When Is it Time to Rebuild in Keeper Leagues?

A disastrous April can make a fantasy comeback seem nigh impossible, even though 5/6 of the season remains.

By the time May comes around, a team's needs are pretty clear. While it's important to identify what went wrong - injuries, poor draft, missing stats, Pablo Sandoval - it doesn't mean it's time to throw in the towel. Then again, a rebuild in keeper leagues may be closer than you're ready to admit.

Take Inventory

In rotisserie leagues, every accumulative stat matters from the opening day onward. Head-to-head owners have the luxury of not being permanently stung by one apocalyptic week. Roto owners will have to scramble a bit more.

While panic is never the preferred mode of operation, a sense of urgency, even in early May, is a good trait. Beyond eyeballing your lineup, dig deeper to see where your team is consistently coming up short. While doing this, carefully comb over the roster. Who is underperforming?

Hitters like Tigers 1B Miguel Cabrera and pitchers like Astros LHP Dallas Keuchel have not lived up to expectations - and it's fair to say they will likely not perform this poorly over the course of a full season. Three of Cabrera's four home runs have come in his last seven games.

Keuchel has been hampered by a combination of bad luck and poor command. He's walking more than four batters per nine innings and has suffered against a .348 opponent's BABIP. Hold onto him because no one will return desired value. For a failing team, players like Keuchel and Cabrera will hopefully be trade chips, provided they do return to form.

Tinker With and Tailor Your Lineup

Don't stand pat. Barring catastrophic circumstances, it's not yet prime time to start the rebuild. Even with a team in the toilet with no clear path to success, it's not the best course of action to hit the eject button. Not entirely, anyway.

Identify the categories of weakness and toil in the waiver wire. Cut ties with middling names and don't look back. With every add/drop there is inherent risk involved. The dropped player could conceivably get hot while the added player could go 0-for-30.

May is the perfect time to tinker with your existing lineup in an effort to compete now. That's the goal, after all. The waiver wire is the safest way to do this, but it's not likely going to yield anything more than filler most of the time. People hit on waiver sleepers every year, but in the grand scheme of roster moves, it's a small percentage.

The only way you improve your team exponentially is through trades. In May, this is difficult because opponents are still feeling out their teams. It's best not to trade an underachiever right away. Cabrera and Keuchel will never have a lower valuation. Injury or further decline are real risks, but worst case scenario involves eating the roster choices and re-assessing come 2017.

Don't Wait Too Long

Here's the problem: The further along in the season, the fewer true contenders emerge. One of the more painful ways for a season to end is winding up smack in the middle of the standings.

By the end of May, a decision has to be made if you're in the middle of the standings. Being at the top or the bottom almost makes your decision for you, though some hold out hope for a second-half surge. This is rare. Otherwise, make a determined choice to push for the top or purge the team and play for next season. Half-measures only half work.

What you don't want to do is hang onto these expensive into the offeseason. They do nothing for your team now and they do nothing for your team next year. Unload the most expensive names or players attached to early keeper rounds the following season.

That doesn't mean trading big-name assets for players who will be fantasy relevant in two or three years. In 2013, Colorado Rockies 3B Nolan Arenado would have been a prime target after during his 10-homer debut season. Contenders know they have to part with future assets in order to make a push now, don't settle for less.

Monitor players like Texas Rangers OF Nomar Mazara and New York Mets OF Michael Conforto. They've both had an immediate impact, but are certainly not untouchable for a proven big name.

Go Nuts

If the odds of competing are low, use this time to try some crazy strategies you wouldn't try otherwise. For example, if you have three closers and one loses his job while another goes out for the season, instead of patchworking a bullpen, trade your remaining closer to a contender. His saves won't do you any good.

A little more extreme would be to put the bulk of your focus on one area - pitching or hitting - and sacrifice anything remotely close to a sure thing in the other category. Trade your top pitchers for value hitters and see where the chips fall. Go extreme with this. The obvious way would be to permanently stream pitchers after trading the most expensive names away for future gain.

Instead, since hitting is often seen as the more valuable commodity, leverage your top hitting stars for young, affordable arms. Don't attach too much value to name recognition. Trading Cabrera for a combination of Jose Berrios and Tyler Glasnow can make sense, even if it's disproportionate in the moment. Ideally, you'd pair one of them with a slightly more established arm.

It will be competitive atop the league, and if one owner balks at the asking price or lowballs you on a counter, move onto another contender. Use the time in the middle of the standings to experiment

Finally, if an early offer comes in that matches something you think you might want down the road - like the above Cabrera for Berrios/Glasnow deal - don't hesitate to start the rebuild a bit early.