NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds, best bets

If you thought this year's NFL MVP field was volatile, try your hand at betting the Comeback Player of the Year award.

The CPOY, awarded annually since 1998, is ambiguous in nature, which makes it fun yet frustrating for bettors. Some years, it's a player coming back from injury; once it was won after an 18-month prison stay.

What can the past tell us about this year's potential winner? And which candidates have the best shot in 2019?

Award history

The Comeback Player of the Year award has been historically dominated by quarterbacks - 12 of the 22 winners have been signal-callers, including eight of the last 13. (The other winners: three receivers, three defensive linemen, a running back, a tight end, a linebacker, and a safety.)

Recent years have seen a shift away from the QB. Andrew Luck's 2018 win broke a four-year drought for quarterbacks:

In the past 10 years, comeback has almost exclusively meant "from injury." Eight winners of the past decade have been rewarded for health-related reasons, including five straight.

The award has almost entirely abandoned defense, too. While two of the first four winners were defensive players, Eric Berry is the lone winner of the past 11 seasons.

Knowing those trends, let's run through this year's NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds (shorter than 20-1) and some of the top candidates to win:

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers (13-4)

Garoppolo is the obvious favorite here and for good reason - he checks all the boxes of past winners. He's a quarterback, he missed 13 games last year with a torn ACL, and is also a fan favorite (Jimmy GQ, anyone?) in a distinctly narrative-based award.

The only issue with laying short odds versus the field is knowing if Garoppolo is actually, you know, good at quarterbacking. He's shown signs in New England and San Francisco but is yet to string together meaningful performances, and his QBR in 2018 was a dastardly 26.9 - which would have ranked a hair above Josh Rosen (26.6) for worst in the NFL over a full season.

Sample size looms large here, both on his rough 49ers debut and his flashes of brilliance. Even if he splits the difference, he's a solid bet at short odds.

Derrius Guice, RB, Redskins (12-1)

Guice's odds are tied for the fourth-shortest on the board, but the "rookie" feels like a clear No. 2 behind Garoppolo. The talented LSU product appeared primed for a big year in 2018 before tearing his ACL in the preseason, and the QB conundrum in Washington should leave him with a massive opportunity in 2019.

Two people stand in Guice's way. One is Adrian Peterson, a 2018 CPOY finalist who will likely siphon away carries in 2019. The other is Guice himself. His recovery hasn't been smooth, though the team is saying the right things about his readiness come Week 1.

He has the talent, the situation, and the narrative to literally run away with this award. Among those with longer than 10-1 odds, he's the best bet on the board.

Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams (18-1)

My favorite long shot is Kupp, who turned heads through eight games last year before tearing his ACL. The most common winners outside of QB are receivers and defensive linemen, and Kupp is carrying the torch for recuperating pass-catchers.

The biggest problem facing Kupp is the bar he'll have to clear. The three WRs who won before him were Pro Bowlers, so the third-year receiver may need a stellar 2019 to win the award. Still, 18-1 is too cheap to not throw a dart at his chances.

Other notable candidates

Le'Veon Bell (9-2): Bell is clearly the most talented player in the field, though it's hard to imagine voters rewarding him for a self-imposed year off.

Cam Newton (14-1): He's a quarterback with injury woes, sure, but Newton still played 14 games in 2018 and is a risky bet to perform well in 2019.

Earl Thomas (14-1): Thomas' dramatic end to his Seahawks tenure helps his case, and he'll get big-play opportunities in Baltimore. Can he be the same player he was in Seattle?

Jason Witten (16-1): Witten would be a one-of-a-kind winner, that's for sure, but how good can he really be? He'd have to top 560 yards and five touchdowns, which was his 2017 output pre-retirement.

Travis Frederick (30-1): Frederick actually offers intriguing value given his elite talent and road to recovery, but an offensive lineman has never drawn enough attention to win this award.