Fantasy: Strategy for drafting at the end of the round
Get ready for your season with theScore's 2017 Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
theScore's Justin Boone breaks down the best ways to approach your draft depending on where you're selecting in the order.
Draft Position
- Top of the round
- Middle of the round
- End of the round
Here's a look at how you can attack your draft if you've been assigned one of the final two picks in a 12-team standard scoring league.
Average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of FantasyPros and is based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.
Round 1
Picks: 1.11-1.12
Drafting at the end of the first round always seems like a punishment, but it can turn into a blessing since you can grab two elite players before anyone else has the chance.
Jordy Nelson and Devonta Freeman often fall into this range, and if they do, it makes for an easy decision. Since they aren't always available at the end of the round, however, let's take a player who should be - DeMarco Murray.
Murray carries more risk than Nelson or Freeman, especially after missing a large part of training camp and the preseason with a hamstring injury, combined with the presence of his eventual replacement, Derrick Henry. Those factors have held Murray's ADP in check after his 1,664-yard, 12-touchdown campaign last season, but he remains the Titans' lead back and has top-three fantasy upside if he stays healthy.
Roster | Player | Round |
---|---|---|
RB1 | DeMarco Murray | 1st |
Others to consider: Jordy Nelson, Devonta Freeman
Round 2
Picks: 2.01-2.02
Let's reiterate: Drafting any two of Nelson, Freeman, or Murray makes for an ideal start at the bottom turn. You could also loop Jay Ajayi into that mix, since his ADP can be fairly unpredictable, ranging from the mid-first to mid-second round.
Having your pick at the end of the order increases the odds of getting stuck on the wrong side of a run at a particular position. That makes it important to keep a balanced roster, which will allow you to scoop up values when the draft finally gets back to you. In the interest of staying balanced, we'll select Michael Thomas, who's coming off an outstanding rookie campaign and is continuing to impress in New Orleans. With Brandin Cooks leaving town, Thomas should see an uptick in targets, solidifying him as a WR1 in fantasy.
Roster | Player | Round |
---|---|---|
RB1 | DeMarco Murray | 1st |
WR1 | Michael Thomas | 2nd |
Others to consider: Jay Ajayi, Rob Gronkowski
Round 3
Picks: 3.11-3.12
Dalvin Cook's ADP is an unstoppable freight train at the moment, meaning you likely won't be able to get him at the end of the third round. However, there's another rookie back whose value has dropped in the preseason because he's being held behind a plodding veteran.
Joe Mixon has stood out as the most talented runner in Cincinnati, and it isn't close. He turns losses into gains while making defenders miss along the way. Yet, the Bengals' coaching staff continues to start Jeremy Hill over Mixon, a puzzling decision that should correct itself as the season goes on. Even though we might not return third-round value immediately, Mixon has league-winning potential once the Bengals unleash him.
Roster | Player | Round |
---|---|---|
RB1 | DeMarco Murray | 1st |
RB2 | Joe Mixon | 3rd |
WR1 | Michael Thomas | 2nd |
Others to consider: Spencer Ware, Michael Crabtree
Round 4
Picks: 4.01-4.02
We'll continue to keep our roster balanced by adding a wide receiver early in the fourth round.
When we last saw Keenan Allen in a regular-season game, he was dominating targets as the star of a weak receiving corps kept afloat by Philip Rivers. Allen now returns to a team with several capable pass-catching weapons - which dials back his elite fantasy upside - but he remains Rivers' top option and a strong WR2.
Roster | Player | Round |
---|---|---|
RB1 | DeMarco Murray | 1st |
RB2 | Joe Mixon | 3rd |
WR1 | Michael Thomas | 2nd |
WR2 | Keenan Allen | 4th |
Others to consider: Davante Adams, Alshon Jeffery
Round 5
Picks: 5.11-5.12
Knowing when to draft a player before his age caches up with him is a valuable skill in fantasy, but owners are often too quick to write off older stars. Larry Fitzgerald is the perfect example of this, as he's put up back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons despite being drafted in the middle rounds.
Head coach Bruce Arians openly chastised the Cardinals' receiving corps over the last couple weeks, saying the team only has two real NFL receivers. While that's not great news for Arizona's Super Bowl hopes, it does bode well for Fitzgerald, who should continue to see plenty of work as a 34-year-old this season.
Roster | Player | Round |
---|---|---|
RB1 | DeMarco Murray | 1st |
RB2 | Joe Mixon | 3rd |
WR1 | Michael Thomas | 2nd |
WR2 | Keenan Allen | 4th |
WR3 | Larry Fitzgerald | 5th |
Others to consider: Golden Tate, Ameer Abdullah
Round 6
Picks: 6.01-6.02
With no intriguing options at any other position, let's take a receiver primed for a breakout campaign.
