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Short Term Forecast: Jose Berrios and 5 Other Exciting Young Arms

Brace Hemmelgarn / Getty Images Sport / Getty

With two starts under the belts of a few of MLB's most exciting young arms, speculation and hype machines are churning. More are in the pipeline; high-profile names Lucas Giolito, Tyler Glasnow and Julio Urias have yet to debut.

But what is the fantasy landscape like for those who have already pitched in the majors this season? Young arms are volatile and difficult to trust, but remember that Mets RHP Noah Syndergaard, a fantasy stud, debuted in 2015. Immediate fantasy impact is not only possible, it happens every year.

These future stars are snatched up in all keeper and dynasty leagues where owners can wait. In standard redraft leagues, roster spots are precious.

RHP Jose Berrios, Minnesota Twins

Of the names to get the call so far, Berrios has the most hype behind him. He has outstanding strikeout upside - as he's shown with 13 Ks through his first 9 1/3 innings pitched - but has yet to find his command, which is expected to be a strength. While minor league numbers don't translate perfectly, he's also never been one to allow many long balls.

His path to continued playing time is clear. Ervin Santana is expected to pitch this weekend, but Kyle Gibson remains on the DL and the Twins released Tommy Milone on Friday. Considering the lack of depth in Minnesota's rotation beyond them, Berrios should stick with the team long term - though some seasoning at Triple-A could be in the cards if he struggles.

His next scheduled start comes at home against the Baltimore Orioles on Monday followed by a second chance against the Cleveland Indians, who spoiled his debut. Berrios is risky against the Orioles, and expectations need to be held in check, but he's a worthy start through both of these games.

LHP Sean Manaea, Oakland Athletics

Berrios will be started by everyone because of his hype and upside, but Manaea deserves his looks, too. With a season-ending injury to SP Chris Bassitt, and Henderson Alvarez's placement on the DL, there's little risk of him being sent down.

His ERA is probably higher than it should be, but he made immediate improvements from his first start to his second. He struck out more and walked fewer batters over the same amount of time and his FIP was much better his second time out.

He'll face his toughest test in his next start against the Boston Red Sox, but they have also fared third-worst this season with a .215 team batting average against southpaws. A tough home date against the Rangers follows. Manaea has excellent upside but might be worth stashing until he shows it in action.

RHP Michael Fulmer, Detroit Tigers

Fulmer has much less fanfare around him than either Manaea or Berrios, and his value, for now, is more apparent in AL-only leagues or as a matchup-based streaming option. He was creamed by the Cleveland Indians for five runs over five innings, allowing 10 hits in the process, including a pair of big flies. The one saving grace was the six strikeouts.

The Ks aren't gaudy enough, though, to mitigate the impact of the damage. His grasp on the fifth spot in the rotation is also tenuous if he struggles against the Washington Nationals in his next start. As soon as RHP Shane Greene is healthy, Fulmer's time at the big league level may be cut short - at which time he'll be droppable in all formats short of keepers.

RHP Aaron Blair, Atlanta Braves

Blair was one of the coveted pieces going to Atlanta in the Shelby Miller trade with Arizona. The biggest drawback in fantasy, at least in 2016, will be a significant lack of victories. Even when he stymied the powerhouse Chicago Cubs over six innings in his last outing, the bullpen and offense failed him.

With his low K rate, he's not of much value beyond NL-only leagues. His place in the rotation seems safe for now, but he could be in for a tough start against the visiting Diamondbacks. Even as a streaming option, he's high risk with little reward, though he does draw the overachieving Philadelphia Phillies next week, which could make him worth a speculative flier.

RHP Robert Stephenson, Cincinnati Reds

With the amount of injuries sustained by the Reds rotation, it's incredible that Stephenson didn't stick around past his first two starts. While he didn't showcase a top-notch K rate, he pitched efficiently, especially in his seven-inning, three hit, one run victory against the Colorado Rockies.

With the Reds' rotation getting somewhat healthier despite the Raisel Iglesias injury - which could have been followed by a Stephenson call-up, but wasn't - Stephenson and his fans may have to wait a while longer, though he should be back at the big league level during the summer. Don't bother stashing him outside of keeper leagues.

LHP Blake Snell, Tampa Bay Rays

Snell's debut against the New York Yankees was a relative success, but he was on a clear leash. That he only went five innings suggests inefficiency, but no, he only threw 62 pitches. He struck out six, walked one, and allowed only two hits. It was the single best performance by any pitcher on this list.

But he's not in the majors and you probably shouldn't expect him to be. The Rays are loaded at SP, though an argument can be made to move Erasmo Ramirez to the bullpen full time, and Snell has struggled with control in his last few minor league starts - issuing five walks in his last game and at least three in each of the three starts before that.

As exciting as he is, the looming presence of injured RHP Alex Cobb only muddies the water. He's best left on the wire.

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