What Defense Can Tell Us About Future Fantasy Value

For obvious reasons, elite team defense doesn't generally factor into fantasy baseball strategy. Still, there are several indirect ways that defense interacts with fantasy baseball, creating an opportunity for savvy players to find predictive information where others see little value.

Pitching Regression

A defense's ability to convert challenging plays can help an otherwise average pitcher get out of sticky situations, salvaging his ERA and improving his chances of recording a win.

Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) is a complicated formula that boils recent and current trends into a number that reflects a player's contributions on defense. A UZR of zero is the average, with positive and negative defensive value falling on either side of that mid-point.

The improvement of the Chicago Cubs' defense through the acquisition of OF Jason Heyward and 2B/OF Ben Zobrist, as well as improvements from holdovers 3B/OF Kris Bryant, OF Dexter Fowler and SS Addison Russell, has been profound.

Collectively, the Chicago defense has a UZR of 22.8 runs above average - the top mark in the majors. In fact, the only clear negative presence in the field is when slugging OF Jorge Soler plays in left.

As a result, several Cubs pitchers have outperformed their Fielding-Independent Pitching (FIP) numbers. FIP is read on the same scale as ERA but, by accounting for defense, FIP is seen as a more accurate representation of ability.

The FIP of the Cubs' rotation shows how their elite defense (and a little luck) is making aging veterans look like aces:

E-F simply subtracts a player's FIP from his ERA, giving a broad idea of how much his team's defense has aided (or hurt) their ERA. Arrieta, the reigning NL Cy Young winner, has received a substantial boost beyond his superlative FIP. He has the eighth-lowest E-F among 140 pitchers with at least 30 IP in 2016.

Arrieta came into the season as the consensus No. 3 starting pitcher in fantasy, so his value hasn't changed too dramatically. He's still going to cost an arm and maybe several legs to get a deal done with his owner.

To a lesser degree, Lester and Hammel have also benefited from their teammates - and it has raised their respective fantasy values dramatically. Lester's average draft position pegged him as the 19th starter off the board; now, he has moved himself into the 10-15 range.

Considering Hammel sported an ADP near 200 in the preseason, he has already returned value several times over for his fantasy owners. After falling apart down the stretch in 2015, there's hope that an improved defense behind him can insulate him from another collapse. Risk-averse owners would be wise to divest in Hammel while his value is high.

On the other end of the spectrum, both Lackey and Hendricks have actually recorded a weaker ERA than their FIP would suggest. Perhaps the hits keep falling in the vicinity of Soler, or it's just a matter of bad luck.

In any case, both are intriguing buy-low candidates, as the defense behind them should lead to improved ERA while the Cubs' number two-ranked offense should increase win totals. I believe Hendricks can be a top-50 starting pitcher from now until the end of season.

Playing Time & Changes in Role

While the Cubs' elite defense offers an extreme case study, there are other ways we can use tools like UZR and FIP and their derivatives to predict changes based on team defense.

Contending teams with poor team defenses, like that of the AL West-leading Seattle Mariners (-7.5 UZR; 25th overall) feature a number of obvious holes. In particular: injured SS Ketel Marte has a UZR of -12.3 at a crucial defensive position, and Adam Lind has a UZR of -10.9 as the team's primary first baseman.

It looks like the team will give Shawn O'Malley a look in Marte's absence. Time will tell if that's a marked improvement or an even bigger hindrance to his team's pitching success.

Lind is a different story. The veteran is hitting just .221/.252/.327 on the year and turns 33 in July. With his contract up at the end of the season, a new Seattle majority ownership group with their eyes on breaking a 14-season playoff drought might elect to make a drastic change to acquire a better glove (and bat) before the trade deadline.

For now, a dark horse candidate to take over at first has emerged internally. 1B Dae-Ho Lee is hitting .254 in 63 plate appearances and has already tacked on another six big flies to his career, which includes 14 seasons spent in the South Korean and Japanese domestic leagues.

The gap in playing time between Lind and Lee has been closing; the former has 52 PAs in May to Lee's 36. More importantly, Lee's play at first base would put him on pace for a UZR of 26.8 over 150 games, a massive improvement over Lind.

As Lind has never shown an ability to hit left-handed pitching, the right-handed Lee has seen the majority of his playing time against southpaws. But by hitting .318 BA with a 1.075 OPS against RHPs (albeit, in a small sample size), Lee is making it tough to justify keeping Lind with his .221/.252/.327 line and poor glove in the starting lineup.

If he can seize an everyday role, Lee's presence in fantasy would be first restricted to a situational DFS play. A big fantasy breakout for a rookie who turns 34 next month is improbable but it's still a situation worth monitoring.

Look at how a team's defense could be altered by a roster move. Pitchers who stand to see their ERA and wins improve alongside the defense behind them will be thankful, as will their backers in fantasy baseball. Alternatively, if Bryant and Heyward get knocked out for the season, you better find a way to sell all of your Hammel shares, and quick.