NFL Week 5 over/under best bets: Expect a shootout between Falcons, Texans
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Here are the week's best over/under bets. In Week 4, we went 2-1, pushing our record to 5-1 over the last two weeks.
Atlanta Falcons at Houston Texans
Total: 49
We know the Falcons and Texans can score points. There's simply too much talent on both offenses for the two teams to stay down long. Which is why I'm expecting both units to go crazy on Sunday at NRG Stadium.
Teams only get so many chances to live up to expectations. Atlanta was thought to be righting the ship this season under offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter, only to be held to 24 points or fewer in each of the Falcons' first four games. Last week's 10-point performance in a double-digit loss to the Titans at home was the latest dud for a loaded offense that still can't put it all together.
However, all isn't lost yet because the Falcons still field the league's No. 2 passing offense. Their running game is the problem, as the team is posting 70.2 yards per game on the ground. That might change this weekend against a Texans defense that's No. 24 in yards allowed per carry this season.
Meanwhile, Houston was also held to 10 points on its home turf in a loss to the Panthers in Week 4. Carolina's pass defense is no joke this season, and getting Atlanta without Keanu Neal in the secondary should be the recipe Deshaun Watson and the Texans' offense need to get back on track.
Pick: Over
Arizona Cardinals at Cincinnati Bengals
Total: 47
Much like the thought process behind the Falcons-Texans over, the best remedy to cure some offensive struggles is playing a spotty defense. Both the Cardinals and Bengals faltered last weekend in losses, but each squad will get a chance to put up points when the two meet in Cincinnati.
Each offense is dealing with injuries. Arizona wide receiver Christian Kirk is unlikely to play after suffering an ankle injury against the Seahawks in Week 4, and Cincinnati's John Ross was placed on injured reserve due to a shoulder issue.
Those two injuries won't matter against defenses that rank in the bottom five in points allowed per game this season. The over is the play on Sunday with two offensive-minded head coaches dueling it out.
Pick: Over
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Total: 46.5
This is the perfect matchup for a potential barn burner. While watching the Cowboys play the Saints on Sunday night, I was waiting for this total to open up to play the over, and here's why.
Dallas' strength of schedule so far is concerning because of the offenses the team has faced. The Cowboys have played the Redskins, Dolphins, the Saints with Teddy Bridgewater, and the Eli Manning-led Giants.
None of those offenses can stretch the field vertically or challenge a secondary. And that's exactly why Aaron Rodgers is going to be a problem on Sunday, with or without Davante Adams healthy. This will essentially be the first time in 2019 the Cowboys face a competent quarterback who can take over a game.
After watching the Eagles do whatever they wanted offensively last Thursday, it's clear the Packers' early-season defensive statistics were skewed. Green Bay held its own against the Bears, Vikings, and Broncos, but an above-average offense exposed the club in Week 4.
The Cowboys have made some positive changes offensively with Kellen Moore calling the shots, and Dak Prescott is certainly equipped to get into a shootout with Rodgers.
Pick: Over
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.