Super Bowl LIII betting report: Patriots, under catching the early money
Super Bowl LIII between the New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams is expected to see an enormous betting handle. Here's how the early betting is shaping up ahead of Sunday.
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Rams
Opening odds: PK / 59
Current odds: NE -2.5 / 56.5
It's intriguing to wonder how the market would have reacted to the Super Bowl line had the times of the conference championship games been flipped. The last memory bettors had of championship Sunday was the Patriots hanging 37 effortless points on the Kansas City Chiefs' defense, perhaps leading to some recency bias.
It's difficult to tell how much of a role the championship-round game times have played. Regardless, bettors have been heavy on the Patriots in the early going.
Following New England's win, William Hill opened the Super Bowl at a pick 'em, while the Westgate hung a Rams -1. The Patriots quickly became the consensus favorites at -1 in most Vegas shops later that Sunday night, including -1.5 at Station Casinos.
As far as volume is concerned, the Patriots received four times the tickets and 100 times more money than the Rams at MGM when betting opened. That included a six-figure play, while William Hill took a $65,000-dollar wager on New England -2. BetCris in Costa Rica was so flooded with Patriots money, it moved from Rams -1 to Pats -2.5 in just 17 minutes.
MGM took another six-figure wager after Day 2, with 75 percent of tickets and 96 percent of the money on New England. South Point in Las Vegas was the first book to put up a Patriots -3 last Tuesday, a move that lasted all of 17 minutes before coming back down to -2.5. Three days in, CG Technology in Vegas saw 94 percent of the money on the spread come in on New England.
This past weekend, a couple books moved the Patriots to -3, while the consensus total dropped from 57.5 to 56.5. As of Sunday night, 89 percent of the spread money at MGM was on New England. That included 14 five-figure wagers to zero placed on the Rams. The same shop also saw under money come in over the weekend, but sportsbook supervisor Scott Shelton told Covers.com that he expects the sharps to come back on the total, which could push the number back up to 58 or 59 by game time.
It took eight days, but Rams money started trickling in at William Hill. Ninety-four percent of the spread money was on the Patriots on opening, but it dipped to 57 percent this past Monday.
The same book also had 41 percent of the Super Bowl MVP bets on Rams quarterback Jared Goff at +250 as of Monday night. Another prop hit hard was Patriots quarterback Tom Brady's passing yards, which shot up from 282.5 yards to 295.5 at the SuperBook.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.