Super Bowl betting trends to consider
Need some help spotting situational edges for the upcoming Super Bowl? We've got you covered.
Here are betting trends to consider before the Los Angeles Rams take on the New England Patriots (-2.5) on Feb. 3 in Atlanta.
Underdogs hot on the spread
The Super Bowl has featured terrific underdog stories in recent years, including the New York Giants' outright win over the undefeated Patriots as 14-point 'dogs in 2008, Peyton Manning riding off into the sunset with another ring despite his Denver Broncos getting 5.5 points against the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl 50, and last season's victory for Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles over favored New England. It's certainly been a common theme over the last 17 championship games, as underdogs are on a 13-4 run against the spread, and have taken six of the previous seven outright.
Pick a QB for MVP
When the Super Bowl MVP is announced, chances are high it'll be Jared Goff or Tom Brady. A quarterback's taken home the top individual honor after seven of the previous nine title games, while the last non-QB offensive player to win the award was Santonio Holmes back in 2009 (Pittsburgh Steelers). Meanwhile, Seattle Seahawks linebacker Malcolm Smith (2014) and Broncos pass-rusher Von Miller (2016) are the two outliers during the current offensive surge, but there's simply too much volatility in trying to determine a defensive MVP for one game.
The 'white jersey' trend
In Super Bowl LIII, the Patriots will wear their white jerseys while the Rams will rock their throwback blues. And there are legitimate human beings out there who will claim New England has an advantage, seeing as 12 of the previous 14 Super Bowl winners have worn white jerseys. This means absolutely nothing, but it's still absolutely interesting.
Teams getting points have gone over their total
Underdogs have put up plenty of points in recent years. In the last six Super Bowls, every 'dog has surpassed their team total with an average of 32.3 points scored per game. The Rams (+2.5) were better than that during the regular season, ranking No. 2 in the NFL at 32.9 points per contest.
If you like the Patriots, take them on the spread
You can shop around at a variety of sportsbooks to find the favored Patriots on the moneyline at some nice prices. But if you like the Pats to win, history shows you'd be better off avoiding the extra juice and taking the -2.5 spread in this spot instead. Heading into Sunday, 44 of the 52 outright Super Bowl winners also covered the spread.
Expect increased scoring in 2nd half
In recent championship games, it's often seemed like teams were feeling each other out early before scoring a flurry of points late. In fact, there have been more points scored in the second half in 15 of the last 20 Super Bowls. And yes, that's a prop bet you can wager on at numerous books.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.