X vs. O: Breaking down 3 marquee Week 4 matchups

Here's a look at the key tactical showdowns that will likely decide the outcomes of three NFL games this week:

Mike Zimmer vs. Sean McVay

The spotlight game of the Week 4 slate is on Thursday night when the Minnesota Vikings travel west to clash with the undefeated Los Angeles Rams. This game will test two head coaches with opposite backgrounds. Vikings head coach Mike Zimmer is a former defensive coordinator, while Rams counterpart Sean McVay is a former offensive coordinator. The game might be determined by how Zimmer and the Vikings handle the number 11.

In this case, 11 refers to 11 offensive personnel, a designation for when the offense lines up with one tight end, one running back, and three wide receivers. Sharp Football, which charts personnel grouping frequency, tells us that the Rams have used an 11 personnel package on 98 percent of their offensive plays so far in 2018.

Why does that matter? Because offensive personnel dictates the defensive personnel and alignment.

When a defense sees the offensive personnel package, the unit adjusts its own personnel. So a defense, in response to 11 personnel, likely uses more defensive backs than linebackers. Seeing three wide receivers in the game, the unit typically plays fewer defenders in the box.

That’s when McVay’s creative use of 11 personnel comes into play.

According to Sharp’s data, the Rams pass using 11 personnel just 53 percent of the time, the league's lowest percentage. On their 91 rushing plays out of 11 personnel, they have averaged 4.4 yards per carry while taking advantage of defenses with fewer men in the box.

Teams using 11 personnel face eight-plus men in the box just seven percent of the time, according to Josh Hermsmeyer of FiveThirtyEight. Often, offenses using that formation see just six defenders in the box.

Last year alone, Rams running back Todd Gurley faced the lowest percentage of eight-plus man boxes because of how McVay uses 11 personnel. That advantage shows up on tape:

Here, the Rams come out in 11 personnel, and they use jet motion to get the Los Angeles Chargers’ linebackers moving before the snap. They run Gurley to the inside run using a power-blocking scheme and pick up a big gain on the ground.

We can expect this strategy to continue on Thursday night. Zimmer and his defenders will need to stop the Rams’ 11 personnel rushing attack. The Vikings could put more defenders into the box, hoping they can execute solid man coverage on the receivers. They could also hope their linebackers can win one-on-one matchups despite a numbers disadvantage up front.

Dolphins' crossing routes vs. Patriots' blitz defense

Almost nobody saw this coming: A Week 4 tilt between the 3-0 Miami Dolphins and the 1-2 New England Patriots, with the Dolphins having the opportunity to build a three-game lead in the AFC East over the defending AFC champions. If the Dolphins are going leave Gillette Stadium with that lead, they’ll likely have to lean on crossing routes.

Crossing routes have been giving the Patriots' defense fits since last season. In Super Bowl LII, New England’s inability to defend shallow crossing routes allowed the Philadelphia Eagles to convert multiple third downs. The Eagles were able to extend drives and score touchdowns instead of settling for field goals. That's usually how you beat the Patriots.

That weakness has continued during the 2018 season for New England. It stems from the Pats struggling to get pressure on opposing quarterbacks with just four pass-rushers, forcing Brian Flores, New England’s linebackers coach and defensive play-caller, to blitz more.

When a defense blitzes, it usually has to play man coverage. Right now, the Patriots’ defense lacks the athleticism to cover short underneath crossing routes in those situations.

Against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 3, the Patriots’ defense couldn't get off the field on the first third-down play it faced:

On the blitz, linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley (No. 51) has a shot at Blake Bortles. But he misses, and the Jaguars quarterback finds Austin Seferian-Jenkins to move the chains.

Jacksonville tacked on a touchdown before halftime too, doing it with another crossing route against the blitz that extended the drive:

Now here come the Dolphins, a team thriving in the short passing game and on crossing routes under head coach Adam Gase. Returning from injury, quarterback Ryan Tannehill is off to a solid start. He's among the league leaders in many passing categories, including completion percentage, touchdowns, quarterback rating, and adjusted net yards per attempt.

That success is partly tied to crossing routes, like this play against the New York Jets:

If the Patriots are going to stave off panic at home on Sunday, they’ll need to come up with an answer for the Dolphins' crisp crossing routes.

Browns' anticipation vs. Raiders' defense

The Cleveland Browns recorded their first victory in 635 days last Thursday night when they knocked off the visiting Jets. After starting quarterback Tyrod Taylor was sidelined with a concussion, rookie Baker Mayfield stepped in and led the Browns to a comeback victory during his first NFL regular-season action.

There was a palpable difference when Mayfield entered the game. The Browns' energy level increased and the offensive execution improved.

NFL.com's Next Gen Stats shows the difference:

All of Taylor’s passes were to the outside or deep, with no throws to the middle of the field. Mayfield, meanwhile, was willing to challenge the defense everywhere.

That stems from Mayfield’s ability to make anticipation throws, releasing the pass before a receiver is actually open. Here's an example:

Mayfield pulls the trigger on this throw to David Njoku before the tight end even clears the linebacker.

Mayfield’s first NFL start comes against the Oakland Raiders, a team with an 0-3 record and a defense that's struggled at times against the pass. The Raiders have allowed opposing passers to post an adjusted net yards per attempt of 8.9, the second-highest in the league. Part of the problem is that the Raiders can't get a consistent pass rush, perhaps because they traded Khalil Mack, one of the NFL's premier pass-rushers, to the Chicago Bears.

Mayfield’s willingness to make anticipation throws, including but not limited to the middle of the field, puts pressure on the defense to cover all areas of the field. The Oakland defense will have its hands full with an energized Browns squad eagerly anticipating their rookie quarterback's first NFL start.

Mark Schofield writes NFL feature content for theScore. After nearly a decade of practicing law in the Washington, D.C., area Mark changed careers and started writing about football. Drawing upon more than a decade of playing quarterback, including at the collegiate level, Mark focuses his work on quarterback evaluation and offensive scheme analysis. He lives in Maryland with his wife and two children. Find him on Twitter @MarkSchofield.