1st-round loss would be massive failure for Thunder ahead of big summer
For almost a decade, the Oklahoma City Thunder have been the NBA's little market that could. While the franchise only has one Finals appearance to show for it, the team that has rolled with the punches of league economics: Trade James Harden, get Steven Adams. Lose Kevin Durant, deal for Paul George.
The Thunder have averaged 52 wins per season since 2009-10, second only in that time to the San Antonio Spurs.
There was a sense heading into this season, however, that this year would be a huge one for OKC. When general manager Sam Presti swung the blockbuster trade for George last June and added Carmelo Anthony in September, they were all-in moves. While the Finals weren't considered a shoo-in, what certainly wouldn't have been considered acceptable at the start of the campaign was a first-round playoff exit.
Yet, that's the possibility the Thunder are faced with ahead of Friday's Game 6 on the road against the Utah Jazz.
To be fair, the Thunder haven't turned capabilities into consistent winning all year. They only finished two games above ninth in the West and didn't clinch a playoff berth until after the next-to-last game of the regular season.
While George has been stellar from the start, Anthony never properly adjusted to a tertiary role. He spent most of the Thunder's furious second-half comeback in Wednesday's Game 5 glued to the bench. With 2:30 left in the game and OKC hanging on to a five-point lead, head coach Billy Donovan opted to pull Melo in favor of Jerami Grant.
Melo was always going to be the wild card of the Thunder's Big Three, but his production this season - and going forward - is problematic compared to his contract. But the bigger question remains George, who can become an unrestricted free agent at season's end.
Despite concerns, he and Russell Westbrook gelled in a satisfactory manner this season. Nowhere was that more evident than in Game 5, when the pair combined for 79 points. George has had the best year of his career defensively in OKC, and he's so far said all the right things about the possibility of returning.
The question is, will he? His hometown of Los Angeles very likely beckons in free agency, and Westbrook himself presents an intriguing riddle.
Russ' stubborn, whirling-dervish style of play is the sort of thing that can wear on teammates over time. He's a reactive basketball player, not one predisposed to a team-oriented style. That his explosive, 45-point performance in Game 5 extended the Thunder's season was partly a byproduct of the fact he played poorly in the series' first four games.
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Westbrook signed his supermax extension with the Thunder before the season, locking him in with the only franchise he's ever played for until 2023. That deal is the centerpiece of Presti's desire to ink George long term, but keeping PG-13 would come at an exorbitant cost.
It's estimated that re-signing George would put the Thunder at $150 million in salary next season, which could bring a luxury tax bill of $123 million, according to ESPN's Bobby Marks.
That's not something the New Yorks or L.A.'s of the NBA want to do, let alone Oklahoma City.
Those numbers presume that Anthony opts in on the last year of his contract for $28 million. That's a logical assumption based on the fact that at age 34, Anthony won't find that kind of money elsewhere. If that happens, the best case for the Thunder is to somehow hope George does the same and eschews free agency by opting in on the final year of his existing deal at $20.7 million.
That would essentially give this iteration of Oklahoma City another season to try this all over again. This edition hasn't been bad, and the Jazz present a tough matchup for them, but losing Friday would be a premature, dull end to what was supposed to be a more thunderous season.