2019 Heisman Trophy odds, best bets, and players to avoid

The annual Heisman Trophy winner is announced in December, but odds are already out for the 2019 award.

Clemson's Trevor Lawrence and Alabama's Tua Tagovailoa are the two betting favorites, but there's been early money on a trio of other quarterbacks. Soon after the odds were released by the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, bettors jumped on Michigan's Shea Patterson, Texas' Sam Ehlinger and Georgia's Jake Fromm.

Patterson's odds opened at 100-1, but they were quickly bet down to 20-1. Meanwhile, Ehlinger moved from 50-1 to 20-1 and Fromm lowered from 40-1 to 20-1, according to SuperBook Race & Sports Manager Derek Wilkinson, who labeled Ehlinger "our biggest liability in the mid-five figures."

The complete odds are below:

Best Bets

Trevor Lawrence, QB Clemson (11-4 or +275)

Lawrence is coming off the greatest freshman season of any quarterback in history. After replacing Kelly Bryant as the starter in the fifth game of the season, Lawrence threw for 3,280 yards with 30 touchdowns and just four interceptions, leading the Tigers to their second national title in the last three years.

Clemson will be in the hunt once again this season, even with key losses on the defensive side of the ball. That's one reason I like Lawrence a bit more than Tua, as he's a rare talent who will put up huge numbers for a team that's the +225 favorite to repeat as champion.

Lawrence also has the advantage of playing in the defensively challenged ACC, which was evident throughout his amazing freshman campaign. Expect the super sophomore to be even better in 2019 and atop the Heisman odds board all year.

Justin Fields, QB Ohio State (10-1)

Not many college football fans have seen Fields play yet, but at 10-1, he's my favorite bet on the board.

Fields was the No. 1 recruit in the country two years ago. He ended up going to Georgia, but then transferred when he couldn't beat out Fromm for the starting job. Now, he'll replace Dwayne Haskins as Ohio State's starting quarterback this fall.

Once dubbed the next Cam Newton, Fields has loads of talent and will excel in Ohio State's spread offense. It helps that the Buckeyes will open their season with games against Florida Atlantic, Cincinnati, Indiana, and Miami (OH).

After putting up monster numbers against those inferior opponents, Fields' Heisman odds will be cut in half. Grab him now.

Adrian Martinez, QB Nebraska (10-1)

Martinez opened at 18-1, but he's been bet down to 10-1. Last season as a freshman, the dual-threat quarterback threw for 2,617 yards and 17 touchdowns while adding 629 yards and eight scores on the ground. Martinez also set himself up for a Heisman run in 2019 by shining in a late-season game versus Ohio State, in which he racked up 332 total yards and scored three touchdowns.

Nebraska is expected to be much improved in Scott Frost’s second year, with seven returning starters on an offense that set a school record for yards per game last season. And the Cornhuskers should get off to a fast start thanks to a soft early-season schedule that includes South Alabama, Colorado, Northern Illinois, and Illinois.

I got Martinez at 15-1, but still like him at odds of 10-1 or longer. The Cornhuskers could ride their potent offense to a 4-0 start, and if they upset Ohio State at home on Sept. 28, watch out.

Players to Avoid

Shea Patterson, QB Michigan (20-1)

Listen, if you grabbed Patterson at 100-1 or 50-1, pat yourself on the back. He's worth a shot at those odds. However, there's no way I'll bet him at 20-1.

After transferring from Ole Miss, Patterson was inconsistent in his first season as Michigan's starter, throwing for 2,600 yards with 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Jim Harbaugh says he'll open up the offense this year, but I'll believe it when I see it. Besides, Harbaugh opening up his archaic offense means it will only be outdated by 20 years instead of 50.

If Michigan goes unbeaten, Patterson will be in the discussion, but at 20-1, the value is long gone. I'd rather take shot on Ehlinger, Fromm, or Oregon's Justin Herbert at the same odds.

Jalen Hurts, QB Oklahoma (10-1)

Will Oklahoma produce three Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks in a row? Don't bet on it.

Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray both won the honor in Lincoln Riley's pass-happy offense, but while Hurts will certainly put up big numbers this year, he's not in the same class as the last two No. 1 NFL draft picks. In two years as Alabama's starter, Hurts threw 40 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also led the Crimson Tide to two national championship game appearances, but he's not the same passer as Mayfield or an elite athlete like Murray.

Hurts will be in the mix simply because he's playing in Riley's system, but his odds are too short based on Oklahoma's back-to-back Heisman winners. He should be closer to 20-1. At 10-1, grab players with more upside like Fields or Martinez.

AJ Dillon, RB Boston College (40-1)

Dillon is probably my favorite player in college football, but he has virtually no shot at winning the Heisman. He would need a perfect storm of injuries and poor play from the top contenders just to be in the conversation.

For Dillon to have a legitimate shot, we're looking at 2,000-plus rushing yards and Boston College pushing for a berth in the College Football Playoffs. It's simply too much to ask for, and even if those things happen, it may not be enough for Dillon to beat out the top quarterbacks.

There's no question that Dillin is a great running back, but his true odds are a heck of a lot greater than 40-1. I'd rather take a shot on Georgia rusher D'Andre Swift at 60-1. It's a hard pass on Dillon.