Fantasy: 5 passing attacks you should invest in
Get ready for your season with theScore's 2018 Fantasy Football Draft Kit.
At its core, fantasy football is simple: Figure out which NFL teams will score the most points and draft players on those teams.
It's not always quite that simple when drafting receivers, though. Target-hog pass-catchers on bad teams can deliver elite fantasy totals, just as multiple members of a deep receiving corps can eat into each other's targets and value. But generally, the fantasy teams left standing at the end of the season are the ones with the most shares in the NFL's best passing attacks.
Below are five passing offenses we expect to produce multiple pass-catchers worth drafting:
Green Bay Packers
2017 passing attempts: 562 (14th in NFL)
2017 passing yards: 3,167 (25th)
Players to target: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb, Jimmy Graham
Watch list: Geronimo Allison, J'Mon Moore, Ty Montgomery
Green Bay's attack isn't untouchable, as its numbers have fallen off considerably when Rodgers suffers injuries. But when he's healthy, this is the league's most lethal aerial assault, led by the best quarterback in real life and fantasy.
Adams quietly developed into the No. 1 option in the passing game, posting more touchdowns than any receiver over the last two seasons (22 to Antonio Brown's 21). He even put up top-14 fantasy stats in his seven outings with Brett Hundley under center. Now, Adams is poised to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark for the first time in his career, and he should be locked in as a fantasy WR1 and a safe second-round selection in drafts.
With Adams excelling, Cobb has taken a backseat in Green Bay since his 91-catch, 1,287-yard, 12-touchdown campaign in 2014. Many expected him to be a cap casualty before Nelson's declining play made the choice an easy one for the front office. It's hard to put your faith in a wideout averaging 632 yards and four scores over the last two years, but we know the upside is there for Cobb, and his role as the second weapon is secure. Don't overthink it when you see his name in the queue in the ninth round.
Allison will get the nod in three-receiver sets, a spot that's yielded solid fantasy numbers in the past. His challenge will be consistency, making him a better best-ball or DFS dart throw than a re-draft option at the start of the year.
Behind Allison will be a trio of rookies, led by J'Mon Moore and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. If you're upset I didn't name Equanimeous St. Brown, you might want to dig a little deeper in your research. Barring injury, it's unlikely the rookies will make an impact in Year 1, though Moore's size and high-pointing skills make him a watch-list candidate.
Graham is an interesting addition as a red-zone threat, but after watching his once-elite athleticism fade last year in Seattle, it's hard to see him reaching a notable yardage total in 2018. He has a shot at double-digit touchdowns, but he'll need Rodgers' magic to compete with the first-tier fantasy tight ends.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2017 passing attempts: 590 (6th)
2017 passing yards: 4,380 (3rd)
Players to target: Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Le'Veon Bell
Watch list: Vance McDonald, James Washington
Fortunately for fantasy owners, Roethlisberger didn't retire, meaning the Steelers' offense returns as a top unit. Big Ben tends to miss a few games each year, but he finished as the QB7 while appearing in 15 contests last season. His upside, especially at home, is enticing enough to target after the ninth round.
Instead of wasting time explaining Brown's greatness, let's just take a look at his stats over the last five seasons and be thankful we get to watch him on Sundays.
Year | Rec | Yds | TD |
---|---|---|---|
2013 | 110 | 1499 | 8 |
2014 | 129 | 1698 | 13 |
2015 | 136 | 1834 | 10 |
2016 | 106 | 1284 | 12 |
2017 | 101 | 1533 | 9 |
Smith-Schuster was a rookie sensation on the field and on social media. With several blow-up performances, including big games in the fantasy semifinals and championship weeks, JuJu helped many owners take home titles in 2017. That fact hasn't been forgotten in drafts this year, resulting in an ADP of WR17 at the moment. If his price is too high, you could consider the rookie deep threat Washington, who can be had for nothing at the end of drafts.
It's hard to justify paying running backs in the modern NFL, though Bell's argument that he's an RB1 and WR2 wrapped in one is hard to dispute. He hauled in 75 passes or more in three of the last four seasons, with the lone exception being an injury-shortened 2015 campaign.
It's possible Pittsburgh's passing game could get a boost with McDonald bringing a more athletic profile to the tight end position than Jesse James. McDonald is one of my favorite late-round fantasy tight ends heading into 2018, as I outlined in our exceeding expectations series.
Los Angeles Chargers
2017 passing attempts: 583 (8th)
2017 passing yards: 4,431 (1st)
Players to target: Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Tyrell Williams
Watch list: Virgil Green, Travis Benjamin
At 36, Rivers remains a borderline QB1 in fantasy, and his sustained success is insulated by a deep receiving corps. The Chargers also have a fairly soft passing schedule, aided by downgrades to the Chiefs' and Seahawks' secondaries.
