Why Ohtani is a perfect fit for the Cubs
In this four-part series, theScore's MLB editors look at some of the front-runners for Japanese superstar Shohei Ohtani, and project how he'd fit within their prospective rosters.
In the first season of "Game of Thrones," with his legacy suddenly at stake, Tywin Lannister, the patriarch of perhaps Westeros' most infamous family, delivers this rousing, pithy truth to his eldest son, Jaime:
The future of our family will be determined in these next few months. We could establish a dynasty that would last a thousand years ... or we could collapse into nothing.
If you can find a literary reference that better encapsulates the Chicago Cubs' current situation, well, kudos to you.
After finally capturing that elusive World Series title in 2016, snapping a century-plus run of futility, the Cubs faltered last season, stumbling through an ugly first half before turning it on following the All-Star break only to be ousted in the National League Championship Series by a demonstrably superior team. It was a crushing blow to their supposed dynasty, and offered some sobering insight into who really holds the seat of power in National League.
Now, however, with Ohtani on the market, the Cubs are very much in a position to establish a dynasty that would last, if not a thousand years, then at least the length of the Los Angeles Dodgers' current competitive window. They'll be good enough for the foreseeable future without him, of course, but good enough may not be good enough in the face of an Ohtani-led dynasty in Los Angeles or New York. Without him, as good as they are, the Cubs' dynasty may never be realized. Without him, the Cubs may well collapse into nothing.
Their rotation needs help
After leading the majors in both ERA and WHIP in 2016, the Cubs' starting corps took a significant step backward last year due to, among other things, Jon Lester's newfound home-run woes and Kyle Hendricks' finicky right hand. That doesn't necessarily portend continued decline for those two in 2018, of course, but the Cubs are still poised to lose Jake Arrieta and John Lackey to free agency, leaving Mike Montgomery and Eddie Butler to round out the back of the rotation. For a team with World Series aspirations, that won't work, and Ohtani's potential for surplus value - an important factor given the not-insignificant raises some of the Cubs' core players (e.g. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Addison Russell) are due very soon - makes him the ideal target for a team expected to be competitive for the near future, as well.
Though an ankle injury limited him to just a handful of starts in 2017, Ohtani didn't disappoint when he took the mound, managing a 3.20 ERA with insane peripherals - he racked up 29 strikeouts and allowed just two home runs over 25 1/3 innings - in limited action. Amazingly, those were his worst numbers by a considerable margin since his rookie campaign in 2013, as the 6-foot-3 right-hander - who wields three plus pitches, including a four-seamer that touches 102 miles per hour - authored a 2.25 ERA and 30.4 percent strikeout rate from 2014 through 2016. Any team could use an pitcher of that caliber, obviously, but Ohtani would be especially valuable to a team hungry for every possible marginal win - home-field advantage in the World Series is based on record now, after all - as well as the most formidable postseason rotation.
Potential 2018 rotation
Player | 2017 WAR | ERA | WHIP | K/BB |
---|---|---|---|---|
Jon Lester | 2.7 | 4.33 | 1.32 | 3.00 |
Shohei Ohtani* | - | 3.20 | 1.26 | 1.53 |
Jose Quintana | 3.9 | 4.15 | 1.22 | 3.39 |
Kyle Hendricks | 2.5 | 3.03 | 1.19 | 3.08 |
Mike Montgomery | 1.3 | 3.38 | 1.21 | 1.82 |
*In five starts (25 1/3 IP) with Nippon Ham
He rakes and creates lots of interesting opportunities
Finding Ohtani at-bats (when he doesn't start, obviously) is a little bit trickier in the National League. With the lineup as currently constituted, Ohtani, who boasts a .973 OPS with 30 homers over his last 169 games in Japan, could serve as a fourth outfielder in Chicago, regularly pinch-hitting and even starting in left or right field against the occasional right-hander (with Jason Heyward moving into center field and Albert Almora taking a seat).
Potential 2018 lineup
Player | POS | 2017 OPS |
---|---|---|
Shohei Ohtani* | RF | .942 |
Kris Bryant | 3B | .946 |
Anthony Rizzo | 1B | .899 |
Kyle Schwarber | LF | .782 |
Willson Contreras | C | .855 |
Javier Baez | 2B | .796 |
Addison Russell | SS | .722 |
Jason Heyward | CF | .715 |
What's really appealing about the idea of using Ohtani regularly in the outfield, however, is all the trade possibilities it creates. If Ohtani proves capable of pitching every five days and playing the outfield between starts, the Cubs could fill in any remaining cracks on their roster by trading one of their now-superfluous outfielders. They could, for instance, move Kyle Schwarber, the catcher-turned-outfielder who blasted 30 homers last year and won't hit free agency until after the 2021 season. Alternatively, they could trade Almora, the defensively gifted center fielder who hit .298/.338/.445 as a rookie in 2017. Hell, if they were willing to eat most of the money left on his $184-million contract, the Cubs could even try to get Heyward off their hands.
*In 231 plate appearances with Nippon Ham
Bright present and future on the North Side
Last year, despite finishing with their worst record (92-70) since 2014, the Cubs captured a second straight National League Central title, with six games separating them and the second-place Milwaukee Brewers. Without question, the Cubs are the best team in the division right now, even though shrewd drafting and fiscal restraint in recent years have positioned the Brewers to return to relevance, while the St. Louis Cardinals - once the presumptive NL Central champion - are poised to make some drastic moves this winter after missing the postseason in consecutive seasons. Still, for the next little while, the road to the World Series goes through Los Angeles, and adding Ohtani wouldn't fortify the Cubs' current group of young stars, but also prevent the Dodgers from adding him. That alone is a legitimate reason to sign Ohtani.
Moreover, in his decision to be posted this winter instead of waiting two more years to become a free agent, in earnest, Ohtani has made it clear that money is largely immaterial to him. This augurs well for the Cubs, who can only offer him a pittance of what the New York Yankees or Texas Rangers can. On account of spending excesses in previous international signing periods, the Cubs can't offer Ohtani a signing bonus greater than $300,000. It doesn't look like that matters to him, though. By Christmas, we'll know for sure.
Check out the previous installments in this series:
(Photos courtesy: Action Images)
HEADLINES
- Key takeaways and analysis from Week 12 in the NFL
- NFL Playoff Picture - Week 12: Postseason seeds, projected draft order
- Saquon rushes for 255 yards, sets Eagles record in win over Rams
- Packers' Nixon dismisses 49ers' injury excuse: 'They should've came to play'
- Nylander brothers relish 'special' opportunity to play together