Imagining the 'hockey deal' it would take to work out an Ovechkin trade
Washington Capitals general manager Brian MacLellan addressed his club's future Tuesday, and, inevitably, the notion of trading superstar Alex Ovechkin was brought up on the heels of yet another second-round exit from the playoffs.
MacLellan said a trade involving his captain could possibly come to fruition down the road if a "legitimate hockey deal" materialized, but dealing Ovechkin isn't the direction the organization wants to work toward at this point.
Typically, a so-called hockey deal is a trade involving players only, a la P.K. Subban for Shea Weber.
For fun, with speculation running rampant, let's take a look at what type of trade the Capitals could orchestrate for the best player in franchise history.
The Factors
By the beginning of the 2017-18 season, Ovechkin will be 32 years old, and carrying a cap hit of $9,538,462 until 2021. He owns a modified no-trade clause, meaning Ovechkin could submit a list of 10 teams he wouldn't accept a trade to. There goes a third of the market.
History Says...
Trading Ovechkin would undoubtedly be one of the most colossal deals of all time. We're talking Wayne Gretzky big.
Of course, Gretzky was traded out of Edmonton in 1988 for two players, three first-round picks, and cash. Based on today's development-emphasized NHL, it's hard to imagine any team shelling out three first-rounders like chips at a low-stakes poker table.
In 1992, after Eric Lindros refused to play for the Quebec Nordiques, Philadelphia dealt six players (Peter Forsberg and Ron Hextall among them), two first-round picks, and cash for Lindros alone. Safe to say the league has changed.
With that in mind, some of the biggest one-for-one deals have occurred recently. Subban-for-Weber has, and will continue to, benefited Nashville more than Montreal. The other deal from that fateful summer day, Adam Larsson for Taylor Hall, ignited much debate, but the Oilers could afford to move on from their gifted winger, thanks to the Connor McDavid factor.
Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen is an example of a good deal for both teams, with franchise players exchanged to fill respective needs. However, Ovechkin is a generational talent, and hauling in a player with equal or better value is likely impossible for the Capitals.
The Comparables
How many current players are truly comparable to Ovechkin? The short answer is, well, none.
12 seasons into his career, Ovechkin's racked up 558 goals and 1,035 points in 921 games. His 0.606 goals per game rate is the sixth-highest in NHL history, and he's singlehandedly rejuvenated Washington's hockey market as the face of the organization since arriving in 2005-06.
Since 2013, Ovechkin leads all forwards in goals per 60 minutes at 1.77, and below are five players who have somewhat matched the Russian sniper's production in the same time period.
Steven Stamkos
Team: Lightning
Age: 27
G/60: 1.62
P/60: 2.81
Would a trade work?: No. Tampa Bay is as cap-restricted as any team in the league, and replacing the younger Stamkos with an older winger simply doesn't make sense.
Vladimir Tarasenko
Team: Blues
Age: 25
G/60: 1.54
P/60: 2.98
Would a trade work?: For the Capitals, yes. Tarasenko is capable of replicating Ovechkin's style of play, and at a cheaper cap hit, he'd fill the role nicely. Good luck prying him from St. Louis, though.
Max Pacioretty
Team: Canadiens
Age: 28
G/60: 1.42
P/60: 2.59
Would a trade work?: No. Ovechkin's lowest full-season goal output is 32, just seven shy of Pacioretty's career-high. Not quite an even swap.
Tyler Seguin
Team: Stars
Age: 25
G/60: 1.36
P/60: 3.14
Would a trade work?: No. Again, why would Dallas want to trade a younger, cheaper alternative?
Nikita Kucherov
Team: Lightning
Age: 23
G/60: 1.35
P/60: 2.94
Would a trade work?: No. The similarities are certainly there, but this would be a heist for the Capitals.
(All stats courtesy: stats.hockeyanalysis.com)
If Ovechkin were actually on the market, finding a "hockey deal" to fill his void, while also managing to fit the terms into both parties' salary constraints, simply isn't realistic, unless a young Mike Bossy magically appears on MacLellan's radar.
Would a team, somewhere down the road, take on Ovechkin's salary to sell tickets, say Vegas or Arizona? Maybe, but for the time being, Ovi, despite a "down" year that featured 33 goals and 36 assists, is best off in D.C.
The Verdict
Playoff failure has unfortunately become the defining narrative of Ovechkin's career, and the Capitals missed a major opportunity this season with arguably the deepest roster they've ever assembled.
Big changes are on the horizon for Washington, likely to lose several key free agents, but the sky is by no means falling in the nation's capital.
Would any hockey fan be surprised to see Ovechkin bag another 35 goals next season, maybe even 40? Probably not. His supporting cast still features the likes of Nicklas Backstrom, Evgeny Kuznetsov (a current restricted free agent), Marcus Johansson, and Braden Holtby in goal. A third consecutive Presidents' Trophy might not be in the cards, but the Capitals should remain competitive in the East.
Trading Ovechkin, the single-most iconic player the team has ever employed, for reasons beyond a non-existent market, is ludicrous. At this juncture of his career, Ovi is still the gold standard for snipers in the NHL, and getting rid of a franchise player for the sake of making a trade can cause irremediable damage among a fan base - ask Canadiens supporters.
That is, until Washington's inevitable playoff elimination at the hands of the Pittsburgh Penguins in Round 2 next season, in which case we can re-visit the inescapable topic.
(Photos Courtesy: Getty Images)