Fantasy: 7 risky picks to gamble on in 2018 (Updated)

Get ready for your season with theScore's 2018 Fantasy Football Draft Kit.

Gambling with your fantasy picks can be stressful, but it can also be exhilarating. If you're willing to take some chances, here are the players who could deliver league-winning performances in 2018 - as long as they don't sink your team first.

Average draft position (ADP) data courtesy of Fantasy Football Calculator and is based on 12-team leagues with standard scoring.

More from this series

• Breakouts to target
• Busts to avoid
• Sleepers to steal
• Risky picks to gamble on
• Bounce-back candidates
• Super-deep sleepers
• Players who will lead you to a title

Andrew Luck, QB, Colts

Luck's ADP should continue to rise as his practice participation increases in August. For now, the uncertainty around his recovery has taken him out of the top 10 quarterbacks in fantasy owners' minds. But don't let the current situation lead you to disregard just how good Luck has been since entering the NFL. He finished as the fantasy QB7, QB3, and QB2 in his first three NFL seasons. During his fourth year, which was cut short by injury, Luck's on-pace stats would have made him the QB7 at season's end. In his fifth year, he bounced back as the QB4, and we haven't seen him since. It's possible his surgically repaired shoulder will prevent him from returning to his previous form. However, it's also possible the 28-year-old will come back in his prime as one of the league's best passers. Take the discount on Luck and pair him with a late-round quarterback to hedge your bet.

Risk Factor: ☢☢☢☢
ADP: 8th round (QB11)

Jerick McKinnon, RB, 49ers

In the sleepers article, we discussed the productivity of Kyle Shanahan's running games and the value to be found in the 49ers' backfield. We also mentioned that, despite being paid like a workhorse back in free agency, McKinnon's never handled more than 202 touches in a season. That gives hope for someone like Matt Breida or Joe Williams to take on a complementary role and help ease the burden on McKinnon. However, it doesn't rule out the possibility that he'll thrive as a lead back and become an RB1 in fantasy. As Rotoworld pointed out earlier in the offseason, Shanahan has coached a top-15 fantasy back in five of the last six seasons.

Risk Factor: ☢☢☢
ADP: 2nd round (RB13)

Dion Lewis, RB, Titans

Lewis is coming off a very successful year in which he emerged as the Patriots' top weapon out of the backfield with 896 yards on 180 carries, 32 receptions for 214 yards, and eight combined touchdowns. The result was a top-20 fantasy season in standard and PPR leagues. After ascending New England's running back depth chart, he now has to find his place in Tennessee, where Derrick Henry looked like the heir apparent before Lewis' arrival. On paper, Lewis seems to be the better fit in offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur's system, but this is likely headed for a timeshare, with Lewis getting far more work as a receiver. Henry's being drafted first as fantasy owners cling to the hope of a breakout that may never come. Wait a few rounds and take your chances with Lewis, a far more dynamic back.

Risk Factor: ☢☢☢
ADP: 6th round (RB29)

Allen Robinson, WR, Bears

It's easy to get excited about Robinson's fantasy prospects, especially since he's escaped Blake Bortles' Jacksonville purgatory. Things weren't all bad with the Jaguars - Robinson did explode for his 80-catch, 1,400-yard, 14-touchdown campaign in 2015 when they were playing from behind most weeks. He faded in 2016 as the team improved and garbage-time stats weren't as readily available, then suffered a torn ACL that cost him the 2017 season. Robinson is expected to make a full recovery by training camp, but it's fair to worry about a wide receiver coming off a serious injury and playing with a new team. Robinson's talent shouldn't be questioned, though, nor should the skills of offensive-minded head coach Matt Nagy. If Mitch Trubisky's development continues to progress, Robinson will have no problem re-entering the top-20 fantasy wideouts.

Risk Factor: ☢☢☢☢
ADP: 5th round (WR21)

Will Fuller, WR, Texans

Playing with Deshaun Watson was basically a cheat code for Fuller. In four games together, Fuller put up nearly 70 yards per contest and scored an outrageous seven touchdowns. That is not a typo: Fuller found the end zone seven times in four games before disappearing once Watson was lost for the season. DeAndre Hopkins is the leader of the Texans' receiving corps, but Fuller offers massive fantasy upside if he can reproduce even half of that insane touchdown rate. Unfortunately, this isn't a breakout article. We're talking about players who are gambles, and after missing eight games in two years, Fuller comes with durability concerns. As long as you're waiting until the sixth round or later, Fuller is a solid WR3 target who can put up week-winning performances throughout the fantasy season.

Risk Factor: ☢☢☢☢
ADP: 5th round (WR24)

Jack Doyle, TE, Colts

A huge part of Doyle's fantasy value will come from Luck's return to the field, so take the section above on the risk involved with the quarterback and bake it into Doyle's draft stock. The other factor pushing Doyle out of the top 10 is the Colts' acquisition of Eric Ebron. Doyle has been a top-10 fantasy tight end in each of the last two seasons and showed a connection with Luck in 2016, but Ebron finished as a TE1 three straight years in Detroit. The stranglehold Doyle had on the Colts' starting job before free agency isn't quite as tight now. Given the lack of a second quality receiver behind T.Y. Hilton, however, both Doyle and Ebron might have fantasy value in 2018.

Risk Factor: ☢☢☢☢
ADP: 13th round (TE15)

O.J. Howard, TE, Buccaneers

Much like Doyle, Howard's 2018 outlook is impacted by the presence of another tight end, but the Buccaneers didn't add anyone new to the mix - they simply brought back starter and touchdown-scorer Cameron Brate. While the money was a little more than most expected, it wasn't a surprising move considering how much Jameis Winston has relied on Brate in recent years. It does put a damper on Howard's fantasy value, though, as the first-round pick appeared to be on the verge of a breakout. He eclipsed the 50-yard mark three times over his final five games as a rookie and scored three touchdowns during that stretch. Howard is still the more intriguing fantasy player, but his ceiling depends on how much Brate remains involved.

Risk Factor: ☢☢☢
ADP: 14th round (TE17)

(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)

More from this series

• Breakouts to target
• Busts to avoid
• Sleepers to steal
• Risky picks to gamble on
• Bounce-back candidates
• Super-deep sleepers
• Players who will lead you to a title