UFC Glendale predictions: Will Gaethje bounce back at surging Poirier's expense?

Prior to Saturday's UFC on FOX 29 in Glendale, Arizona, theScore's Themistoklis Alexis makes his picks for the evening's noteworthy bouts.

Main Card

Lightweight

Dustin Poirier (14-4 UFC, 22-5)
vs.
Justin Gaethje (1-1 UFC, 18-1)

Poirier's finesse can get Gaethje into the later rounds, but it won't get his hand raised.

In what many are hoping will prove a festival of facepunching (to quote John Gooden), the fan favorite's chin may not agree to a firefight with the ex-WSOF champ, and he'll have a rough time getting a wrestler of Gaethje's caliber to the canvas should he opt to take the submission route. Poirier can follow Eddie Alvarez's blueprint and score points with an active jab and body work, but Gaethje's thunderous leg kicks will ultimately be the difference, their cumulative damage stifling Poirier's movement and setting up a late-round TKO.

THE PICK: Gaethje

Welterweight

Carlos Condit (7-7 UFC, 30-11)
vs.
Alex Oliveira (7-3 UFC, 17-5-1)

Oliveira won't show Condit a fraction of the respect Neil Magny did.

Facing the former interim champ on short notice is no small ask, but Oliveira poses a greater threat to Condit than a battle-worn Matt Brown. We shouldn't slap the "washed" label on Condit just yet, but it's not crazy to think his mettle took an irreparable hit in his five-round war with Robbie Lawler, and Oliveira boasts the funky movement and sneaky punching power to diminish it further.

"Cowboy" by TKO.

THE PICK: Oliveira

Middleweight

Israel Adesanya (1-0 UFC, 12-0)
vs.
Marvin Vettori (2-1-1 UFC, 12-3-1)

What happens when "The Italian Dream" meets "The Last Stylebender"?

Vettori is game to throw down, but victory over an absurdly proficient and creative striker in Adesanya goes through the mat, where he's picked up eight of his dozen pro wins. Adesanya's takedown defense held up in his February promotional debut, and Vettori isn't a polished enough wrestler to keep him pinned to the canvas. Expect Adesanya's resistance to the takedown to sap a marble-carved Vettori's gas tank before he picks him apart in another flamboyant display of first-rate kickboxing.

THE PICK: Adesanya

Strawweight

Michelle Waterson (2-2 UFC, 14-6)
vs.
Cortney Casey (3-4 UFC, 7-5)

Don't let the modest record fool you. There's a reason Casey's the betting favorite.

She might be the matchup's lesser-known property, but Casey boasts the goods to exploit Waterson's two most significant flaws. The comparatively diminutive Waterson will have a rough go of getting Casey to the canvas with her repertoire of throws, and she's not one to win rounds with a high striking output. As long as Casey can keep it standing, she'll stay busier than her foe on the feet to get back in the win column on points.

THE PICK: Casey

Preliminaries

Middleweight

Tim Boetsch (12-10 UFC, 21-11)
vs.
Antonio Carlos Junior (6-2 UFC, 9-2)

If Carlos Junior wants to make it five in a row, he should waste no time getting Boetsch to the mat.

The 37-year-old Boetsch's granite right hand can put many a man to sleep, but he hasn't fared well against elite jiu-jitsu players - a bill Carlos Junior fits. Provided the pair make it to the mat, it won't be a matter of if, but when the Brazilian puts the squeeze on Boetsch's neck for another tapout.

THE PICK: Carlos Junior

Flyweight

Wilson Reis (6-4 UFC, 22-8)
vs.
John Moraga (7-5 UFC, 18-6)

In a battle of former title challengers, the superior Brazilian jiu-jitsu practitioner will get his hand raised.

Moraga flashed improved striking in his abrupt derailing of the Magomed Bibulatov hype train, meaning Reis would be wise to get back to what he does best: pursue the takedown and make it a grappling match. The 34-year-old Moraga is no slouch on the mat, but he'll soon learn Reis is a different caliber of grappler.

Reis by tapout.

THE PICK: Reis

Middleweight

Krzysztof Jotko (6-3 UFC, 19-3)
vs.
Brad Tavares (11-4 UFC, 16-4)

Tavares made volume the name of his game in his October victory over Thales Leites, and he'd be wise to replicate that strategy Saturday.

Tasked with a crafty counterstriker and decent takedown artist in Jotko, Tavares should keep the Pole honest with a steady stream of jabs and calf kicks. If his defensive wrestling holds up and Jotko strikes at a typically low rate yet again, the Hawaiian's output should net him a fourth straight W on points.

THE PICK: Tavares