CFP quarterfinals bets: Trusting Ohio State as big favorites over Miami
If it weren't for a devastating James Madison backdoor cover against Oregon, we would have gone undefeated with our picks to kick off the College Football Playoff. However, we won't complain about a 3-1 start. Let's keep feeding the hot hand for the quarterfinals as eight teams' national title hopes remain alive. There's no better way to ring in the new year.
🏈 Full College Football Playoff odds can be found on theScore Bet here
Wednesday, Dec. 31
Game time: 7:30 p.m. ET
Location: AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
🏈 Pick: Ohio State (-9.5)
Miami upset Texas A&M in the opening round 10-3 thanks to a herculean defensive effort. However, the Aggies' offense doesn't come close to Ohio State's. Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin is a massive upgrade over Texas A&M's Marcel Reed, and Ohio State's playmakers are as explosive as any in the country.
Miami's offensive performance against Texas A&M was concerning considering that Ohio State's defense allows 213 yards and eight points per game, the best marks in the country. The Hurricanes won't produce enough points to keep the game competitive.
Other than its Big Ten championship loss to No. 1 Indiana, Ohio State has rolled opponents all season. The Buckeyes' 10-2-1 record against the spread is the nation's second-best mark.
Thursday, Jan. 1
Game time: 12 p.m.
Location: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida
🏈 Pick: Oregon (-2.5)
Texas Tech hasn't played a game in nearly a month, while Oregon destroyed James Madison in an opening-round matchup last week. This game revives the age-old debate of rest versus rust. If the latter wins out, the Red Raiders could start slow. In a game played within the margins between two evenly matched teams - this is the only spread of the weekend under a field goal - every detail matters.
The Red Raiders own a top-three scoring offense and defense, while Oregon ranks in the top 10 in both categories. The Ducks' offensive balance should help them exploit Texas Tech's sturdy defense. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore is a likely first-rounder, but the team still relies on its running game, averaging nearly 6 yards per carry. I trust Oregon's offensive line to get enough push against a loaded Texas Tech defensive front, which could ultimately be the difference in a coin-flip contest.
Game time: 4 p.m.
Location: Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California
🏈 Pick: Alabama (+7.5)
Skeptics pointed to the Crimson Tide's rough offensive play down the stretch as the reason Alabama would lose to Oklahoma in the opening round. Through most of the first half, those skeptics looked right. Alabama trailed by 17 before scoring 24 unanswered and eventually won 34-24.
Alabama's defense is good enough to win the national title. Questions remain about its offensive consistency, especially against the nation's second-best scoring defense. But the Crimson Tide are too talented to be a touchdown underdog to any team. That first-round comeback might have helped them rediscover their offensive identity, especially with Ty Simpson throwing dimes in the second half. Indiana's dominance against the nation's best teams is no secret, but this is just too many points.
Game time: 8 p.m.
Location: Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
🏈 Pick: Georgia (-6.5)
When these teams met in October, Georgia recorded over 500 total yards and won 43-35. The Bulldogs have won nine straight, including the SEC championship, and are playing as well as any team that's still alive. Georgia leans on its running game, but Gunner Stockton's passing abilities create a balanced offense. Ole Miss allowed the SEC's fourth-most rushing yards per game, meaning Georgia's running game is likely to explode. The Bulldogs ran for 221 yards in their first matchup.
Lane Kiffin's absence didn't impact Ole Miss against Tulane. However, Georgia is a different beast. Without his game planning, it's hard to envision the Rebels scoring enough to keep up with Georgia and make up for their own porous defense. Plus, the Bulldogs' defense has improved since defeating the Rebels, holding its final six opponents under 22 points each.
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