NFL Week 1 trend plays
The NFL regular season finally kicks off with Thursday's opener, which means a full 16-game slate is on the horizon for anxious bettors. It also means a host of trends drawn from last year, as well as past season openers.
Each week, we'll highlight the best betting trends and angles. Here are some of the more notable ones to watch for Week 1:
Trends from Sports Database unless noted otherwise
Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins
Line: Ravens -7
Bettors have been circling Baltimore in this game since Week 1 odds were first released this summer, and the line is still climbing this week with the Dolphins' continued roster demolition. The trends suggest there's still value here, though: the Ravens are 11-4 against the spread on the road in the past two years. They've also covered eight consecutive games against Miami and five straight on the road. Trading away three core contributors a week before the season doesn't exactly inspire hope in the Fins snapping either streak.
Trend play: Ravens -7
Los Angeles Rams at Carolina Panthers
Line: Rams -3
L.A. was a few plays away from winning Super Bowl 53 in February, but that oh-so-close result may leave bettors wanting more in Week 1. Since 2000, the Super Bowl runner-up has gone 3-16 against the spread in its season opener, including 1-4 against the spread in the last five years. The Rams are also 5-13-1 against the number in Week 1 since winning the Super Bowl in 2000.
Trend play: Panthers +3
Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns
Line: Browns -5.5
The Browns open the year as sizable favorites despite finishing with a worse record than Tennessee did in 2018. Teams giving at least three points despite a worse record the previous year are 9-2 against the spread in the last six seasons, according to Boyd's Bets. Conversely, road underdogs with at least seven wins the year before - like this year's Titans - are 62-95-5 (39.5%) against the spread over that span. Cleveland closed 2018 on a 5-2 ATS run and enters 2019 as a Super Bowl contender; the Titans ended the year 2-5 ATS and could be a rough opener away from serious discussions at quarterback.
Trend play: Browns -5.5
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders
Line: Raiders -1
While road 'dogs with 2018 success could struggle in their 2019 openers, those coming off a bad year may hold potential Week 1 upside. Road underdogs with fewer than seven wins the previous year are 76-51-6 against the spread in Week 1, according to Boyd's Bets, which could signal value on the Broncos for trend bettors. Denver is the better team, and new head coach Vic Fangio helped the Chicago Bears to a 9-1 ATS regular-season finish in 2018 behind a dominant defense.
Trend play: Broncos +1
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.