Kawhi Leonard's discontent could spell end of Spurs' dynasty

The silence around Kawhi Leonard's mysterious absence speaks to the sheer amount of equity the San Antonio Spurs have earned over the last two decades.

San Antonio gets a pass since it's hailed as the model franchise. It's earned respect from 18 straight 50-win seasons that includes five championships. It's earned trust because its leaders in Tim Duncan, R.C. Buford, and Gregg Popovich champion the right causes.

Make no mistake: If the Leonard saga happened anywhere else, you wouldn't hear the end of it. It would be like the circus around Markelle Fultz, only amplified tenfold since Leonard could change the landscape of an entire conference. Here is a top-three MVP candidate that is openly feuding with his franchise, to the point where he might sit out the remainder of the season.

The Spurs deserve the benefit of the doubt, but the Leonard situation can no longer be ignored. Leonard's injury would effectively end the Spurs' season, and his discontent could end of two decades of dominance.

What do we know?

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The initial prognosis was that he would miss preseason with a quad injury, but that has carried over into a full-blown fiasco in which Leonard has decided to sit out the remainder of the season despite gaining medical clearance from team doctors.

It was announced in September that Leonard needed rehab on his right quad, and that his timeline would be "determined at a later date." Then it was radio silence for weeks, save for an ominous video that showed Leonard limping as he climbed onto a plane. It was assumed that Leonard would be fine, since the Spurs are the Spurs.

Then came the ominous warnings from Popovich. In early-November, Popovich warned fans that Leonard's recovery was going slower than that of Tony Parker, which was a warning sign in retrospect given that the Frenchman is a decade older. In late-November, Pop said he's "never" seen anything like Leonard's injury, but still there was hope.

Leonard finally returned on Dec. 12 but he looked nothing like himself as the Spurs lost to the lowly Dallas Mavericks. He was held to a minutes limit, and played every other game for about a month. The Spurs also uncharacteristically lost four of the nine games he appeared in.

Something was clearly amiss, but again it was ignored. Leonard floated in and out of the lineup, and at one point suffered a partially torn shoulder, yet he played a week later on Jan. 13 and nothing more was said about this injury. A few days later, the team announced that Leonard was "out indefinitely" for more rehab on his quad.

Buford admitted that Leonard was "frustrated as hell," which opened the door to a bombshell report from two of the league's most reputable reporters in Zach Lowe and Adrian Wojnarowski along with Spurs beat reporter Michael C. Wright of ESPN. They described Leonard as "distant" and "disconnected" from the organization, although both the team and Leonard's camp were eager to deny it publicly.

Except, those denials eventually rang hollow. Wojnarowski followed up on Wednesday by reporting that Leonard has medical clearance from team doctors, but he wants a second opinion and is willing to sit out the season. Wojnarowski adds that there is no longer a strong relationship between the two sides, and that the organization feels "palpable stress" over the ordeal.

The two sides clearly don't see eye-to-eye, and given that it's already past the All-Star break, a resolution won't come in time to save the Spurs' season. But that's not nearly the worst of it.

What's next?

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Despite the prolonged absence of their best player, the Spurs still sit third in the ever-competitive West. That's hardly a crisis.

Except, there's not much on the roster beyond Popovich's wizardry. LaMarcus Aldridge is having a strong season, but he's got no help. Two wholly average pieces in Patty Mills and Kyle Anderson are second and third in minutes played. A borderline immobile 37-year-old Pau Gasol is fourth, a past-his-prime Danny Green ranks fifth, and in sixth sits a classic Spurs salvage job in Bryn Forbes who spent half of last season in the G League.

This team gets by in the regular season since Popovich is so meticulous and innovative in his training. But there is no hope in the playoffs without elite talent, and the Spurs will fall well short of challenging the reloaded Rockets or the unstoppable Warriors if Leonard is wearing street clothes.

The bigger issue is the Spurs' long-term outlook. Leonard was billed as their bridge to the future, but if he's distant from the team, then the whole thing could come crashing down.

Leonard can hit unrestricted free agency in 2019. If these bad feelings linger, the Spurs might have to face the difficult prospect of trading him lest they risk him walking for nothing. They would presumably sit down with him first to get back on the same page, but that should have already happened by now.

Even without the injury, it's not a given that Leonard would stay. A soon-to-be 33-year-old Aldridge isn't much of an attraction, especially since he struggled to co-exist with Leonard last season. The last decade of free agency points towards superstars wanting to play together, and the Spurs have nobody to pair with Leonard.

For the first time in forever, the Spurs don't have the next great talent lined up. Dejounte Murray shows flashes, but his jumper has been off all season and he's still playing less than 20 minutes a night. Anderson is more of a premium bench piece than a bankable star. Derrick White is a completely unknown.

The Spurs will have a wealth of cap room in the summer of 2019 and they could conceivably add another star to convince Leonard to stay. Recruiting one of Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, or Kevin Love could change the equation.

But any top free agent looking to sign with the Spurs would want an assurance that Popovich will be their coach, and that's where it gets tricky. Pop will be 70 in January, and he's already got his next gig lined up with Team USA. Would Pop extend himself once again to save the Spurs? Would it even be fair to ask more of Pop after all these years?

Popovich has already given thousands of wins and five championships to the organization. He's earned the right to walk away and pass the torch. But if Leonard isn't the one to carry it forward, then who will?