What to Look For When Rebuilding in Auction Leagues

In early May I, perhaps prematurely, looked into the timelines connected to rebuilding keeper league teams and what to do when considering throwing in the towel in auction leagues. By now, the picture is much clearer. It will be much harder, especially in rotisserie, to dig out of a crater.

In mid-June, I actually prefer being a bottom-feeder than someone in the middle of the pack. It is a defined role and clarity is something too often absent in fantasy sports. In keeper leagues, the game takes different shapes and dimensions for those out of the running.

Unlike reality, taking a multi-season approach to rebuilding like Houston Astros is not ideal in fantasy. What can you do to make a worst-to-first jump? The short answer: start now. The longer answer follows.

Superstars

If you're at the bottom of your league's standings and decide it's time to sell for next season, the odds of acquiring a superstar are slim and it's counter-intuitive to the goal of acquiring affordable talent. Superstars are more expensive and feature more value to contending teams now. Don't try for Mike Trout, he's suffering enough on the Angels this season.

If a fantasy superstar doesn't have a lofty price tag, that means he either came out of nowhere or matured very quickly. This type of player is even more difficult to acquire. You, at the bottom, have no leverage and will likely be laughed out of trade negotiations before they even start.

Superstars are also your strongest trade chips. But you bid aggressively for them at the auction and in your current state of disrepair, they are doing you no good and are not likely to be kept at their rising price so you need to pursue movement. Don't sell low, however, as contending teams need them more than you need to be rid of them.

Closers

They don't carry as much fanfare and turnover is constant, but if you have a solid closer or two they can be huge chips. If your league operates with standard five-by-five scoring categories, saves are at a premium. Any improvement will help and dangling a dependable bullpen arm could sway an opponent to part with a decent future piece.

Unless you can keep a top closer for an insanely-low price, and even in that event it makes them more appealing in a trade, don't get attached. The return is less likely to be a top piece like Nationals prospect Lucas Giolito, but looking toward players likely to debut or drastically improve their roles in 2017 a few rungs down might be a better course of action.

Top Prospects

The best prospects in the minors will be rostered in most keeper leagues. The strategy is simple: Hold onto these pieces in case they debut and catch fire - see Nomar Mazara - or become trade bait for a contending team.

It is in both parties' best interest to strike a deal. Someone on the cusp of a championship will need to realize that losing out on a future star is sometimes the only way to win in the present. Very few will own a Tyler Glasnow while still having a 30-point roto lead. Other than that special circumstance, no prospect, even those dipping their toes in MLB-waters, should be untouchable.

The problem is the speed in which some of these names transcend prospect status. Dodgers SS Corey Seager is now too valuable now to be traded by anyone in contention unless the return is overwhelming. But if an out-of-contention owner targeted him via trade prior to his September call-up last season, they'd currently own one of the top breakouts of 2016 at a low price.

Try to target hot prospects prior to their debuts; as soon as they've made it to the big leagues as a full-time player, it will be next to impossible to acquire that sort of talent inexpensively.

Mid-Range or Deep Prospects

Some of these players will be available in the free agent pool. Maybe a few of them were drafted, but reality set in and your competitors realized they weren't coming to The Show anytime soon. Even if your league lacks "not active" slots, if your team is so far out of it and the leaders are stubbornly trying to have the best of both worlds, this is your best back-up option.

A player like Astros shortstop prospect Alex Bregman is slashing .313/.411/.589 with 13 home runs, 45 RBIs and has a 1.40 BB/K ratio in 50 Double-A games. While it appears his debut is blocked by Carlos Correa, a lot could shake out in the near future. Bregman is playing more third base, which is a hole at the MLB level, or he could be traded.

A 2016 appearance is not out of the question, but it's also not a guarantee. He's also less likely to have a hype-boosted keeper salary - Giolito, Glasnow and Julio Urias were likely bought at higher prices in auction leagues than perhaps they're worth while Bregman went under the radar.

Other options include outfielders Austin Meadows (PIT), Clint Frazier (CLE) or Hunter Renfroe (SD), infielder Josh Bell (PIT), or pitchers Sean Newcomb (ATL) and Amir Garrett (CIN). Don't be overzealous with prospects. They're unproven at the top levels and represent great risk. If you overvalue them as keepers, you may not have enough muscle to compete next year, either.

Mid-Range Players and Disappointments

Let's use Minnesota Twins 1B/DH Byung Ho Park as the lead example. His 11 home runs are nice and that's about it. He's killing roto teams with a .207 batting average and paltry 20 RBIs relative to the homers, though blame should also be attributed to his teammates' collective inability to get on base.

Park came into the season as a sleeper of sorts, and was being bought like a mid-to-late auction flier. Players like Park have appropriately been kicked to the curb and those hanging on are clinging to hope.

These players are not keeper-worthy and they aren't attractive in trades. Cut your losses and drop them. Rotate other players in and out of the lineup to see if someone catches fire. This was the case with Phillies OF Odubel Herrera in 2015 and he could have been an affordable keeper in a pinch.

Injuries and Changing Roles

With the pending doom awaiting Blue Jays SP Aaron Sanchez owners knowing he absolutely, positively will move to the bullpen, it opens a door for the trolls living under the last-place bridge. This is why it's important to monitor the news of various players throughout the season.

Sanchez would likely have been untouchable, or at least cost a lot via trade, following his incredible start. This move should make him cheaper if his owner gets desperate. Sanchez, and players in similar situations are no longer going to help as much this season, but have great value next season when restrictions will be relaxed.

Remember, you're also at the mercy of how your rivals value players, both theirs and yours. Even if it's in someone's best interest to trade a player like Sanchez, or injured Diamondbacks OF A.J. Pollock, fandom and personal bias may prevent a fair trade from ever occurring.