Fantasy Fallout: Take a Walk on the Wild Side with Blake Snell; Ditch Andriese
Here are the fantasy implications following the news that the Tampa Bay Rays will promote SP prospect Blake Snell to the majors while shifting SP Matt Andriese to the bullpen:
Season-Long Fantasy
Snell came into this season as one of the top prospects to monitor. The Rays have established a great track record of knowing when a minor-leaguer is ready for promotion and typically get solid results from their young arms. Check out the seasons by Matt Moore in 2012, Chris Archer in 2013, Jake Odorizzi in 2014 and Nathan Karns in 2015.
Each of those four pitchers made their debut in a prior season before having their big breakout year. Snell made his major league debut -- a five-inning, one-earned-run spot start -- in late April but has otherwise seen relatively limited action in the high minors.
The worry for fantasy owners would be that if Snell struggles, he could find himself back in the minors for additional fine-tuning. Still, that is a relatively low risk for a player that was likely stashed on a minor-league player slot or left un-owned altogether. And the upside certainly outweighs the risk.
Snell has been among the Rays' top-10 prospects since 2012, per MLB.com's Prospect Watch, impressing scouts with a repertoire that includes a plus fastball, above average slider and changeup, as well as a curveball. The diversity of his offerings has led to 90 strikeouts in 63 innings at Triple-A Durham.

With every promotion through the Rays' system, Snell's strikeout rate stayed steady. While fooling major-league hitters will be a new challenge, he's already seen plenty of "quad-A" talent in 107 and 1/3 innings at Triple-A and projects to be a strikeout-per-inning man once he gets his bearings in the majors.
But along with the knockout stuff, Snell has also allowed 28 walks in those 63 innings, a BB/9 of four. The free passes have been the Kryptonite that kept him at A-ball or lower from 2011 to the beginning of 2015 and will continue to be a barrier to success in the majors unless he improves his approach.
Luckily, Snell does a good job of limiting homers, so opposing offenses have been unable to cash-in on those walks. It wouldn't be surprising to see Snell strikeout eight batters over six scoreless innings in one start, then give up five runs in two innings his next outing.
Usage will be a going concern, which could limit Snell's value in points leagues where sheer volume is sometimes more valuable than per-inning production. Odorizzi averaged just over five and 1/3 innings in his first full season as a major-league starter; Archer was slightly more prolific, coming in at just a tick under five and 2/3 innings per start in 2013. Expect the same for Snell.
His starts from here on out could end up looking a lot like his debut -- low inning totals but solid strikeout numbers. Tampa Bay's bats have scored 4.2 runs per game this season (18th in the majors) so though projecting win totals is an inexact science, he'll have fairly neutral run support and should pick up a handful of wins.
Snell is a must-add in standard formats and no doubt already owned in keeper and AL-only leagues. Whether he should be started is another question that should be approached on a per-game basis.

Andriese is an unfortunate casualty of the Rays' surplus of younger pitchers with greater upside. Despite pitching 44 and 2/3 innings with a 2.82 ERA, he'll transition into a relief role. That should help him reach back for a bit more velocity, which should bring a higher strikeout rate; 6.04 strikeouts per nine innings as a starter left little margin for error.
The Tampa Bay bullpen is more or less set, with Alex Colome likely to hang on to closing duties as long as Brad Boxberger doesn't rise from the dead like Lazarus. Erasmo Ramirez and Xavier Cedeno are both trusted middle-relievers that have combined for 20 holds, so Andriese won't be in a position for even the fringiest late-inning counting stats.
Andriese can now be dropped without a second thought, though he will be worth picking up once more if he returns to a starting role later in the season.
Daily Fantasy
There are two scenarios that I would consider deploying Snell in daily formats:
- In two-pitcher tournament formats against teams that strikeout a lot. His fantasy value will be capped by his inability to go deep into games, but a team like the Astros, who strikeout in 25.5 percent of their plate appearances against LHPs, could lead to GPP-level fantasy production.
- In two-pitcher cash games when the opposing lineup is weak, especially if they struggle against left-handed pitching. As a cheap counterpart to a veteran with a high floor, Snell could provide some salary relief to improve the lineup's hitting.
In any case, Snell's track record of five innings in the majors doesn't provide a deep well of information to draw from, so any lineup featuring him as your pitcher bears risk of disappointment.
At the right price, that volatility still has value in cash games but he needs to be paired with strong, established pitching in those formats. If Snell's your man in a one-pitcher format, you're asking for trouble; but without any of the uncapped upside of a pitcher capable of throwing seven-plus innings.
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