Allen finally suited up for a full 16-game schedule and dominated en route to a career year, with 102 catches, 1,393 yards, and six touchdowns. He was particularly good for fantasy owners, providing seven 100-yard games, including four straight from Week 11 to 14. The 26-year-old's volume isn't likely to regress after Hunter Henry's season-ending injury, justifying his second-round value.
Losing Henry and not re-signing Antonio Gates opens up targets, especially in the red zone. The duo combined to see 42 percent of the team's targets inside the 10-yard line last year. The next man up on the tight end depth chart is Green, who has failed to realize his potential in the pros and is a long shot to do so, even in Henry's absence.
Enter sophomore Mike Williams, a contested-catch king at Clemson. The former first-rounder disappointed in all facets during a lost rookie season, but he's set up perfectly for a bounce-back year, earning an immediate role near the goal line. If he can win the No. 2 job over Tyrell Williams, a major breakout could be in the cards.
Tyrell is a talented player - so much so that he was featured when Allen went down in 2016 - but he saw his numbers drop significantly last season. Despite a 6-foot-4 frame, Tyrell saw just one red-zone target in 2017 to Allen's 24. It's clear the Chargers don't view him as worthy of increased usage in that area of the field, so he'll need another injury to Allen to truly be viable in fantasy.
New England Patriots
2017 passing attempts: 587 (7th)
2017 passing yards: 4,418 (2nd)
Players to target: Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski, Chris Hogan, Julian Edelman, Rex Burkhead
Watch list: Jordan Matthews, James White
Any doubts about Brady's ability to face the rigors of an NFL season at age 40 were silenced by a strong playoff run and capped by his 505-yard, three-touchdown Super Bowl performance. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for his output during the fantasy playoffs.
Brady was the QB19 during that three-week stretch, in which he faced the Dolphins, Steelers, and Bills - the same trio of teams he'll face in the fantasy playoffs this season, only as a 41-year-old. That's not to say you should avoid Brady, but it's a reminder that the age cliff is coming, even for TB12.
Much like Antonio Brown, there's little reason to waste time stating the obvious about Gronkowski. He's the best tight end in the game. Gronk will continue to be the Pats' top target, with his biggest challenge coming from Hogan.
Hogan was a top-10 fantasy wideout through eight games in 2017 prior to suffering a shoulder injury that sidelined him for most of the second half of the regular season. With Edelman suspended for the first four games, Hogan will once again have an opportunity to establish himself as New England's latest unheralded star. You might be able to get him in the sixth based on current ADP, but he should be valued at least one round higher.
Edelman was a difficult player to evaluate as a 32-year-old receiver coming off a torn ACL, and that was before his suspension came down. While I won't be investing in him, I don't blame anyone who wants to take on the risk for the cost of an eighth-round pick.
With Edelman missing the first month, Matthews gets a chance to revitalize his career catching passes from Brady. He's one year removed from being a serviceable receiver in Philly, and with his brief stint with the Bills behind him, he's generating positive reports in New England. It wouldn't be shocking to see Matthews produce WR3 numbers before Edelman returns.
Minnesota Vikings
2017 passing attempts: 527 (21st)
2017 passing yards: 3,753 (11th)
Players to target: Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs, Kyle Rudolph, Dalvin Cook
Watch list: Laquon Treadwell, Kendall Wright
Few teams have a lineup of skill-position players that rivals the Vikings. Thielen and Diggs make up arguably the best receiver tandem in the NFL, with both wideouts finishing as top-20 fantasy WRs in 2017. Rudolph was also extremely productive as the TE7, catching the second-most TDs at his position.
That group will now get an upgrade at quarterback with Cousins signing in free agency and an upgrade at running back with Cook returning from injury. The team's pass attempts might not increase much, but the offense as a whole should be more efficient with Cousins at the helm.
Thielen was a revelation last season, accumulating 91 catches and 1,276 yards at a consistent clip, with at least five grabs in 13 of his outings. His goal in 2018 will be to find the end zone more, after not crossing the goal line until Week 8 and only visiting that area four times all year.
Diggs picked up the slack in the touchdown department with eight, but missed two games and was held to 849 yards. It's a new team and system for Cousins, so we've yet to decipher which player or players he has chemistry with. Diggs could easily outpace Thielen this year if he builds a better rapport with his new QB.
Rudolph may see his target share grow in new offensive coordinator John DeFilippo's tight-end friendly system, and with Cousins, who loved throwing to Jordan Reed on his former club. The QB has already praised the Vikings tight end in OTAs, saying throwing to Rudolph is like "throwing into a mattress," which he definitely meant as a good thing.
Only in the deepest of leagues should you consider a Hail Mary fantasy play with Treadwell or Wright, who are battling for the third receiver role. Treadwell showed signs of improvement last season, while Wright hasn't done much since his rookie year. The former would be the player to own if an injury occurred higher up the depth chart.
More from this series
- Passing attacks to invest in
- Rushing attacks to invest in
- Offenses to avoid entirely
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