Long term or bust: Projecting William Nylander's next contract
It's been over a month since John Tavares inked a seven-year deal with the Maple Leafs, and his arrival to Toronto has caused some to measure the on-ice implications - the Leafs are now one of the deepest teams in the league - with the club's unsettling salary cap situation and how it will approach spending going forward.
Currently, general manager Kyle Dubas has over $13 million in cap space to operate with, and the front office will now have to carefully calculate its next moves, starting with an extension for forward William Nylander, the lone member on the Leafs' ledger without a deal for next season.
Nylander is the first of Toronto's group of young stars to have his entry-level deal expire, so his next pact takes precedence over the likes of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner, who are also eligible to sign an extension.
Many have speculated as to whether the Leafs can retain all three, and it's been Nylander's name which has thus far been tossed around as potential trade bait. But Dubas remains certain Toronto can and will keep the entire band together, while Nylander recently said he's seeking a long-term deal.
Such a long-term extension would best suit both parties involved. Bridge deals are decreasing across today's NHL, and for a player of Nylander's caliber, the safer bet for Toronto would be offering terms and money now rather than facing the same problem in the near future with the possibility of him being worth even more.
Let's dive into what Nylander's contract could look like.
His role
Nylander is undoubtedly a game-breaking talent. He's an effortless skater, protects and passes the puck incredibly well, and completes his arsenal with an absolute cannon of a shot. The rub, particularly in the eyes of head coach Mike Babcock, is his commitment to a full effort on both sides of the puck, and that has led to him being bumped down the lineup.
Primarily, however, he's Matthews' running mate on the Leafs' top line, and is an integral factor in No. 34's success. Last season, Nylander and Matthews played over 700 minutes together at five-on-five, controlling 50.8 percent of the shots and over 54 percent of scoring chances, per Natural Stat Trick. Without Nylander, Matthews wasn't quite as dominant, amassing a 47.12 Corsi For percentage and 51.64 Scoring Chances For percentage, albeit it in a much smaller sample of 210 minutes.
The two are also electric together on the power play, though it remains to be seen what kind of combinations Babcock will put together with the addition of Tavares and losses of James van Riemsdyk and Tyler Bozak. Tavares' arrival also stops Nylander from moving to center, which he was forced to do as an injury replacement in the past, and keeps him on the right side.
His production
In 185 career regular-season games, Nylander's notched 135 points, good for a 0.73 point-per-game clip. However, if you eliminate the 22-game stint in which he began his tenure with the Maple Leafs to close out the 2015-16 campaign, his average goes up to 0.75, which paints a clearer picture of the company he keeps as a player.
Below is a list of every player in the salary cap era to maintain at least a 0.75 point-per-game average in their second and third seasons, aged 19-to-21 with at least 100 games played.
(Screenshot courtesy: Hockey Reference)
Over the last two seasons, Nylander is tied for 12th among all right wingers in even-strength points (84), tied for seventh in even-strength assists (56), and 12th in total points (122), despite ranking 34th in average ice time at his position (16:21).
Recent Comparables
When it comes to asking price, Nylander's agent and Dubas have a decent list of comparable players. Here are five players to recently ink extensions at the conclusion of their ELC's, and their numbers when they signed.
| Player | Age | P/GP | Contract |
|---|---|---|---|
| J. Gaudreau | 23 | 0.89 | 6 x $6.75M |
| F. Forsberg | 21 | 0.73 | 6 x $6M |
| L. Draisaitl | 21 | 0.72 | 8 x $8.5M |
| D. Pastrnak | 21 | 0.72 | 6 x $6.66M |
| N. Ehlers | 22 | 0.66 | 7 x $6M |
Draisaitl came out the richest, though his cost was inflated by a playoff performance that included 16 points in 13 games, and his ability to serve behind Connor McDavid as the future No. 2 center for the Oilers. The others are examples of teams shelling out money sooner rather than later and subsequently benefiting from banking on their players' upside. If Gaudreau, Forsberg, Pastrnak, or Ehlers had signed a bridge contract, would any of them get the same sort of team-friendly deal a year or two from now when it would be up for renewal? Highly unlikely.
Verdict
It's reasonable to assume Nylander can slot in comfortably among the list of comparable contracts. The trend here is six-to-eight years with the cap hit somewhere between $6 million and $8 million, which is more than manageable for Toronto.
If Nylander gets the max term, taking him all the way to 30 years old, the Leafs will have to pay more annually, which could eliminate the possibility of an eight-year deal. But a six- or seven-year contract in the range of $6.25 to $7 million seems suitable for all parties, and could provide incredible value if Nylander takes his game to the next level as Toronto itself looks to do the same.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)
(Salary cap info courtesy: Cap Friendly)