NFL Week 5 survivor picks

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Week 4 sucked. Scoring was scarce, quarterback play was appalling, games lacked suspense, and there were a ton of survivor-pool casualties.

That's right, the other shoe finally dropped. Jared Goff went full Jameis Winston. Jacoby Brissett proved he's not, in fact, Andrew Luck. Deshaun Watson and Matt Ryan combined for zero touchdown passes in a pair of losing efforts. The New Orleans Saints won a game without finding the end zone. And the Cleveland Browns dropped a 40-burger on the Baltimore Ravens. What is the NFL?

If you're still standing in your survivor pool, congratulations. Here's your guide to keeping it that way through Week 5.

Safest pick: New England Patriots

The Miami Dolphins may be on their bye, but it's no time to panic. There are lots of bad teams in the NFL right now.

In particular, I'm looking at the New York Jets and Washington Redskins this week. You can't go wrong picking the Philadelphia Eagles or New England Patriots against those bottom-dwelling teams, but due to Sam Darnold's healing spleen and potential return, the Patriots get the slight edge as the safest pick for Week 5.

The Patriots take to the road on Sunday for a date with the Redskins, but nothing about being away from Foxboro should concern Bill Belichick. Jay Gruden still hasn't named his Week 5 starting quarterback, but it doesn't matter if he goes with Case Keenum or Dwayne Haskins, or dials back the clock with Patrick Ramsey or Jason Campbell. Washington isn't hitting double digits.

The Patriots rank first in total defense, points allowed, sacks, and takeaways. It's their world, and everybody else is living in it.

The Redskins, meanwhile, just recorded more turnovers (four) than points (three) against the Giants, a team that fielded the NFL's worst pass defense going into Week 4. And now they're supposed to move the ball against the Pats? Gruden's disastrous play-calling hasn't helped matters either, and there's no reason to believe it'll improve.

Under Belichick, the Patriots are 60-6 as 10-plus point favorites (12-2 on the road), with five of those losses coming in the division, and the other one in the Super Bowl against the Giants. They're 27-0 when laying at least two touchdowns.

The Redskins, meanwhile, are 3-15 when getting seven-plus points under Gruden, whose job is hanging by a thread. They were double-digit dogs twice over that span and lost both games, including a 27-10 defeat to the Patriots in 2015.

If you're feeling lucky: Houston Texans

Speaking of coaches who will soon be unemployed, Dan Quinn is on his last legs in Atlanta. The Falcons appear soft and unmotivated in what's sure to be the final season (weeks?) for Quinn as their head coach.

There was hardly any compete left in them against the Tennessee Titans in Week 4. They were taking undisciplined penalties stemming from a lack of focus, Matt Ryan spent much of the contest screaming at his offense, Derrick Henry bullied their front seven, and Marcus Mariota torched Atlanta's secondary for three first-half touchdown passes - one fewer than he had notched through the first three weeks this season.

This isn't a rebound spot for Atlanta. If anything, it's a game when the Falcons will get beaten so badly owner Arthur Blank is forced to take action.

Instead, Deshaun Watson and the Houston Texans should bounce back here after losing at home to the Carolina Panthers in Week 4, and do so in convincing fashion against a Falcons team that looks ready for the offseason.

Avoid: New Orleans Saints

I learned my lesson. Stay far, far, far away from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. To those who played the Los Angeles Rams last week in your pool, I mourn with you. Misery loves company. Let's grab a drink.

The Bucs will never come through for you. When you need them to win, they crumble in the most theatrical fashion. When you count on them to lose, they go on to victory in Los Angeles. Or in Carolina. Or in New Orleans. The Buccaneers are an enigma, and I vow to stay far away from predicting their games the rest of the season.

But... are the Bucs actually good? You know what, let's not go down that road. All the numbers and film study in the world couldn't solve that riddle.

What I do know is Winston could toss five interceptions this week and lose 42-10 to the New Orleans Saints, or he could throw five touchdown passes and lay a beating on Teddy Bridgewater in the Big Easy.

I'm done trying to figure out which Bucs team is going to show up week-to-week. Done with it, and you should be too.

Week 5 safety rankings

Safety rankings (SR) are out of 10 based on the author's picks

Alex Moretto is a sports betting writer for theScore. A journalism graduate from Guelph-Humber University, he has worked in sports media for over a decade. He will bet on anything from the Super Bowl to amateur soccer, is too impatient for futures, and will never trust a kicker. Find him on Twitter @alexjmoretto.