Western arms race: Who's better, the Predators or Jets?
With all due respect to the surprising Vegas Golden Knights, the Western Conference appears set to come down to the defending champion Nashville Predators and the upstart Winnipeg Jets.
Both teams made additions prior to Monday's trade deadline, loading up for what seems like an inevitable second-round playoff meeting between the Central Division powerhouses.
Which club has the advantage? Here's how it breaks down position by position:
Forwards
Jets' Lines | ||
---|---|---|
Kyle Connor | Mark Scheifele | Blake Wheeler |
Nikolaj Ehlers | Paul Stastny | Patrik Laine |
Mathieu Perreault | Brian Little | Jack Roslovic |
Andrew Copp | Matt Hendricks | Joel Armia |
*Adam Lowry | Brandon Tanev |
Predators' Lines | ||
---|---|---|
Filip Forsberg | Ryan Johansen | Viktor Arvidsson |
Kevin Fiala | Kyle Turris | Craig Smith |
Scott Hartnell | Nick Bonino | Ryan Hartman |
Calle Jarnkrok | Colton Sissons | Austin Watson |
*Mike Fisher | Eeli Tolvanen |
*Top seven based on average ice time
(Lines courtesy: Daily Faceoff)
The Jets made a huge splash Monday by acquiring center Stastny from the St. Louis Blues, arguably giving Winnipeg the NHL's best top nine.
Winnipeg has already scored 206 goals through 62 games - fourth-most in the NHL. As we'll see below, that's come with minimal aid from the blue line, and the addition of Stastny will only help them get the puck to the opposition's net with greater regularity.
Nashville addressed an area of weakness from last year's roster by adding depth down the middle in the form of Turris and Bonino, and Fisher is back in the mix as added insurance.
Hartman was brought in via Chicago on deadline day for added scoring, with the Predators having recorded a ninth-ranked 191 goals through 61 games, but with a good chunk coming from the defense.
The highly touted prospect Tolvanen may be an X-factor if he signs his entry-level deal for the balance of the season, but, as it stands, the Jets are stronger up front.
Defense
Jets | Predators |
---|---|
Dustin Byfuglien | Roman Josi |
Jacob Trouba | P.K. Subban |
Tyler Myers | Mattias Ekholm |
Josh Morrissey | Ryan Ellis |
Toby Enstrom | Alexei Emelin |
Dmitry Kulikov | Matt Irwin |
Ben Chiarot | Yannick Weber |
Nashville's defense corps is widely regarded as the best around the NHL, and for good reason.
The Predators are allowing a league-low 2.46 goals per game this season, and everyone but Emelin and Weber boasts a positive Corsi rating at even strength, indicating good puck movement and an ability to keep it away from Rinne.
The Jets, however, aren't far behind. Winnipeg is allowing only 2.61 goals per game (fifth-lowest), as well as one shot per game less than Nashville (31.4 as compared to 32.4).
On top of that, their top six all boast positive Corsi ratings at even strength, and seventh man Chiarot is almost level.
Offensively, however, Nashville gets a big boost thanks to 15 goals from Subban and 10 from Josi. Here are the respective contributions from each team:
- Predators: 42 goals, 107 assists, 37 power-play points
- Jets: 22 goals, 108 assists, 52 power-play points
Altogether, based on excellence at both ends of the ice, Nashville gets the edge on defense.
Goaltending
Jets | Predators |
---|---|
Connor Hellebuyck | Pekka Rinne |
Michael Hutchinson | Juuse Saros |
Rinne played some of the best hockey of his life in backstopping the Predators to the Stanley Cup Final last year, posting a .930 save percentage over 22 games. So far this season, he hasn't tailed off, with a 32-9-4 record and .929 save percentage.
Hellebuyck has an almost identical record (32-9-8) with a slightly lower save percentage (.924), and while he's living up to the billing of one of the game's best young goalies, he brings zero NHL postseason experience to the table.
The Jets may have the better long-term option, but based on the current levels of play, Rinne's run a year ago, and the defense immediately in front of him, the edge in net right now goes to Nashville.
Conclusion
Winnipeg's forward group is as deep and talented as it gets, but Nashville gets the edge on defense and in net, thereby setting the Predators up for the best chance of representing the West once again in the final.
The Jets deserve a lot of credit. They do have a young goalie they're confident in, but they know Nashville has the best defense, so coming out of nowhere and acquiring Stastny is a move they needed to make, especially after missing out on Derick Brassard.
If these teams do indeed meet in the playoffs, bank on the series going the distance.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)