Stefon Diggs hauled in 84 passes for 903 yards and three touchdowns while appearing 13 games last year. Diggs plays right into Sam Bradford's wheelhouse as a short-to-intermediate receiver who can make plays after the catch. A healthy Diggs could join the 100-reception club in 2017.
Roster | Player | Round |
---|---|---|
RB1 | DeMarco Murray | 1st |
RB2 | Joe Mixon | 3rd |
WR1 | Michael Thomas | 2nd |
WR2 | Keenan Allen | 4th |
WR3 | Larry Fitzgerald | 5th |
Bench | Stefon Diggs | 6th |
Others to consider: Emmanuel Sanders, Doug Martin
Round 7
Picks: 7.11-7.12
Normally I would wait a little longer on a quarterback, but there's a small window of potential value around the eighth or ninth rounds if players like Jameis Winston, Kirk Cousins, Marcus Mariota, or Andrew Luck are still on the board.
Luck is the most interesting option, as his price tag is reduced due to the possibility of him missing a couple games to start of the year. Taking Luck and pairing him with a streaming option like Carson Palmer is a savvy move.
Since Luck doesn't always reach the 7-8 turn, we'll gladly take Kirk Cousins, who finished with the fifth-most fantasy points among quarterbacks in 2016. The Redskins did a good job of restocking their receiving corps in the offseason, which should lead to another top-10 season for Cousins.
Roster | Player | Round |
---|---|---|
QB1 | Kirk Cousins | 7th |
RB1 | DeMarco Murray | 1st |
RB2 | Joe Mixon | 3rd |
WR1 | Michael Thomas | 2nd |
WR2 | Keenan Allen | 4th |
WR3 | Larry Fitzgerald | 5th |
Bench | Stefon Diggs | 6th |
Others to consider: Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota
Round 8
Picks: 8.01-8.02
We round out our starting lineup with one of the best value tight ends in this year's drafts.
Martellus Bennett gives Aaron Rodgers a new weapon at a position the Packers have been lacking at for years. The duo has shown their red-zone chemistry already in the preseason, and it's not crazy to think Bennett could challenge for double-digit touchdowns in this offense.
Roster | Player | Round |
---|---|---|
QB1 | Kirk Cousins | 7th |
RB1 | DeMarco Murray | 1st |
RB2 | Joe Mixon | 3rd |
WR1 | Michael Thomas | 2nd |
WR2 | Keenan Allen | 4th |
WR3 | Larry Fitzgerald | 5th |
TE1 | Martellus Bennett | 8th |
Bench | Stefon Diggs | 6th |
Others to consider: Kyle Rudolph, Rob Kelley, DeSean Jackson
Round 9
Picks: 9.11-9.12
We've left ourselves thin at running back, so the rest of our bench should be dedicated to adding depth at the position.
Thomas Rawls is expected to be the Seahawks' starter if he can stay healthy, but can be had for next to nothing in drafts due to uncertainty in Seattle's backfield. Rawls has performed best out of the team's current crop of rushers and deserves to get the call in Week 1.
Roster | Player | Round |
---|---|---|
QB1 | Kirk Cousins | 7th |
RB1 | DeMarco Murray | 1st |
RB2 | Joe Mixon | 3rd |
WR1 | Michael Thomas | 2nd |
WR2 | Keenan Allen | 4th |
WR3 | Larry Fitzgerald | 5th |
TE1 | Martellus Bennett | 8th |
Bench | Stefon Diggs | 6th |
Bench | Thomas Rawls | 9th |
Others to consider: Darren McFadden, Jacquizz Rodgers
Round 10
Picks: 10.01-10.02
Ty Montgomery's health issues have sidelined him for part of camp, and there should be legitimate concerns about his ability to stay on the field and lead the Packers' rushing attack.
Jamaal Williams hasn't exactly stolen the job with his play in the preseason, but he's a better blocker and can give Green Bay a steady hand at the position. You don't often get to draft players who might be Week 1 starters this late, so coming away with Rawls and Williams is a great use of late-round picks.
Roster | Player | Round |
---|---|---|
QB1 | Kirk Cousins | 7th |
RB1 | DeMarco Murray | 1st |
RB2 | Joe Mixon | 3rd |
WR1 | Michael Thomas | 2nd |
WR2 | Keenan Allen | 4th |
WR3 | Larry Fitzgerald | 5th |
TE1 | Martellus Bennett | 8th |
Bench | Stefon Diggs | 6th |
Bench | Thomas Rawls | 9th |
Bench | Jamaal Williams | 10th |
Others to consider: Duke Johnson, Rex Burkhead
Later rounds
After the 10th round, you no longer need to pay close attention to ADPs. You should instead focus on filling out your bench with as many high-upside players as possible, targeting running backs and receivers. Quarterbacks and tight ends can always be streamed, or at worst, acquired by trading a bench player.
Players to consider: DeAndre Washington, Jonathan Williams, Shane Vereen, Alvin Kamara, Devontae Booker, D'Onta Foreman