Winning strategies: Point-weight pick 'em pools

"Point-weight pick 'em" or "confidence pick 'em" pools require perusing a selected number of NFL games per week, choosing a winner, and assigning a confidence rank to each selection.

The confidence rank is a specific value you assign to each game based on your belief or "confidence" that said pick will turn out correct. The higher the rank, the more confident you are in that team's chances of victory.

Point-weight pools can be conducted using either an outright-win formula, or they can be made more challenging by using point spreads. For the purposes of this article, we'll focus on outright-win point-weight pools.

Your initial thought in a confidence pool may be to simply select the biggest favorites each and every week. It would only make sense to place your highest confidence in the biggest favorite. Unfortunately, that strategy won't separate you from some of your competitors who are sure to opt for the exact same strategy.

So how do you gain separation from the pack?

The Contrarian Angle

To be contrarian in a win-based confidence pick 'em pool, participants will ultimately have to pick a few upset winners. Taking New England to defeat San Francisco isn't worth much when everybody else has the same pick.

With Vegas spreads determining the favorite and underdog for each game, weekly spreads will undoubtedly influence your picks, and the picks of your fellow pool participants.

But after looking at results from the past five NFL seasons and the coordinating favorite and underdogs, as determined by the Vegas spread, there are a few week-to-week trends that pool players can use to their advantage going into this season.

This data that incorporates the most recent 1,285 NFL games indicates that specific stretches of the season are more or less prone to upsets and can be used by pool players to better decide when and how often to go contrarian.

The Numbers Say ...

In terms of picking upsets, the past five seasons of results show that Weeks 1 through 4 actually rank as the best long-term stretch for contrarian and upset plays.

The upset percentage - defined as instances when an underdog determined by the Vegas spread comes out victorious - pins these four weeks with a win percentage between 33.5 and 37.5 percent. This opening stretch makes up four of the top eight upset-prone weeks.

Upon further reflection, this trend does seem relatively logical. Vegas, like the public, has little team knowledge and just preseason results to try and set accurate spreads. Early on, the terms "favorite" and "underdog" hold as little weight as they will all season.

As a result, pool participants should be more open to placing higher confidence choices in upset picks during the opening four weeks. This doesn't necessarily mean choosing the biggest upset each week, simply that players should be more tolerable of risk at this time.

When to Play it Safe

On the other side of the coin, NFL results from the past five years also indicate certain times to play it safe. Following the logic of Vegas becoming increasingly accurate deeper into the season, favorites tend to fare better in the latter portion of the year. Should you still be in contention come Week 11, it is time to hedge your bets.

Since 2011, Weeks 11 through 14 rank as four of the top seven weeks to play it safe. This stretch of favorite favoritism sees all four of these weeks sport an upset percentage between 27.5 and 31.1 percent. Within this four-week stretch, Weeks 13 and 14 rank as two of the top three overall safest weeks.

From this data, pool players should pay greater respect to weekly spreads in the second half of the season and specifically between Weeks 11 and 14. As they say, "the house always wins," and it seems their ability to better predict outcomes increases during the second-half.

The Home Stretch

For those lucky and skilled enough to be in contention in the final weeks of their confidence pick 'em pool, NFL results from the past five years can still be effective during this closing stretch.

For those wiling or forced to go against the grain in the final three weeks, Weeks 15 and 16 move back toward upsets, especially when compared to the favorite favoritism just discussed in Weeks 11-14.

Specifically, Week 15 ranks as third most upset-heavy week at 36.2 percent and Week 16 ranking sixth at 33.7.

Attempts to explain this late upset-spike can likely be attributed to looming playoff pressures. With playoff hopes on the line, underdog teams vying for a playoff spot are likely to be extra motivated near season's end.

At this juncture, point-weight pool players should re-adjust their confidence ranks to reflect the increased chance of an upset and must be cognizant of potential playoff implications.

The Anomaly that is Week 17

The final week of the regular season is always a mixture of meaningless games and a series of interdependent games that decide crucial playoff scenarios. This dynamic often hypes upset picks as teams try to play spoiler or face a lackadaisical playoff-bound opponent that may be resting key starters.

But should pool players who need a big Week 17 be willing to place their confidence in a spoiler or underdog situation? The answer is actually a resounding "no," and a "no" that echoes louder than any other week.

Over the past five years, Week 17 actually ranks as the worst week for upsets. The upset percentage in Week 17 sits at exactly 15 percent, which is 11.7 percent worse than the second-closest week, Week 7, at 26.7 percent.

Though you may think Week 17 is more likely to breed crazy upsets, the past five years of results indicate you couldn't be more wrong.