NFL Week 4 action report: Public betting the Chiefs, sharps on the Lions
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The Detroit Lions are a surprising 2-0-1 and will try to cash as an underdog for the third straight week when they host the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs Sunday. Where is the sharp money? Which lines are moving the most? Each week throughout the NFL season, we'll track the games drawing the most interest from sharp and public bettors.
We talked to Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader Jay Rood to see how sharps and public bettors are playing the Week 4 slate.
All lines courtesy of theScore Bet.
Kansas City Chiefs at Detroit Lions
Line: Chiefs -6.5
The 3-0 Chiefs travel to Detroit to face the surprising Lions, who are coming off upset wins over the Chargers and Eagles. The line opened Chiefs -6 and moved to 6.5 as of Friday.
Sometimes it's easy to predict when sharps and public bettors are on different sides of a game. This is one of those times with the public predictably hammering Kansas City and the more experienced bettors backing the home underdog.
"Right now, as you would expect, it's mostly Chiefs bets," Rood said. "The ticket count is 12-1, money is 2-1. All the sharp play is on the Lions, so this is looking like a classic 'Pros vs. Joes' situation. Average Lions bet is three times higher with almost every parlay containing the Chiefs. Public and pro bettors definitely split here. This is going to be a key game for the bookmakers this weekend."
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Line: Patriots -7
Are the Bills for real? We'll find out on Sunday. Buffalo is 3-0 but has beaten teams with a combined 1-8 record. Meanwhile, the Patriots are 3-0 after beating up on opponents that are a combined 0-9. The difference being Buffalo won its three games by a combined 19 points, while New England outscored its opponents 106-17.
The line opened Patriots -6 but moved to -7 by Friday. New England could move off the key number of 7 to 7.5 by kickoff with the public coming in strong on the favorite, especially in parlays.
"The parlays are almost exclusively all on the Patriots," Rood said. "It's literally 20-1 in parlay money in favor of the Patriots. We took a sharp play on Buffalo at +7 but most of the money is on New England. We're gonna need either the Chiefs or the Patriots to lose or it could shape up to be a rather ugly weekend for bookmakers."
New England has dominated this series over the last two decades, especially on the road, where it is 14-3 ATS in its previous 17 trips to Buffalo.
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints
Line: Cowboys -3
The Sunday night game features the 3-0 Cowboys taking on the shorthanded Saints in New Orleans. Dallas is a small road favorite with Teddy Bridgewater making his second start for the injured Drew Brees. This will be the Cowboys' toughest test to date after beating three teams with a combined record of 1-8, while the Saints return home following an impressive road win in Seattle.
While both teams are seeing money in this game, it's the total causing bookmakers the most headaches. Even without Brees, bettors are hitting over 47 in this matchup.
"Really good two-way action on this game right now," Rood said. "Ticket count is 2-1 on the Cowboys. We took one sharp play on Saints, so we moved the line from +3 (flat) to +3 (-120). The biggest decision on this game is the over. We're going to need the under pretty big Sunday night."
Most of the trends point to New Orleans in this matchup. The underdog has gone 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the home team has covered four straight.
Thomas Casale is theScore's supervising editor of sports betting. He's been following the sports betting industry for almost 30 years. A devoted fan of the wishbone offense, Thomas bets on all sports but specializes in college football, NFL, and college basketball. Find him on Twitter @TheTomCasale.