Why the Stars are finally playing up to their potential
The Dallas Stars had been showing signs of improvement since undergoing a major offseason overhaul, but after a decent yet unspectacular start, they're really clicking now.
Dallas has reeled off four wins in its last five games and eight in its last 11, including a 4-2 victory over the Detroit Red Wings on Tuesday. The team now sits in the first Western Conference wild-card spot, but it's not just Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn doing the heavy lifting.
After missing the playoffs a season ago, there are several factors that can explain why Dallas is finally putting the pieces together:
Defense
The biggest reason for the Stars' improvement isn't one of their marquee mainstays or free-agent acquisitions, but rather head coach Ken Hitchcock, who was brought back into the organization to replace the fired Lindy Ruff last spring.
Hitchcock's defensive emphasis has noticeably improved the club through 46 games, and has been evident on even the most basic levels:
| Season | Goals Allowed/Game | Penalty Killing Percentage |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 (League Rank) | 3.17 (29th) | 73.9 (30th) |
| 2017-18 (League Rank) | 2.72 (11th) | 81.5 (15th) |
The Stars are surrendering fewer shots on goal per contest, even as the rate across the entire league has risen:
| Season | Shots Against/Game | League Average |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 29.58 | 30.09 |
| 2017-18 | 29.35 | 31.67 |
Most importantly, they're limiting opposing scoring chances better than any other team after being one of the worst at doing so last season:
| Season | Scoring Chances Against/60 | League Rank |
|---|---|---|
| 2016-17 | 29.2 | 28th |
| 2017-18 | 25.71 | 1st |
That's a stunning transformation, and the Stars' ability to limit opposing shots and scoring chances should continue, as the club ranks fifth in the NHL in expected goals against (73.17) at even strength.
The Stars' goaltending has obviously improved too, with Ben Bishop posting a solid .916 save percentage across 36 appearances and providing some much-needed stability in the Dallas crease after last season's Antti Niemi/Kari Lehtonen disaster.
Lehtonen's also played better, with a .910 save percentage in 14 games, compared to last year's forgettable .902 mark.
Klingberg's development
John Klingberg had a mild setback by his standards in 2016-17, even though it was ultimately a productive campaign, but he's now taken his game to a completely different level.
Dallas' franchise defenseman followed up a 58-point season in 2015-16 with a 49-point effort last year, but he's piling up nearly a point per game (43 in 46 contests) so far in 2017-18, leading all NHL defensemen in assists and points while not getting much recognition for it.
Klingberg is driving possession at an even-strength Corsi For percentage of 53.66, compared to his 49.7 mark from 2016-17. That ranks him second best among Stars' skaters this season, compared to a mere 19th last year.
Considering how much better his team is playing on the defensive end and how well he's performing offensively, few are questioning Klingberg's defensive abilities, but they haven't actually been cause for much concern. In fact, his expected goals against compares favorably to some similar players.
From @CorsicaHockey As much as Klingberg gets credit for his offense, his xGA are lower than most all of his contemporaries pic.twitter.com/Vt1Ymjrbzb
— Josh Lile (@JoshL1220) January 17, 2018
Klingberg should certainly be in the Norris Trophy conversation if he continues to produce at or near this level, and even if he regresses, his development is a major reason why the Stars have made a leap themselves.
Radulov and that fearsome top line
Benn and Seguin are always going to be among the league's best at generating offense, but the addition of Alexander Radulov and the insertion of the ever-animated winger on Dallas' top forward unit has created a truly formidable trio.
Some questioned Stars general manager Jim Nill for signing the 30-year-old Radulov to a five-year deal last July, but it's paying off in spades right now, particularly since Hitchcock put Radulov alongside Dallas' two most explosive scorers.
The Russian forward has 17 goals and 42 points in 46 games, and he's helped bolster both Seguin's and Benn's production. Seguin's 0.48 goals per game so far would be a 50 percent improvement over last season, while Benn's goal and point averages are also up from 2016-17.
Dallas has possessed a potent double-pronged offensive attack for years, but Radulov has made it even better, and he's been a huge reason for the club's success so far this season.
(Photos courtesy Getty Images, statistics courtesy Corsica Hockey, Hockey Reference, and Natural Stat Trick)