NFL Week 1 over/under best bets

While most public bettors are hitting sides in the first week of NFL action, some of the best value lies in betting the total - especially with offseason perception driving these numbers more than reality.

Each week of the NFL season, we'll highlight some of the best bets on the over/under. Here are our picks for Week 1:

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 52.5

Since 1989, only three Week 1 contests have ever featured a total above 52 - one in each of 2013, 2014, and 2015, with the under going 2-0-1. However, there are two matchups this week that are currently above the mark, and while Saints-Texans may actually surpass their total of 53, Chiefs-Jaguars looks destined for the under, as it features an elite defense flanked by a determined run game.

The Jaguars' D graded out as the seventh-best unit in 2018, according to Pro Football Focus, and enters 2019 as one of the best in the league. And while the Chiefs' defense was maligned last year, it actually ranked merely below average in both PFF grades and points per game allowed.

Kansas City's offense is a joy to watch, but Jacksonville's O has yet to prove its might with new quarterback Nick Foles running the show. The Jaguars will surely try to get their ground game going to soften Foles' debut and keep the Chiefs' offense off the field. It would also slow the overall pace of the game, making it even harder to cash the over on a sky-high total.

Pick: Under

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins

Total: 37.5

Totals this low used to be a regular occurence, but we haven't seen a Week 1 game with a number below 38 since 2012. In the last six seasons, the under is 8-5 in games with a total below 38, including 6-2 across the past two years.

Much of the focus is on Miami's horrific offense versus Baltimore's stout defense, and rightly so. Yet the other side of the ball hints at the under, too. Lamar Jackson energized the Ravens' offense over the second half of last season, and his team still ended the year on a 4-1-1 under run behind a historically run-first approach.

Coach John Harbaugh has preached a commitment to that same focus this year, so this game could easily feature three or four fewer possessions than most. The Fins' defense was brutal in 2018 but was average against the run on a per-play basis. Everything about this matchup screams under - even with the paltry total.

Pick: Under

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals

Total: 47.5

Detroit's reputation as a gun-slinging team that plays no defense is hard for bettors to shake, but the Lions were one of the league's best under teams in 2018 - leading sharps to drive this total down from an opening number of 49.

Matt Patricia's squad ended the year on a seven-game under streak and a 9-1 under run in the final 10 games. The Lions then replaced pass-happy offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter with former Seahawks OC Darrell Bevell, whose offenses have routinely finished in the bottom five in passing attempts.

The Cardinals will certainly chuck it under new coach Kliff Kingsbury, but will they score? The offensive line is shaky at best, and Kyler Murray will need every ounce of athleticism to escape the Lions' burly D-line in Week 1. Don't expect either team to carry this game to 48 points.

Pick: Under

C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.