Night and Day: Ohio State's improbable date with destiny

The 2024 schedule of the Northern Illinois Huskies looks a lot like that of an average mid-major football team. They lost to Buffalo but beat Bowling Green. They lost to Toledo but beat Akron. Lost to Miami of Ohio but pulled out a win against Central Michigan.

Oh, and they beat Notre Dame.

Not, like, Notre Dame of Delaware or some other small, random school. The big one, in South Bend, with the golden domes and all that. The same team that went 14-0 in its other games, including wins over Texas A&M, USC, Georgia, and Penn State.

And yet, Northern Illinois' victory over the Fighting Irish in September might not be the biggest outlier in college football this campaign. To bookend the regular season, Michigan went to Ohio State and were almost 20-point underdogs. The Wolverines had lost head coach Jim Harbaugh and quarterback J.J. McCarthy among many departures after their championship season and already had four losses in the Big Ten. They were 113th in the nation in points scored and averaged fewer than 130 yards passing per game.

And they beat the Buckeyes 13-10.

In any college football season before this one, it would have had profound consequences. Head coach Ryan Day, instead of finally breaking his losing streak against a depleted Michigan team, would surely have had that last loss as his final appearance on the Ohio State sideline. The defeat knocked the Buckeyes out of the conference championship game, so they would have had no shot at a spot in a four-team playoff even though their only other loss was to then-No. 1 Oregon, on the road by a single point.

Day spoke about being haunted by the loss, and it honestly sounded like he might never get over it.

But this wasn't a college football season like any before it, and in the world of the 12-team playoff, there are second chances. And third chances. Just like Notre Dame's face-plant against Northern Illinois didn't end up being disqualifying, Ohio State's Michigan meltdown was also just a blip. Instead of getting fired the day after losing to the Wolverines, he had to get his team ready for the expanded playoffs.

And did he ever. Ohio State dropped 42 points on Tennessee in the first round, and another 41 in a rematch with Oregon in the quarterfinals. By the time the Buckeyes met Texas in the playoff semifinals, the loss to Michigan looked all that more bewildering. How did this team that couldn't stop scoring touchdowns manage only 10 points against the Wolverines? Did the game end after a quarter? The eventual victory over Texas wasn't as lopsided, but Ohio State still showed a propensity for explosive plays.

Notre Dame's run to the final has been less dominant, but just about as impressive. It began by absolutely stifling Indiana in the first round, 27-17, with the Hoosiers scoring twice in garbage time. Next up was Georgia, just the kind of southern power that has embarrassed the Fighting Irish in previous playoff appearances. Notre Dame held the Bulldogs to fewer than 300 yards of offense. Lastly came Penn State in a thrilling semifinal in which the Irish were down 10 in the first half and down seven in the fourth quarter before escaping with a 27-24 win.

And, again: They lost to Northern Illinois! Whatever head coach Marcus Freeman said and did in the aftermath of that defeat, it has plainly worked. The Irish went from a team whose season was over after just two weeks to a team that has a shot at its first national title in 37 years. Whole generations of people who had heard about dominant Notre Dame teams but had never seen any evidence of it have finally witnessed it in recent weeks.

Freeman and the Irish come into the game as 8.5-point underdogs amid doubt that, for all of their impressive wins, they just don't have the firepower to keep up with a Buckeyes team that can rip off explosive plays from all over the field. Wideout Jeremiah Smith had 290 receiving yards and four touchdowns in their first two playoff games but was unexpectedly bottled up against Texas. Without his most effective target, quarterback Will Howard still threw for 289 yards, including a 75-yard screen pass that TreVeyon Henderson took for a touchdown. The Buckeyes over this playoff run seem as if they can score from anywhere.

Which puts the spotlight back on Ryan Day. There is no rivalry to speak of here - if anything, both teams are joined only in a mutual dislike of Michigan - but once again, Ohio State finds itself as a big favorite on a big stage.

Has anyone ever lost his job after getting his team to the national title game? Ryan Day has one obvious way to ensure he's not the first.

Scott Stinson is a contributing writer for theScore.