NFL preseason betting tips

The 2019 NFL preseason starts tonight - sort of - as the Denver Broncos and Atlanta Falcons square off in the Hall of Fame Game. It will feature decidedly non-Hall of Fame performances from both sides, but that doesn't mean it's not a worthwhile venture for bettors to follow.

How can seemingly meaningless football prove profitable? Much like betting on the NFL draft or NBA free agency, bettors and bookmakers are on relatively even footing in terms of access to information for the NFL preseason. It allows gamblers a chance to use research to find an edge as usual trends and statistical factors mostly go out the window.

Here are five tips to placing bets during the NFL preseason:

Dig for info

We've said it before, and we'll say it again: betting during the NFL preseason is an information game.

Teams tend to be more open with their strategies in the preseason than during the regular season, when doing so would be an obvious competitive misstep. Coaches aren't paid to win these games - they're paid to develop players and implement systems, so tipping their hands may even put a little added pressure on those oft-young players to perform.

That's when a bettor can capitalize. If you know one team plans to play its starters for the entire first half while the other focuses on developing its young backups, there may be value on the former.

Pick your spots

If one thing holds true across all NFL preseason games, it's that full starting units never play the entire contest. Usually, they'll only see a series or two in Week 1, one or two quarters in Week 2, and maybe a full half in Week 3 before hitting the bench in Week 4.

That can leave plenty of value if you bet the first-half or first-quarter line in a game that pits starters against backups. Do your research. If you know one head coach plans to play his starters for the first quarter, but the other is a one-drive-and-out type of guy, you've found a clear edge.

Or perhaps one team is clearly better at full strength, but books are dealing a short first-half line despite both sides playing their starters for one half. That's a good chance to play the favorite, especially since preseason lines tend to be tighter than they are during the regular season.

Bookmakers are obviously aware of how preseason football works, so don't go chasing a bad first-half line for the sake of tricking those behind the window. But if you're quick to see a team's first-half game plan or feel strongly about a first-quarter advantage, grab the value while you can.

You also don't have to bet every week. Starters play more regularly as the preseason progresses, which provides more assurances for bettor and bookmaker alike. Bet early if you want to take advantage of the information race, or bet late if you'd rather rely on your knowledge of teams and starting lineups.

Next man up

With starters shelved for much of the preseason, depth is the make-or-break element to winning games.

Quarterback is a key positional depth chart to watch. If a team has an experienced veteran or talented rookie holding the clipboard, it might be worth putting down a few bucks. Likewise, if the QB room is barren outside of the starter, you may want to look elsewhere.

Take the Broncos, for example. With Joe Flacco sidelined, Kevin Hogan is expected to get the start Thursday night against 38-year-old Matt Schaub, with second-round pick Drew Lock serving as Denver's backup. Lock is raw but was a potential top-15 talent in the draft, so he could provide some solid second-half value against Atlanta's third-stringers.

The same holds true for other positions. The Broncos are loaded with young guns on offense, from Courtland Sutton to Royce Freeman to Noah Fant, and face a Falcons defense that is again dealing with injuries and looking to groom its rookies on a thinner depth chart. This doesn't mean you need to bet the house on Denver, but it's the sort of information worth eyeing in games like these.

Know your coaches

While it's important to know the roster situations, it can be equally valuable to recognize how coaches view the preseason.

Take the Seattle Seahawks' Pete Carroll and the Baltimore Ravens' John Harbaugh, who own the two most profitable records against the spread (with at least five preseason games coached). Both have lauded the value of these games, and the results don't lie: Carroll is 33-16 ATS (67.3 percent) and Harbaugh is 30-15 ATS (66.7 percent), including 13 straight wins.

Conversely, Jason Garrett has been criticized for his risk-averse approach to the preseason. Sure enough, his Dallas Cowboys are 11-21-1 ATS (34.4 percent), the second-worst record among active coaches (with at least five preseason games) behind Atlanta's Dan Quinn (4-12 ATS).

Don't fall for low totals

Preseason games typically have lower totals than regular-season contests - the highest preseason total in 2018 was 44, per RotoGrinders, with most falling in the mid-to-high 30s. Basic reasoning suggests backups struggle more and offenses are slower to implement game plans than defenses.

Is there truth to that? The evidence is murky at best. Overs reigned supreme in the early 2010s when totals were artificially low yet teams still performed closer to regular expectation. Oddsmakers boosted totals in 2013 to slow the trend, and in recent years, under has seen its day - going 36-27-1 (57.1 percent) in 2016 and 41-23 (64.1 percent) in 2017 before a 32-33 record (49.2 percent) in 2018.

So where does that leave the bettor? Give the under an extra look, but don't fall into the myth that preseason means poor offenses and no points. Defenses are pretty dismal, too.