Orange Bowl betting preview: Notre Dame slight favorite over Penn State
Two of college football's biggest brands will meet in Miami on Thursday night with a trip to the national championship on the line. Penn State had an easier path to the semifinals after defeating SMU and Boise State as a double-digit favorite. Notre Dame's win over Georgia in the quarterfinals silenced doubters still wondering if the Fighting Irish could beat talented and physical opponents.
The 12-team playoff feels like it was designed for teams like Penn State to get a chance at the national title after years of knocking on the door of the previous four-team tournament. However, James Franklin still hasn't won against elite competition, and Penn State has historically struggled against the best teams. This is Franklin's first chance this playoff to erase that narrative.
No. 5 Notre Dame vs. No. 4 Penn State (+1.5, O/U 44.5)
Notre Dame's defense was the story behind its win over Georgia, but quarterback Riley Leonard's dual-threat ability allowed the Fighting Irish's offense to score enough to put the Bulldogs away. Leonard threw for 90 yards and rushed for another 80. The Duke transfer has impressed during Notre Dame's 12-game win streak after a rocky start to the season.
Although many of those early wins were against weak opponents, the Fighting Irish have defeated Army, USC, Indiana, and Georgia in the last two months. Penn State also has a suspect secondary and has struggled to stop accurate quarterbacks, which should help Leonard.
Notre Dame overmatched Georgia on both lines of scrimmage, which is rare against a Kirby Smart-coached team. However, Penn State's offense is a different beast with a better quarterback and more playmakers.
Drew Allar has been exceptional, showcasing his arm talent while managing the game and (mostly) taking care of the ball. He's thrown 13 touchdowns and only three interceptions in the past nine games. It helps that Allar has a reliable running game and tight end Tyler Warren, one of the nation's most dominant pass-catchers.
Penn State has scored at least 30 in its last four games, including hanging 37 on Oregon in the Big Ten championship. Notre Dame has the nation's second-best scoring defense but hasn't played an offense as dynamic as Penn State's. Remember, Georgia started a backup quarterback against the Fighting Irish. Despite Notre Dame's physicality, Penn State has a strong offensive line to combat the Irish's defensive line.
Notre Dame hasn't lost since the first week of September, and it's the only remaining team with a top-five scoring offense and defense. It's understandable why the group from South Bend is favored in South Beach.
There's also the Franklin factor. Penn State's coach rarely stumbles against inferior competition but consistently comes up short as an underdog. Franklin is 1-14 against top-five opponents at Penn State, with his lone win coming in 2016. A win over Notre Dame would certainly quiet critics - many of whom are from Penn State's fan base - but a loss would amplify the disgust.
If possible, let's forget about Penn State constantly losing big games. Its offense is rolling. Both teams want to run the ball, but Allar has delivered explosive plays all season, completing 67% of his passes. Although over 60% of the bets and more than half of the money wagered are on Notre Dame's spread, count on Allar and Penn State's offense to overpower the Fighting Irish's stout defense.
Pick: Penn State +1.5
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.