Making sense of the shocking, strange Blake Griffin trade
The Los Angeles Clippers and Detroit Pistons pulled the trigger on the season's first blockbuster trade on Monday ... and it's a strange one.
The Clippers are sending franchise player Blake Griffin along with Brice Johnson and Willie Reed to the Pistons in exchange for Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, Boban Marjanovic, and first- and second-round draft picks. There's a lot to unpack about the motivations for each team and the impact it might have on them.
With that in mind, here are some takeaways from the trade, as it pertains to both sides.
Clippers
It's tough to get a read on the Clippers' motivation here. At first blush, it looked like a move from a team preparing for a tear-down, especially considering the impending free agency of DeAndre Jordan. But management reportedly wants to remain competitive, and has no interest in bottoming out. So, what exactly is the plan here?
Why it makes sense
If nothing else, this gives the Clippers more options.
For one thing, it's not crazy to try taking a different roster-building tack, prioritizing depth and lineup balance over the stars-and-scrubs approach they've employed for most of this decade (with Griffin's recurring injury issues making that an even dicier proposition in the post-Chris Paul era).
Griffin and Jordan have never been a perfect frontcourt fit, and effectively swapping in Harris - a 40.9 percent 3-point shooter who can credibly play the four - could unclog their offense some, even if it represents a significant downgrade in playmaking. Bradley's had a tough year, but he can shoot the three and defend at the point of attack, two skills the Clippers have sorely lacked since Patrick Beverley went down. Marjanovic is a perfectly serviceable backup center.
It also makes the Clippers way more malleable moving forward. For a team facing as much uncertainty as Los Angeles will this coming summer, wanting to be rid of the four years and $143 million still owed to Griffin is totally understandable. The Clippers' leverage and his trade value were only going to diminish, and the team can now pivot in a number of different directions. They pick up a potential lottery pick, and could grab more assets in the lead-up to the trade deadline, as they'll reportedly hunt deals for Jordan and Lou Williams. There is a path for them to remain reasonably competitive in the present while also collecting young talent that sets them up for the future. And if LeBron James' or Paul George's affinity for Los Angeles is legit but they decide the Lakers are too far away, well, the Clippers can now carve out max cap space.
Why it doesn't make sense
Players like Griffin don't come around often, and it could be a long time before the Clippers have anyone of his ilk again. Aside from the draft pick that likely lands in the late lottery as a best-case scenario, they didn't acquire a single long-term, cost-controllable piece in return. Bradley could be gone after this season, and Harris could be gone a year after that. If they can't get a good return for Jordan and/or Williams, or lose them for nothing in free agency, then what do they have?
In Griffin, they had a bankable star who could be built around. They may have set themselves up to have a ton of cap space, but if Jordan, Williams, and Bradley are all gone, are they really going to be able to use that space on players who would qualify as upgrades? LeBron isn't signing with a team whose best player is Harris.
Ultimately, this feels like a move that lowers the Clippers' ceiling, and only really raises their floor in the here and now. Two years from now, it could look like a trade that destroyed the foundation of the house without leaving much material to rebuild it. That's to say nothing of the optics of trading a guy six months after selling him on a vision of being a "lifelong Clipper."
Pistons
The Pistons get the starry name in the deal, but that doesn't mean they aren't taking on their share of downside risk. This is probably a bigger gamble for them than it is the Clippers. Is it worth it?
Why it makes sense
In Griffin, the Pistons get the best player they've had this decade, and the closest thing they've had to superstar since, what, Grant Hill? Even setting aside Griffin's talent, for a mid-market team that's struggling to draw fans to a new arena and hasn't been relevant since the aughts, having someone with his cache matters.
Griffin should also give Detroit's 21st-ranked offense a much-needed shot in the arm. He can function as a point forward, and his scoring and playmaking abilities will be a welcome addition for a team that's been a disaster since Reggie Jackson got injured. Andre Drummond's improved passing has allowed the Pistons to run some of their sets through him at the elbow, but Griffin, who passes better than Drummond and can actually shoot and put the ball on the floor, will be far more effective as an offensive fulcrum, whether it's from the top or from the post. The two of them should be able to work some deadly dual-big-man stuff, from high-low feeds to four-five pick-and-rolls. Griffin had gotten pretty adept at tossing lobs to Jordan, and that skill should translate nicely to his partnership with Drummond. They'll be one of the best rebounding frontcourts in the league, too. And when Jackson returns, he and Griffin could form an effective pick-and-pop tandem.
The Pistons' depth takes a hit, but given their cap situation, their paucity of young assets, their market, and their perpetual place in the middle of the draft, a trade like this was the only real means they had of acquiring a player in Griffin's stratum. Their cap sheet won't look prettier in the near term, but they at least have the security of having Griffin and Drummond locked up for three years after this one (steep as the cost may be). Detroit may have too much ground to make up to reach the playoffs this season, but this is a long-term move and the team should be firmly in the mix in the years to come.
Why it doesn't make sense
Without Harris' and Bradley's shooting, the Pistons are going to have a whale of a time trying to create space. Griffin has been shooting the three more frequently this season, but at 34 percent, he's not exactly terrifying defenses from out there. There's going to be a ton of pressure on him and Drummond to create in tight quarters. There's going to be even more pressure on rookie Luke Kennard, who is suddenly the team's best wing. Seriously, a 21-year-old averaging less than seven points a game and still learning NBA defense is now the Pistons' best wing.
What if Griffin's injuries remain a recurring issue? What if he and Drummond don't jive? The Pistons could find themselves carrying an ineffective, preposterously expensive frontcourt with no way to get out of those contracts until 2021 and without a draft pick this year, affording them few means of filling out a woefully thin roster around them. All this, for what? A chance to maybe be a top-five seed in the East if everything breaks right and everyone stays healthy? Bleh.
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