Nicklas Backstrom needs to be your early-season trade target
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Coming into the 2016-17 NHL season, public perception on the fantasy value of Washington Capitals C Nicklas Backstrom was near an all-time low. He had been bumped off his long-held spot on the team's top line, where he had the beneficiary of centering LW Alex Ovechkin.
He had never tallied fewer than 65 points in a season where he played at least 70 games. He notched 44 and 48 points in seasons of 42 and 48 games, respectively. His career-high of 33 goals came in the 2009-10 season when he registered 222 shots on goal, the highest total of his career and one of just two times he topped 200 SOG.
Backstrom ranked third among Capitals' scoring leaders in the 2009-10 season, behind Ovechkin (50) and LW Alexander Semin (44). His 101 points were second only to Ovechkin's 109. He led the team with 26 power-play points, something he has done all but one year since. He has totaled at least 30 power-play points in each of the past three seasons.
What Changed?
Evgeny Kuznetsov led the Capitals in scoring last season, just his second full year in the NHL. Now 24 years old, Kuznetsov is being promoted from the second line to center Ovechkin and RW T.J. Oshie. A dynamic offensive player, he's more balanced than the, typically, pass-first Backstrom, as he notched 193 SOG a year ago.
The change only applies at 5v5, however, as Backstrom centers Oshie and LW Marcus Johansson, with Ovechkin operating the point on unit No. 1. Kuznetsov returns to the second unit, where he centers Ws Andre Burakovsky and Justin Williams.
The promotion moved Kuznetsov even further up preseason rankings. Kuznetsov entered the season as FantasyPros' consensus No. 10 center, while Backstrom came in one spot below him.
Affect on Backstrom
Backstrom has long been overshadowed by the Great 8, but his production is not just a result of who his linemates have been. He assisted on both of the goals scored by Burakovsky in Washington's season-opening shootout loss to the Pittsburgh Penguins.
Backstrom still played nearly three minutes of power-play time in Game 1, ranking third on the team behind Ovechkin and D John Carlson.
The biggest positive in Backstrom's favor, albeit through just one game, he tallied five shots on goal in the season opener. It's a feat he accomplished just once last season while playing predominantly with Ovechkin. A highly skilled player in his own right, Backstrom now has to shoulder more of the offensive work while on the second line.
Backstrom should be able to return to the 200-SOG threshold. With his career shooting percentage of 11.7, it sets him up for 23 goals on an even 200 shots. It would be his highest goal total since the 2009-10 season.
While he has the opportunity to exceed those numbers with an increased role at 5v5, his assured power-play situation provides a stable floor. Over 47 percent of his points over the past three season have come with the man advantage, where he'll continue playing with Ovechkin.
Buy Backstrom before the goals start flowing in.