3.
• The Fighting Irish are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games, most of which have been double-digit spreads.
• Notre Dame is 3-2-1 ATS at home.
• Indiana is 0-1 ATS as an away underdog but 3-1 ATS on the road.
• Indiana's last eight road games have gone over the total.
• This is the most split game on the card, as public and sharp bettors haven't reached a consensus on who to back: 50.8% of the bets and 50.5% of the handle (money wagered) is on Notre Dame to cover.
• For the total, 68% of the bets and 74% of the handle is on the over.

Pick: Notre Dame -7.5

Notre Dame is one of the hottest teams in the country. It didn't play anyone outstanding, but wins over Army and USC to close the season are nothing to scoff at. The last time Indiana faced a playoff-caliber team it was embarrassed by Ohio State.

The Hoosiers were a fun story in Curt Cignetti's first year, but they aren't talented enough to compete with Notre Dame, especially on the road.

No. 11 SMU @ No. 6 Penn State (-8.5, O/U 53.5)

SMU snuck into the playoff despite losing to Clemson in the ACC championship game. Many have argued that another SEC team should have been rewarded the spot, but the Mustangs have a chance to prove they belong against Penn State.

Case for SMU

• SMU doesn't own an impressive win but has handled business against inferior opponents all season.
• It has the nation's sixth-best scoring offense, averaging 38.5 points per game.
• SMU will need to keep pace with Penn State's offense through its passing game because it's struggled to contain passing attacks throughout the year.

Case for Penn State

• It's no secret James Franklin can't win big games. He's 1-14 against top-five teams. Although this might be considered a big game, it isn't against an opponent close to Penn State's caliber.
• SMU benefitted from a weak ACC schedule but hasn't proved it can defeat a superior team.
• Franklin has a great track record against inferior competition, and Penn State will benefit from a raucous home crowd.
• While the Nittany Lions' defense struggled against Oregon in the Big Ten championship, they'll have an easier time against a lesser SMU group.
• When Penn State feeds tight end Tyler Warren, one of the best offensive weapons in the country, it's unstoppable offensively.

Key trends

• SMU is 8-5 ATS, while Penn State is 6-7.
• Penn State is 3-3 ATS as a home favorite.
• It's also 0-3 ATS against ranked teams.
• SMU is 2-0 ATS as an underdog.
• Penn State's last four games have gone over the total.
• Bettors are split on this matchup: 51% of the bets and 55% of the handle are on Penn State to cover.

Pick: Penn State -8.5

SMU doesn't deserve to be in the playoff, which will be evident against a far superior opponent. The Mustangs don't have the defensive personnel to stop Penn State's offense. The Nittany Lions got lucky with a leisurely playoff path. For all the criticisms aimed at Franklin, he doesn't lose games he should win. This will be a blowout.

No. 12 Clemson @ No. 5 Texas (-11, O/U 51.5)

Clemson earned a playoff spot by winning the ACC but didn't obtain a first-round bye. Texas fell in the seeding after losing to Georgia in the SEC championship.

Case for Clemson

• Although it's facing a phenomenal defense, Clemson has a top-20 scoring offense.
• Texas' offensive inconsistencies could hurt it against a Clemson's stout defense.
• Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers has had his moments, but he's also stumbled in big spots throughout his career. He's thrown nine interceptions this season.

Case for Texas

• Texas' only two losses are to Georgia. It didn't have the daunting SEC schedule some of its counterparts faced, but it still has quality wins.
• The Longhorns boast the nation's second-best scoring defense, limiting opponents to 12.46 points per game.
• Clemson's offense has had some impressive outputs but floundered against the two SEC opponents it played. The Tigers scored three points in the season opener against Georgia and 14 points in the season finale versus South Carolina.
• It was clear Clemson was outmatched physically against SEC teams.

Key trends

• Texas is 7-6 ATS while Clemson is 6-7, but both teams are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games.
• Clemson is 0-2 ATS against SEC teams.
• Four of Clemson's last six games and Texas' last four have gone under the total.
• Clemson has covered only two of its last six games as an underdog.
• The bet percentages on the spread are nearly split between Clemson and Texas, but 62% of the handle is on Texas to cover.
• Slightly over 70% of the handle is on the under but slightly more than half the bets are on the over.

Pick: Clemson +11

Texas has defeated everyone except Georgia this season, but it only beat Texas A&M and Arkansas by 10 points each late in the season. Texas' offense isn't prolific enough to run up the score against Clemson's defense. The Tigers need just a few quality offensive possessions to score enough to keep this within the number.

No. 9 Tennessee @ No. 8 Ohio State (-7, O/U 47.5)

Ryan Day is facing more pressure than any other head coach in the College Football Playoff. It's safe to say Day is gone if the Buckeyes lose at home to Tennessee. Will Ohio State's devastating loss to Michigan galvanize the group or break it beyond repair?

Case for Tennessee

• Tennessee lost to Arkansas and Georgia but got its season-defining win at home over Alabama.
• The Volunteers are tied for the nation's fourth-best scoring defense, holding opponents to 13.92 points per game.
• They also have a top-10 scoring offense, one of three playoff teams with a top-10 scoring offense and defense.
• There's a chance Ohio State's loss to Michigan was so devastating that the Buckeyes fail to recover.

Case for Ohio State

• Ohio State has the best scoring defense, limiting teams to 10.92 points per game.
• Entering the season's final week, Ohio State's lone loss was to 1-seed Oregon. It defeated fellow playoff teams Penn State and Indiana.
• However, Ohio State lost to rival Michigan in the final game of the regular season. But while the Buckeyes shrink against their rival, they play to the standard of an exceptional team against all other opponents.
• Before its loss, Ohio State's offense had scored 30-plus points in three straight games.

Key trends

• Tennessee is 7-5 ATS, while Ohio State is 6-6.
• The Vols are 0-1 ATS as away underdogs but 3-1 ATS against ranked teams.
• Ohio State is 2-8 straight up in its last 10 games against SEC teams.
• Four of Tennessee's last five games have gone over the total, but five of Ohio State's last six have gone under.
• Tennessee +7 is the most public play of the first round, with more bets (67%) on the Vols than on any other spread. Tennessee has also received 62% of the handle.
• Almost 90% of the handle is on the under, but more than half of the bets are on the over.

Pick: Tennessee +7

Ohio State could collapse after its regular-season finale and the noise surrounding Day's job status. Ohio State's defense has shut down almost everyone it's seen this season, so Tennessee's offense will struggle to score. But Tennessee also has a talented defense.

This game has the lowest total among playoff games. Assuming it's a defensive battle, seven points is too many to gift the Buckeyes.

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.